The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a minimalist Bayesian framework that places a prior only on the location of the optimum, while eliminating nuisance parameters through profile likelihood. This yields a generalized posterior that naturally accommodates structural constraints. As a direct instantiation, we develop MINimalist Thompson Sampling (MINTS). For multi-armed bandits with mean constraints, we establish near-optimal non-asymptotic regret guarantees and sharp almost-sure asymptotic regret characterizations. In particular, MINTS attains the classical Lai--Robbins constant in the unstructured setting and automatically adapts to unimodal structure, achieving the sharp constant determined only by the immediate neighbors of the optimal arm.

We study quantile regression in an extrapolation regime where the covariate takes unusually large values. Under regular variation assumptions, extreme observations can be effectively characterized through their angular components, enabling learning strategies that focus on the angle of the most extreme observations. This approach is formalized through the minimization of an asymptotic conditional risk that localizes learning in the tail of the covariate distribution. We propose a novel Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework for extreme quantile regression, leveraging reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to handle high-dimensional and nonlinear settings. Our method also accommodates unbounded response variables and avoids restrictive transformations. We establish finite-sample learning guarantees under mild regularity assumptions. The proposed framework unifies ideas from statistical learning and multivariate extremes, providing a tractable and theoretically grounded approach to extrapolation. We complement our theoretical findings with an empirical study on river flow data from the Danube, demonstrating the practical relevance of our methods.

Voters deliver verdict on embattled'womanizer' and Nazi-tattooed candidate in crucial Maine race that could determine Senate power balance I watched footage of the race crime that split America. My compulsive bathroom habit that so many are guilty of left me in excruciating pain. DR STUART reveals early signs... cures that work in days... and when to worry Nancy Mace is OUSTED from politics after Trump extracts Epstein'revenge' in South Carolina governor's race Leaked transcript of UNAIRED 60 Minutes interview exposes REAL reason'callous' CBS star Scott Pelley'deserved to be fired' She's always by Trump's side, trusted with the White House's biggest secrets... and she influences millions Woke Canadian lawmakers fly into hilarious rage after conservative asks country's top scientist to define a woman Austin Metcalf's heartbroken father tells court how son's death destroyed him: 'We were robbed' Eva Longoria reunites with ex Tony Parker 15 years after cheating scandal split... as shocked fans react Inside Travis Kelce's plan to become'the Shaq of the NFL' after wedding Taylor Swift Zodiac killer case takes bombshell turn as unsolved cipher is CRACKED... and America's top codebreakers say evidence is all pointing to one man Caitlyn Jenner biographer and Robin Riker's ex William Hasley found dead on hiking trail at 78 Trump ERUPTS behind closed doors as top Republican pleads with him to axe Tulsi Gabbard's spy-chief replacement Are you over 45 and looking for a new job? If AI is to be believed, you might be too old. Scientists from the University of Melbourne asked ChatGPT for help finding candidates for fictional roles, and found a clear bias towards younger applicants.

We study true self-avoiding walk (TSAW) as a mechanism for improving empirical integral estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We consider finite-state adaptive sampling dynamics associated with an irreducible Markov kernel $P$ on a finite set, with stationary distribution $π$, in which the transition probabilities are penalized according to empirical overuse. Our main result is that the empirical occupation counts $L_t(i)$ and transition counts $N_t(i,j)$ of the resulting TSAW-based walk satisfy \[ L_t(i)-tπ_i = O(\sqrt{\log t}) \quad\text{and}\quad N_t(i,j)-tπ_iP_{ij}=O(\sqrt{\log t}) \qquad\text{almost surely} \] for every state $i$ and every edge $(i,j)$ with $P_{ij}>0$. Consequently, for every bounded function $f:V\to\mathbb R$, the error of our integral estimator converges as \[ \left|\frac1t\sum_{s=0}^{t-1} f(X_s)-\sum_{i\in V}π_i f(i)\right| = O\left(\frac{\sqrt{\log t}}{t}\right) \qquad\text{almost surely}. \] These results show that, in contrast with the usual $t^{-1/2}$ error scaling for empirical averages under standard random-walk-based methods, TSAW-based estimator yields empirical integral errors of order $O(\sqrt{\log t}/t)$ almost surely, thereby achieving a substantially sharper dependence on the sample size $t$.

We study stochastic linear bandits under a natural combination of batching and communication constraints: the time horizon is partitioned into batches of equal size $B$, and during each batch the learner sends $B$ requested arm pulls to an agent, who then observes the corresponding $B$ rewards and responds with a single bit of feedback to the learner. For each batch, the learner specifies the 1-bit quantization rule the agent uses, which may depend on all previously received bits but not on any past rewards directly. This setting addresses a significant yet unexplored ``middle ground'' between previous models having per-round quantization only or total bit budgets only. We establish a minimax lower bound showing that $Ω(B\min\{d,\log\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert\})$ regret is unavoidable due to the 1-bit communication bottleneck, even in the absence of noise. Combined with standard statistical limits, this yields a general lower bound of $\widetildeΩ(B\min\{d,\log\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert\} + \sqrt{dT \min\{d,\log\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert\}})$. We develop two phased-elimination algorithms based on $G$-optimal designs and 1-bit mean estimation. The first achieves $\widetilde{O}(dB + d\sqrt{T})$ regret, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors when $\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert = \exp(Ω(d))$, and the second incorporates a safe-arm identification and warm-start procedure to obtain $\widetilde{O}(B\log\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert + d^{3/2}\sqrt{B} + \sqrt{dT\log\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert})$ regret, which is near-optimal in broad scaling regimes of $(\lvert \mathcal{A} \rvert, B, d, T)$. Together, our results demonstrate that a single bit of feedback per batch suffices to nearly match the minimax regret of unconstrained linear bandits in broad scaling regimes, even for batch sizes as large as $Θ(\sqrt{T})$.

Fraud detection in payment networks relies on labels generated through heterogeneous and imperfect observation processes, yet existing approaches treat fraud as a homogeneous binary variable. We show that this assumption is structurally incorrect and leads to provable inefficiency. We introduce an observation-mechanism taxonomy that partitions fraud into five classes, each defined by a distinct censorship and labeling pipeline. We prove that estimating fraud rates separately by class and aggregating strictly dominates pooled estimation, with the efficiency gap characterized as a Jensen penalty arising from heterogeneous observation rates. For each class, we derive the binding theoretical constraint on detection, including endogenous label corruption, structural non-observability, and feature non-informativeness. These results establish that fraud detection is fundamentally a collection of distinct estimation problems, each governed by its own observation structure and detection limit.

This paper studies how efficiently deep ReLU neural networks can approximate and learn smooth functions. When the error is measured in $L^p([0,1]^d)$ norm and the approximator is a network with width $W$ and depth $L$, recent works have proven the supper approximation rate $\mathcal{O}((WL)^{-2s/d})$ for Besov space $\mathcal{B}^s_{q,r}([0,1]^d)$ under the Sobolev embedding condition $s/d>1/q-1/p$. In order to overcome the curse of dimensionality in this rate, we extent this result to anisotropic and mixed smooth function classes. We establish the approximation rate $\mathcal{O}((WL)^{-2\tilde{s}})$ for anisotropic Besov space $\mathcal{B}^{\boldsymbol{s}}_{q,r}([0,1]^d)$ with anisotropic smoothness $\boldsymbol{s}=(s_1,\dots,s_d)$ under the embedding condition $\tilde{s} > 1/q-1/p$, where the mean smoothness $\tilde{s} = (\sum_{i=1}^d s_i^{-1})^{-1}$. For mixed smooth Besov space $\mathcal{MB}^s_{q,r}([0,1]^d)$ with mixed smoothness $s>1/q-1/p$, we show that the approximation rate $\mathcal{O}((WL)^{-2s})$ holds up to logarithmic factors. Using these results, we also derive approximation bounds for the composition of anisotropic Besov functions. As an application, it is shown that deep ReLU neural networks can achieve minimax optimal rates up to logarithmic factors for a wide range of smooth function classes.

Throughout his time as Russian President, Vladimir Putin has been alert to the power of visual imagery. The first time I interviewed him in 2001, an aide swooped in just before the cameras went live and snatched away the small water glasses on the table in front of us. Why did you do that? We wouldn't want anyone to think they were for vodka, came the reply. And anyway, we can't risk a glass spilling live on TV.

A majority stake of the indie game publisher Playstack is being sold to an investment company called Integrated Media Company (IMG). As first reported by Game Developer, the owner of the publisher behind hits like Balatro and is selling an 84.5 percent stake to a subsidiary of IMG called VantageCo Limited for £112.4 million, or around $151 million. Playstack also released a brief and vague statement from its founder and CEO, Harvey Elliott, that said this step represented a change in ownership, rather than a change in who we are. IMG's portfolio didn't previously include video game publishers but the company also owns the Fandom umbrella of brands, which includes Fandom, GameSpot, metacritic and more. It's hard to say what this acquisition means for the deck-building roguelite that won the hearts of the Engadget squad after its release in 2024.

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