Automated reasoning about uncertain knowledge has many applications. One difficulty when developing such systems is the lack of a completely satisfactory integration of logic and probability. We address this problem directly. Expressive languages like higher-order logic are ideally suited for representing and reasoning about structured knowledge. Uncertain knowledge can be modeled by using graded probabilities rather than binary truth-values. The main technical problem studied in this paper is the following: Given a set of sentences, each having some probability of being true, what probability should be ascribed to other (query) sentences? A natural wish-list, among others, is that the probability distribution (i) is consistent with the knowledge base, (ii) allows for a consistent inference procedure and in particular (iii) reduces to deductive logic in the limit of probabilities being 0 and 1, (iv) allows (Bayesian) inductive reasoning and (v) learning in the limit and in particular (vi) allows confirmation of universally quantified hypotheses/sentences. We translate this wish-list into technical requirements for a prior probability and show that probabilities satisfying all our criteria exist. We also give explicit constructions and several general characterizations of probabilities that satisfy some or all of the criteria and various (counter) examples. We also derive necessary and sufficient conditions for extending beliefs about finitely many sentences to suitable probabilities over all sentences, and in particular least dogmatic or least biased ones. We conclude with a brief outlook on how the developed theory might be used and approximated in autonomous reasoning agents. Our theory is a step towards a globally consistent and empirically satisfactory unification of probability and logic.

Back-propagation algorithm is one of the most widely used and popular techniques to optimize the feed forward neural network training. Nature inspired meta-heuristic algorithms also provide derivative-free solution to optimize complex problem. Artificial bee colony algorithm is a nature inspired meta-heuristic algorithm, mimicking the foraging or food source searching behaviour of bees in a bee colony and this algorithm is implemented in several applications for an improved optimized outcome. The proposed method in this paper includes an improved artificial bee colony algorithm based back-propagation neural network training method for fast and improved convergence rate of the hybrid neural network learning method. The result is analysed with the genetic algorithm based back-propagation method, and it is another hybridized procedure of its kind. Analysis is performed over standard data sets, reflecting the light of efficiency of proposed method in terms of convergence speed and rate.

We construct an extension of diffusion geometry to multiple modalities through joint approximate diagonalization of Laplacian matrices. This naturally extends classical data analysis tools based on spectral geometry, such as diffusion maps and spectral clustering. We provide several synthetic and real examples of manifold learning, retrieval, and clustering demonstrating that the joint diffusion geometry frequently better captures the inherent structure of multi-modal data. We also show that many previous attempts to construct multimodal spectral clustering can be seen as particular cases of joint approximate diagonalization of the Laplacians.

This paper provides lower bounds on the convergence rate of Derivative Free Optimization (DFO) with noisy function evaluations, exposing a fundamental and unavoidable gap between the performance of algorithms with access to gradients and those with access to only function evaluations. However, there are situations in which DFO is unavoidable, and for such situations we propose a new DFO algorithm that is proved to be near optimal for the class of strongly convex objective functions. A distinctive feature of the algorithm is that it uses only Boolean-valued function comparisons, rather than function evaluations. This makes the algorithm useful in an even wider range of applications, such as optimization based on paired comparisons from human subjects, for example. We also show that regardless of whether DFO is based on noisy function evaluations or Boolean-valued function comparisons, the convergence rate is the same.

We show that the herding procedure of Welling (2009) takes exactly the form of a standard convex optimization algorithm--namely a conditional gradient algorithm minimizing a quadratic moment discrepancy. This link enables us to invoke convergence results from convex optimization and to consider faster alternatives for the task of approximating integrals in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We study the behavior of the different variants through numerical simulations. The experiments indicate that while we can improve over herding on the task of approximating integrals, the original herding algorithm tends to approach more often the maximum entropy distribution, shedding more light on the learning bias behind herding.

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that is useful for analysing from a microeconomic perspective the incentives to entry, permanence and exit in the market for pharmaceutical generics under fuzzy conditions. In an empirical application of our proposed methodology, the potential towards permanence of labs with different characteristics has been estimated. The case we deal with is set in an open market where global players diversify into different national markets of pharmaceutical generics. Risk issues are significantly important in deterring decision makers from expanding in the generic pharmaceutical business. However, not all players are affected in the same way and/or to the same extent. Small, non-diversified generics labs are in the worse position. We have highlighted that the expected NPV and the number of generics in the portfolio of a pharmaceutical lab are important variables, but that it is also important to consider the degree of diversification. Labs with a higher potential for diversification across markets have an advantage over smaller labs. We have described a fuzzy decision support system based on the Mamdani model in order to determine the incentives for a laboratory to remain in the market both when it is stable and when it is growing.

In this article, I consider the effects of networking on the emergence of intelligence in individuals and societies. The following hypothesis promotes and sustains this investigation: The General Collective Problem Solving Capacity Hypothesis. Society possesses a general, collective problem solving capacity. The General Collective Problem Solving Capacity Hypothesis implies that the same general problem solving capacity that society uses, for example, to develop language, is used to solve problems in mathematics, science, business, musical composition and performance, sports contests, social interactions, politics and daily life. "All life is problem solving" [47]; all problem solving is a strictly analogous process. Let's adopt some notational conventions that will allow us to make the observations in the discussion that follows more precise. The formulas used in the definitions are sometimes modified by a subscript relevant to the context in which they are used.

We investigate a class of first-order temporal-epistemic logics for reasoning about multi-agent systems. We encode typical properties of systems including perfect recall, synchronicity, no learning, and having a unique initial state in terms of variants of quantified interpreted systems, a first-order extension of interpreted systems. We identify several monodic fragments of first-order temporal-epistemic logic and show their completeness with respect to their corresponding classes of quantified interpreted systems.

Latent feature models are widely used to decompose data into a small number of components. Bayesian nonparametric variants of these models, which use the Indian buffet process (IBP) as a prior over latent features, allow the number of features to be determined from the data. We present a generalization of the IBP, the distance dependent Indian buffet process (dd-IBP), for modeling non-exchangeable data. It relies on distances defined between data points, biasing nearby data to share more features. The choice of distance measure allows for many kinds of dependencies, including temporal and spatial. Further, the original IBP is a special case of the dd-IBP. In this paper, we develop the dd-IBP and theoretically characterize its feature-sharing properties. We derive a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler for a linear Gaussian model with a dd-IBP prior and study its performance on several non-exchangeable data sets.

We offer a novel view of AdaBoost in a statistical setting. We propose a Bayesian model for binary classification in which label noise is modeled hierarchically. Using variational inference to optimize a dynamic evidence lower bound, we derive a new boosting-like algorithm called VIBoost. We show its close connections to AdaBoost and give experimental results from four datasets.