The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.

This paper presents a multi-sensor fusion strategy for a novel road-matching method designed to support real-time navigational features within advanced driving-assistance systems. Managing multihypotheses is a useful strategy for the road-matching problem. The multi-sensor fusion and multi-modal estimation are realized using Dynamical Bayesian Network. Experimental results, using data from Antilock Braking System (ABS) sensors, a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and an accurate digital roadmap, illustrate the performances of this approach, especially in ambiguous situations.

I postulate that human or other intelligent agents function or should function as follows. They store all sensory observations as they come - the data is holy. At any time, given some agent's current coding capabilities, part of the data is compressible by a short and hopefully fast program / description / explanation / world model. In the agent's subjective eyes, such data is more regular and more "beautiful" than other data. It is well-known that knowledge of regularity and repeatability may improve the agent's ability to plan actions leading to external rewards. In absence of such rewards, however, known beauty is boring. Then "interestingness" becomes the first derivative of subjective beauty: as the learning agent improves its compression algorithm, formerly apparently random data parts become subjectively more regular and beautiful. Such progress in compressibility is measured and maximized by the curiosity drive: create action sequences that extend the observation history and yield previously unknown / unpredictable but quickly learnable algorithmic regularity. We discuss how all of the above can be naturally implemented on computers, through an extension of passive unsupervised learning to the case of active data selection: we reward a general reinforcement learner (with access to the adaptive compressor) for actions that improve the subjective compressibility of the growing data. An unusually large breakthrough in compressibility deserves the name "discovery". The "creativity" of artists, dancers, musicians, pure mathematicians can be viewed as a by-product of this principle. Several qualitative examples support this hypothesis.

In this paper, we propose a simple arithmetic of linguistic labels which allows a direct extension of quantitative Belief Conditioning Rules (BCR) proposed in the DSmT [3, 4] framework to their qualitative counterpart. Qualitative beliefs assignments are well adapted for manipulated information expressed in natural language and usually reported by human expert or AIbased expert systems. A new method for computing directly with words (CW) for combining and conditioning qualitative information is presented. CW, more precisely computing with linguistic labels, is usually more vague, less precise than computing with numbers, but it is expected to offer a better robustness and flexibility for combining uncertain and conflicting human reports than computing with numbers because in most of cases human experts are less efficient to provide (and to justify) precise quantitative beliefs than qualitative beliefs. Before extending the quantitative DSmT-based conditioning rules to their qualitative counterparts, it will be necessary to define few but new important operators on linguistic labels and what is a qualitative belief assignment. Then we will show though simple examples how the combination of qualitative beliefs can be obtained in the DSmT framework.

When Kurt Goedel layed the foundations of theoretical computer science in 1931, he also introduced essential concepts of the theory of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Although much of subsequent AI research has focused on heuristics, which still play a major role in many practical AI applications, in the new millennium AI theory has finally become a full-fledged formal science, with important optimality results for embodied agents living in unknown environments, obtained through a combination of theory a la Goedel and probability theory. Here we look back at important milestones of AI history, mention essential recent results, and speculate about what we may expect from the next 25 years, emphasizing the significance of the ongoing dramatic hardware speedups, and discussing Goedel-inspired, self-referential, self-improving universal problem solvers.

We argue for a compositional semantics grounded in a strongly typed ontology that reflects our commonsense view of the world and the way we talk about it in ordinary language. Assuming the existence of such a structure, we show that the semantics of various natural language phenomena may become nearly trivial.

This article presents a technique for proving problems hard for classes of the polynomial hierarchy or for PSPACE. The rationale of this technique is that some problem restrictions are able to simulate existential or universal quantifiers. If this is the case, reductions from Quantified Boolean Formulae (QBF) to these restrictions can be transformed into reductions from QBFs having one more quantifier in the front. This means that a proof of hardness of a problem at level n in the polynomial hierarchy can be split into n separate proofs, which may be simpler than a proof directly showing a reduction from a class of QBFs to the considered problem.

This paper proposes a new neuro-rough model for modelling the risk of HIV from demographic data. The model is formulated using Bayesian framework and trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Metropolis criterion. When the model was tested to estimate the risk of HIV infection given the demographic data it was found to give the accuracy of 62% as opposed to 58% obtained from a Bayesian formulated rough set model trained using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and 62% obtained from a Bayesian formulated multi-layered perceptron (MLP) model trained using hybrid Monte. The proposed model is able to combine the accuracy of the Bayesian MLP model and the transparency of Bayesian rough set model. Keywords: Neuro-rough model, multi-layered perceptron, Bayesian, HIV modelling Introduction The role of machine learning is to be able to make predictions given a set of inputs.

Numerous formalisms and dedicated algorithms have been designed in the last decades to model and solve decision making problems. Some formalisms, such as constraint networks, can express "simple" decision problems, while others are designed to take into account uncertainties, unfeasible decisions, and utilities. Even in a single formalism, several variants are often proposed to model different types of uncertainty (probability, possibility...) or utility (additive or not). In this article, we introduce an algebraic graphical model that encompasses a large number of such formalisms: (1) we first adapt previous structures from Friedman, Chu and Halpern for representing uncertainty, utility, and expected utility in order to deal with generic forms of sequential decision making; (2) on these structures, we then introduce composite graphical models that express information via variables linked by "local" functions, thanks to conditional independence; (3) on these graphical models, we finally define a simple class of queries which can represent various scenarios in terms of observabilities and controllabilities. A natural decision-tree semantics for such queries is completed by an equivalent operational semantics, which induces generic algorithms. The proposed framework, called the Plausibility-Feasibility-Utility (PFU) framework, not only provides a better understanding of the links between existing formalisms, but it also covers yet unpublished frameworks (such as possibilistic influence diagrams) and unifies formalisms such as quantified boolean formulas and influence diagrams. Our backtrack and variable elimination generic algorithms are a first step towards unified algorithms.

We try a conceptual analysis of inheritance diagrams, first in abstract terms, and then compare to "normality" and the "small/big sets" of preferential and related reasoning. The main ideas are about nodes as truth values and information sources, truth comparison by paths, accessibility or relevance of information by paths, relative normality, and prototypical reasoning.