Training a language model on data scattered across bandwidth-limited nodes that cannot be centralized is a setting that arises in clinical networks, enterprise knowledge bases, and scientific consortia. We study the regime in which data must remain distributed across nodes, and ask what statistical guarantees are in principle achievable under explicit bandwidth budgets; we aim to characterize what is provably possible, not to demonstrate a deployment-ready system. Existing theory treats either training-time consistency or inference-time calibration in isolation, and none makes bandwidth a first-class statistical parameter. We analyze two protocols, Federated Probe-Logit Distillation (FPLD) for training and Federated Conformal RAG (FC-RAG) for inference, as the analytical vehicles for our results. Our first main result is an explicit high-probability KL-consistency rate for FPLD with simultaneous dependence on node count $K$, per-node sample size $n$, quantization budget $B$, probe-set size $m$, and vocabulary size $V$; bandwidth enters only through an exponentially vanishing quantization term. Our second main result is a distribution-free marginal-coverage bound for FC-RAG, whose novel retrieval-bandwidth slack $Δ_{\mathrm{RAG}} = f_{\max}\sqrt{K^{-2}\sum_i v(B_i)}$ makes per-node retrieval bandwidth a first-class statistical parameter, with arithmetic aggregation across $K$ nodes shrinking the slack as $K^{-1/2}$ in the per-node-uniform regime. A Pinsker-type corollary composes the two bounds into an end-to-end coverage guarantee. Synthetic experiments verify the predicted scaling along the bounds' parameters; small-scale experiments on a GPT-2 testbed illustrate that the qualitative bandwidth-accuracy tradeoff survives on a real language model. A deployment-scale empirical evaluation is out of scope.

In this paper, we study the problem of sampling from a distribution under the constraint of differential privacy (DP). Prior works measure the utility of DP sampling with density ratio-based measures such as KL divergence. However, such formulations suffer from two key limitations: 1) they fail to capture the geometric structure of the support, and 2) they are not applicable when the supports of the distributions differ. To deal with these issues, we develop a novel framework for DP sampling with Wasserstein distance as the utility measure. In this formulation, we propose Wasserstein Projection Mechanism (WPM), a minimax optimal mechanism based on Wasserstein projection. Furthermore, we develop efficient algorithms for computing the proposed mechanisms approximately and provide convergence guarantees.

Generative models trained on finite data face a fundamental tension: their score-matching or next-token objective converges to the empirical training distribution rather than the population distribution we seek to learn. Using rule-valid synthetic tasks, we trace this tension across two training timescales: $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$, the step at which generations first become rule-valid, and $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$, the step at which models begin reproducing training samples. Focusing on parity and extending to other binary rules and combinatorial puzzles, we characterize how these two clocks, $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$ and $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$, depend on key aspects of the learning setup. Specifically, we show that $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$ increases with rule complexity and decreases with model capacity, while $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$ is approximately invariant to the rule and scales nearly linearly with dataset size $N$. We define the \emph{innovation window} as the interval $[τ_{\mathrm{rule}}, τ_{\mathrm{mem}}]$. This window widens with increasing $N$ and narrows with rule complexity, and may vanish entirely when $τ_{\mathrm{rule}} \geq τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$. The same two-clock structure arises in both diffusion (DiT) and autoregressive (GPT) models, with architecture-dependent offsets. Dissecting the learned score of DiT models reveals a corresponding evolution of the optimization landscapes, where rule-valid samples' basins expand substantially around $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$, while training samples' basins begin to dominate around $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$. Together, these results yield a unified and predictive account of when and how generative models exhibit genuine innovation.

Thompson sampling is a widely used strategy for contextual bandits: at each round, it samples a reward function from a Bayesian posterior and acts greedily under that sample. Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs), such as TabPFN v2+ and TabICL v2, are attractive candidates for this purpose because they approximate Bayesian posterior predictive distributions in a single forward pass. However, PFNs predict noisy future rewards, while Thompson sampling requires uncertainty over the latent mean reward function. We propose PFN-TS, a Thompson sampling algorithm that converts PFN posterior predictives into mean-reward samples using a subsampled predictive central limit theorem. The method estimates posterior variance from a geometric grid of $O(\log n)$ dataset prefixes rather than the full $O(n)$ predictive sequence used in previous predictive-sequence approaches, and reuses TabICL's cached representations across rounds. We prove consistency of the subsampled variance estimator and give a Bayesian regret bound that decomposes PFN-TS regret into exact posterior-sampling regret under the PFN prior plus approximation terms. Empirically, PFN-TS achieves the best average rank across nonlinear synthetic and OpenML classification-to-bandit benchmarks, remains competitive on linear and BART-generated rewards, and attains the highest estimated policy value in an offline mobile-health evaluation. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PFN_TS-36ED/.

Recent work on causal abstraction, in particular graphical approaches focusing on causal structure between clusters of variables, aims to summarize a high-dimensional causal structure in terms of a low-dimensional one. Existing methods for learning such summaries from data assume that both the high- and low-dimensional structures are acyclic, which is helpful for causal effect identification and reasoning but excludes many high-dimensional models and thus limits applicability. We show that in the linear non-Gaussian (LiNG) setting, the high-dimensional acyclicity assumption can be relaxed while still allowing recovery of a low-dimensional causal directed acyclic graph (DAG). We further connect identifiability of this low-dimensional DAG to existing results: LiNG models with cycles are observationally identifiable only up to an equivalence class whose members differ by reversals of directed cycles; our low-dimensional DAG, which is invariant across all members of a given equivalence class, thus forms a natural representative of the class. While existing approaches for learning this observational equivalence class over high-dimensional variables have exponential time complexity, our low-dimensional summary is learned in worst-case cubic time and comes with explicit bounds on the sample complexity. We provide open source code and experiments on synthetic data to corroborate our theoretical results.

Dense Associative Memory (DenseAM) is a promising family of AI architectures that is represented by a neural network performing temporal dynamics on an energy landscape. While hyperparameter transfer methods are well-studied for feed-forward networks, these methods have not been developed for settings in which weights are shared across layers and within the layer, which is common in DenseAMs. Additionally, DenseAMs utilize rapidly peaking activation functions that are rarely used in feed-forward architectures. The confluence of these aspects makes DenseAM a challenging framework for using existing methods for hyperparameter transfer. Our work initiates the development of hyperparameter transfer methods for this class of models. We derive explicit prescriptions for how the hyperparameters tuned on small models can be transferred to models trained at scale. We demonstrate excellent agreement between these theoretical findings and empirical results.

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

Operator learning for partial differential equations (PDEs) aims to learn solution operators on infinite-dimensional function spaces from finite-resolution data. In this setting, it is important for the learned model to be discretization-invariant, or resolution-robust, and to reflect PDE-specific structure. It is therefore natural to ask how such structure should be encoded in the model architecture, hypothesis class, or learning procedure. In this paper, we study operator learning for solution operators of nonlinear parabolic PDEs based on Duhamel--Picard iteration. We formulate Picard iteration as an abstract state-transition model and present a theoretical framework for Picard-type operator learning. We derive implementation-agnostic generalization error bounds that separate the implementation error from the estimation error associated with the abstract state-transition model induced by Picard iteration. A key consequence is that increasing the Picard depth reduces the Picard truncation error without causing an unbounded growth of the entropy-based estimation error. We also extend the analysis to long-time prediction by rolling out the same learned local model over successive time blocks. Finally, we illustrate the theory for nonlinear heat equations on the torus using a Picard-type Fourier neural operator as a concrete implementation.

We present a theoretically grounded Gaussian process framework that leverages neural feature maps to construct expressive kernels. We show that the learned feature map can be interpreted as an optimal low-rank approximation to a Gram matrix derived from an implied RKHS, from which we establish consistency of the GP posterior. We further analyse the spectral properties of the induced kernels and introduce product feature-map kernels to address oversmoothing. This simple yet powerful approach enables fast, scalable, and accurate exact GP inference with minimal upfront work. The flexibility of kernel design supports seamless application to both regression and classification tasks across diverse data modalities, including tabular inputs and structured domains such as images.

Data augmentation (DA) is now a standard ingredient in modern machine learning pipelines, with extensive empirical evidence reporting improvements in generalization across modalities and tasks Mumuni and Mumuni (2022); Wang et al. (2025). It is often used to encode task-relevant symmetries directly into the training procedure, for instance by encouraging invariance to image rotations or other transformations of the input Shorten and Khoshgoftaar (2019); Chen et al. (2020). It has also been identified as one of the most effective regularization techniques across both supervised learning settings Bishop (1995); Cubuk et al. (2019); Mumuni and Mumuni (2022); Wang et al. (2025) and self-supervised/unsupervised learning Feng et al. (2021); Van Assel et al. (2025). Domain-specific augmentation pipelines have been central to progress in computer vision Shorten and Khoshgoftaar (2019); Kumar et al. (2024), natural language processing Feng et al. (2021); Shorten et al. (2021); Bayer et al. (2022), and time-series or audio applications Wen et al. (2020); Iwana and Uchida (2021); Iglesias et al. (2023). Despite these empirical successes, the benefits of DA remain highly task-and data-dependent, and augmentation schemes are often engineered in an ad hoc manner Fawzi et al. (2016); Cubuk et al. (2019); Lim et al. (2019); Hataya et al. (2020). In contrast with this rich empirical literature, comprehensive theoretical analyses of DA remain relatively scarce. Two classical starting points are, first, the interpretation of additive Gaussian noise as a form of explicit (ridge-like) regularization Bishop (1995); Lin et al. (2024), and second, the idea that leveraging distributional invariances and group structure in the learning objective helps decrease the variance of the model without increasing its bias Chen et al. (2020). Yet, when applied to modern and complex augmentation schemes, these works either provide only upper bounds on the generalization error Lin et al. (2024), or require very strong assumptions on the data distribution (e.g.