Estimating how an outcome responds to a continuous treatment (the Average Dose-Response Function, or ADRF) is a core causal-inference primitive. However, when outcomes possess heavy tails, standard robust double machine learning (DML) deliberately suppresses these extremes to stabilize the bulk average. In high-stakes settings, such as financial returns or climate losses, this omitted 1-in-1000 extreme event is the actual target quantity. Furthermore, current methods that read the tail from a model's residuals suffer from circular dependence, causing tail shape inferences to shift drastically based solely on whether the core estimator is switched between Huber and Welsch.The research proposes an ADRF estimator that emits a structured tail-shape output alongside the standard point estimate. Its tail diagnostic (PDHTE+JK) evaluates the per-treatment tail shape from the outcome centered by a pilot median, successfully breaking the circular dependence and rendering the diagnostic invariant to the choice of core method. The output encompasses four treatment-conditional quantities: tail shape $\hatξ(t)$, deep-tail return levels $\hat{Q}_α(t)$, conditional shortfalls $\hat{S}_α(t)$, the recovered mean ADRF, and an explicit refusal mechanism that declines extrapolation when extreme-value modeling is unsupported by the data. Compared to kernel-weighted quantile regression (QR), the proposed estimator reduces deep-tail ($α=0.001$) return-level MAE by 11% and conditional-shortfall MAE by 25.5% across a heavy-tailed panel. It also achieves a 20-29% MAE reduction in sample-scarce regimes ($n\le2000$). On freMTPL2 motor-insurance claims, it successfully triggered an explicit extrapolation refusal on the log-claim scale, which neither QR nor loss-only DML can produce.

Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a protocol for observational causal discovery on continuous data that attaches to each candidate edge a discrete impossibility certificate: a RESOLVED code records the identifiability theorem under which the direction was committed, while an IMPOSSIBLE code records the failure mode together with the specific question a domain expert must answer to resolve it. The bivariate cascade is extended with five gated identifiability tiers LSNM, IGCI, Stein, MDL, and PEIT that abstain when their precondition test rejects. Two oracle primitives, the meta-hub query and the node-children query, jointly establish an upper bound of $1+K$ expert interactions sufficient to recover any DAG, where $K$ denotes the number of non-leaf vertices. Under an ideal-oracle assumption, the bound is met exactly on the asia, sachs, child, and alarm benchmarks.

Flow and diffusion generative models have established themselves as widely adopted density estimators for simulation-based inference (SBI), extending naturally from neural posterior estimation to likelihood and joint density estimation. Their principled optimization objectives and freedom from architectural constraints have driven rapid adoption across the natural sciences. Yet the most widely used SBI libraries remain PyTorch-based, leaving researchers who develop their forward models and analysis pipelines in JAX without a native option. We present GenSBI, an open-source library that implements flow matching, score matching, and denoising diffusion entirely in JAX. The library offers three transformer-based architectures -- SimFormer, Flux1, and a novel Flux1Joint that extends gate-modulated transformer blocks to joint density estimation -- all interchangeable through a unified interface that decouples generative method, neural backbone, and inference mode. GenSBI provides an end-to-end workflow from training through posterior calibration (SBC, TARP, LC2ST) and supports custom architectures with domain-specific embedding networks.

Deep generative models offer powerful tools for multivariate data analysis, but their black-box architectures are often unidentified and difficult to interpret. We introduce the Deep Discrete Encoder (DDE) Copula, an identifiable and interpretable generative model for multivariate data with arbitrary marginal distributions. The model places a hierarchical directed network of binary latent variables inside a copula framework, enabling flexible dependence modeling for mixed discrete and continuous data. Estimation is based on rank likelihoods, which decouple marginal modeling from posterior inference on the DDE parameters and avoid specifying the marginal distributions. We establish conditions for identification of the DDE copula parameters, ensuring that layer-specific parameters provide meaningful summaries of multivariate dependence. We also prove quotient-space posterior consistency for continuous margins under the exact rank likelihood and treat the extended rank likelihood for tied or mixed margins as a generalized likelihood, with concentration under an additional contrast condition. For computation, we propose a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm for \emph{maximum a posteriori} estimation, together with initialization strategies that improve convergence. To learn network dimension adaptively, we extend Bayesian rank-selection priors to infer layer-specific widths. Simulations show strong finite-sample performance, and a personality-survey analysis reveals interpretable hierarchical latent structure in complex multivariate data.

We develop semiparametrically efficient inference for kernel measures of noise heterogeneity in additive noise models. In many applications, the regression function is estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Downstream procedures based on the resulting residuals can then inherit first-stage bias: regression error may induce spurious dependence between covariates and residuals, invalidating the assumptions needed for standard analysis. We construct a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator of the kernel covariance operator between covariates and residuals. Our estimator yields bootstrap-calibrated tests for residual independence and goodness of fit in additive noise models, while also providing asymptotically efficient confidence intervals for the kernel dependence measure under noise heterogeneity. The framework extends to settings with additional covariates, enabling inference on distributional heterogeneity of residual noise across treatment groups. Simulations show improved calibration and power relative to naive plug-in residual methods.

We introduce Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges for Time Series (TR-SBTS), a conservative extension of the SBTS framework in which the Brownian reference is replaced by an intervalwise frozen, possibly degenerate diffusion reference, triangular across a hierarchy of latent volatility levels. The construction is a single entropy projection on the augmented state space, with the variational constraint imposed jointly across time and the latent levels and unfolded hierarchically by the disintegration of relative entropy. The variational core of SBTS is preserved: the entropy minimiser is the h-transform of the reference, and on each frozen interval the optimal dynamics admit a logarithmic-gradient drift formula on the affine leaves of the active covariance directions, valid even when the frozen covariance is rank-deficient. We establish stability of the frozen approximation and convergence of the corresponding regularised kernel estimators. The construction is realised through a finite-dimensional conditioning map assembled from three complementary reductions of the past -- a block PCR summary, a reference-aware Mahalanobis kernel on past increments induced by the runtime frozen covariance cumulants, and a past-window WLS drift regressor under the same reference metric -- together with a coupled state-covariance bridge step in which each latent level produces a dynamic reference for the level above, summarised by a covariance descriptor; the construction is evaluated on numerical experiments.

High-fidelity simulation models are widely used to analyze complex stochastic systems, but their high computational cost motivates the development of cheaper surrogate models that approximate the simulation model's input-output relationship. In parallel, reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful framework for making online decisions in stochastic environments, with increasing attention being given to the use of simulation models as training environments for RL models. We investigate a class of surrogate models suitable for accelerating RL training in settings where the reward structure, model parameters, or system dynamics change over time and explore their interactions with simulation models and RL models. Through numerical experiments on a stochastic service system modeled via discrete-event simulation, we demonstrate that leveraging surrogate models can substantially accelerate RL training and re-training.

Card payment fraud detection is usually framed as a supervised classification problem. Although this approach has generated practical progress, improvement has remained incremental despite major advances in model architecture. We argue that this is not mainly a failure of function approximation or optimization, but a consequence of structural information impairments inherent to the payment ecosystem. We formalize card authorization as a sequential decision problem with delayed, censored, corrupted, and counterfactually missing feedback. We derive a minimax regret lower bound showing that these impairments enter multiplicatively in the denominator of the achievable learning rate. The bound implies that improving issuer reporting quality or reducing censorship can yield larger reductions in the regret floor than increasing model complexity. We also show that heterogeneity across issuers worsens learnability beyond what average impairment rates suggest. The paper contributes a theory of why fraud detection in payment networks is fundamentally harder than in standard online learning settings, identifies ecosystem information quality as the key bottleneck, and provides a theoretical basis for prioritizing investments in reporting infrastructure, dispute process quality, and selective exploration. The paper is theory-first and does not rely on proprietary transaction data.

Simone Bombari asked us whether the 1-bit quantized random vector Y = sgn(Wx) has subgaussian norm bounded by a universal constant. Here W is an n n random Gaussian matrix, and x is an independent standard normal random vector in Rn. The question is nontrivial since the coordinates of Y are not independent. We give a strong positive answer to this question - for any bounded map instead of sgn() - using AI: AIDiscovery and Generalization (Theorem 1): To handle coordinate dependence, Gemini 3.5 Flash1 proposed decomposing the Gaussian vector into independent parts, using one part to "smooth" the sign function, and then applying Gaussian concentration for Lipschitz functions.

We study the problem of computationally efficient proper agnostic learning of multidimensional concept classes under the Gaussian distribution. In this setting, given i.i.d. labeled samples from an unknown distribution over $\mathbb{R}^d \times \{\pm 1\}$ whose marginal on $\mathbb{R}^d$ is Gaussian, the goal is to output a hypothesis from a target class $\mathcal{F}$ whose 0-1 loss is within $ε$ of that of the best classifier in $\mathcal{F}$. We give the first efficient proper agnostic learning algorithm for arbitrary Boolean functions of $K$ halfspaces under Gaussian marginals. Our algorithm runs in time $d^{O(K^2 \log(1/ε)/ε^2)} + (K/ε)^{O(K^3/ε^{2.5})}$. Prior to our work, the only known algorithm for $K \geq 2$ was brute-force search, with run-time exponential in $d$. Moreover, the dependence of our run-time on the dimension $d$ matches that of the best known improper learning algorithm, namely $d^{\widetilde{O}(K^2/ε^2)}$. For the special case of a single halfspace ($K=1$), the best previous run-time was $d^{O(1/ε^4)} + (1/ε)^{O(1/ε^6)}$. Our algorithm improves this to $d^{O(1/ε^2)} + (1/ε)^{O(1/ε^{2.5})}$. Once again, the dependence on $d$ matches that of the best known improper algorithm, namely $d^{O(1/ε^2)}$. Furthermore, the dependence of our run-time on the dimension $d$ is essentially optimal in the statistical query model.