Undirected graphical models, or Markov networks, are a popular class of statistical models, used in a wide variety of applications. Popular instances of this class include Gaussian graphical models and Ising models. In many settings, however, it might not be clear which subclass of graphical models to use, particularly for non-Gaussian and non-categorical data. In this paper, we consider a general sub-class of graphical models where the node-wise conditional distributions arise from exponential families. This allows us to derive multivariate graphical model distributions from univariate exponential family distributions, such as the Poisson, negative binomial, and exponential distributions. Our key contributions include a class of M-estimators to fit these graphical model distributions; and rigorous statistical analysis showing that these M-estimators recover the true graphical model structure exactly, with high probability. We provide examples of genomic and proteomic networks learned via instances of our class of graphical models derived from Poisson and exponential distributions.

In this paper, we consider the distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, where a global arm set can be accessed by multiple players independently. The players are allowed to exchange their history of observations with each other at specific points in time. We study the relationship between regret and communication. When the time horizon is known, we propose the Over-Exploration strategy, which only requires one-round communication and whose regret does not scale with the number of players. When the time horizon is unknown, we measure the frequency of communication through a new notion called the density of the communication set, and give an exact characterization of the interplay between regret and communication. Specifically, a lower bound is established and stable strategies that match the lower bound are developed. The results and analyses in this paper are specific but can be translated into more general settings.

We propose a quantization based approach for fast approximate Maximum Inner Product Search (MIPS). Each database vector is quantized in multiple subspaces via a set of codebooks, learned directly by minimizing the inner product quantization error. Then, the inner product of a query to a database vector is approximated as the sum of inner products with the subspace quantizers. Different from recently proposed LSH approaches to MIPS, the database vectors and queries do not need to be augmented in a higher dimensional feature space. We also provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed approach, consisting of the concentration results under mild assumptions. Furthermore, if a small sample of example queries is given at the training time, we propose a modified codebook learning procedure which further improves the accuracy. Experimental results on a variety of datasets including those arising from deep neural networks show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art.

This article presents modal versions of resource-conscious logics. We concentrate on extensions of variants of Linear Logic with one minimal non-normal modality. In earlier work, where we investigated agency in multi-agent systems, we have shown that the results scale up to logics with multiple non-minimal modalities. Here, we start with the language of propositional intuitionistic Linear Logic without the additive disjunction, to which we add a modality. We provide an interpretation of this language on a class of Kripke resource models extended with a neighbourhood function: modal Kripke resource models. We propose a Hilbert-style axiomatization and a Gentzen-style sequent calculus. We show that the proof theories are sound and complete with respect to the class of modal Kripke resource models. We show that the sequent calculus admits cut elimination and that proof-search is in PSPACE. We then show how to extend the results when non-commutative connectives are added to the language. Finally, we put the logical framework to use by instantiating it as logics of agency. In particular, we propose a logic to reason about the resource-sensitive use of artefacts and illustrate it with a variety of examples.

While stochastic variational inference is relatively well known for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models, related methods also offer ways to circumnavigate the approximation of analytically intractable expectations. The key challenge in either setting is controlling the variance of gradient estimates: recent work has shown that for continuous latent variables, particularly multivariate Gaussians, this can be achieved by using the gradient of the log posterior. In this paper we apply the same idea to gamma distributed latent variables given gamma variational distributions, enabling straightforward "black box" variational inference in models where sparsity and non-negativity are appropriate. We demonstrate the method on a recently proposed gamma process model for network data, as well as a novel sparse factor analysis. We outperform generic sampling algorithms and the approach of using Gaussian variational distributions on transformed variables.

Next generation telecom services will execute on the telecom cloud, which combine the flexibility of today's computing clouds with the service quality of telecom systems. Real-time service assurance will become an integral part in transforming the general and flexible cloud into a robust and highly available cloud that can ensure low latency and agreed service quality to its customers. A service assurance system for telecom services must be able to detect and preferably also predict problems that may violate the agreed service quality. This is a complex task already in legacy systems and will become even more challenging when executing the services in the cloud. Further, the service assurance system must be able to remedy, in real time, these problems once detected. One promising approach to service assurance is based on machine learning, where the service quality and behavior is learned from observations of the system. The ambition is to do automated real-time predictions of the service quality in order to execute mitigation actions in a proactive manner. Machine learning has been used in the past to build prediction models for service quality assurance.

Poyiadjis et al. (2011) show how particle methods can be used to estimate both the score and the observed information matrix for state space models. These methods either suffer from a computational cost that is quadratic in the number of particles, or produce estimates whose variance increases quadratically with the amount of data. This paper introduces an alternative approach for estimating these terms at a computational cost that is linear in the number of particles. The method is derived using a combination of kernel density estimation, to avoid the particle degeneracy that causes the quadratically increasing variance, and Rao-Blackwellisation. Crucially, we show the method is robust to the choice of bandwidth within the kernel density estimation, as it has good asymptotic properties regardless of this choice. Our estimates of the score and observed information matrix can be used within both online and batch procedures for estimating parameters for state space models. Empirical results show improved parameter estimates compared to existing methods at a significantly reduced computational cost. Supplementary materials including code are available.

A l1-norm penalized orthogonal forward regression (l1-POFR) algorithm is proposed based on the concept of leaveone- out mean square error (LOOMSE). Firstly, a new l1-norm penalized cost function is defined in the constructed orthogonal space, and each orthogonal basis is associated with an individually tunable regularization parameter. Secondly, due to orthogonal computation, the LOOMSE can be analytically computed without actually splitting the data set, and moreover a closed form of the optimal regularization parameter in terms of minimal LOOMSE is derived. Thirdly, a lower bound for regularization parameters is proposed, which can be used for robust LOOMSE estimation by adaptively detecting and removing regressors to an inactive set so that the computational cost of the algorithm is significantly reduced. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new l1-POFR approach.

Propagating input uncertainty through non-linear Gaussian process (GP) mappings is intractable. This hinders the task of training GPs using uncertain and partially observed inputs. In this paper we refer to this task as "semi-described learning". We then introduce a GP framework that solves both, the semi-described and the semi-supervised learning problems (where missing values occur in the outputs). Auto-regressive state space simulation is also recognised as a special case of semi-described learning. To achieve our goal we develop variational methods for handling semi-described inputs in GPs, and couple them with algorithms that allow for imputing the missing values while treating the uncertainty in a principled, Bayesian manner. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world data study the problems of iterative forecasting and regression/classification with missing values. The results suggest that the principled propagation of uncertainty stemming from our framework can significantly improve performance in these tasks.

This paper presents a pre-processing and a distance which improve the performance of machine learning algorithms working on independent and identically distributed stochastic processes. We introduce a novel non-parametric approach to represent random variables which splits apart dependency and distribution without losing any information. We also propound an associated metric leveraging this representation and its statistical estimate. Besides experiments on synthetic datasets, the benefits of our contribution is illustrated through the example of clustering financial time series, for instance prices from the credit default swaps market. Results are available on the website www.datagrapple.com and an IPython Notebook tutorial is available at www.datagrapple.com/Tech for reproducible research.