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Efficient reconstruction of transmission probabilities in a spreading process from partial observations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An important problem of reconstruction of diffusion network and transmission probabilities from the data has attracted a considerable attention in the past several years. A number of recent papers introduced efficient algorithms for the estimation of spreading parameters, based on the maximization of the likelihood of observed cascades, assuming that the full information for all the nodes in the network is available. In this work, we focus on a more realistic and restricted scenario, in which only a partial information on the cascades is available: either the set of activation times for a limited number of nodes, or the states of nodes for a subset of observation times. To tackle this problem, we first introduce a framework based on the maximization of the likelihood of the incomplete diffusion trace. However, we argue that the computation of this incomplete likelihood is a computationally hard problem, and show that a fast and robust reconstruction of transmission probabilities in sparse networks can be achieved with a new algorithm based on recently introduced dynamic message-passing equations for the spreading processes. The suggested approach can be easily generalized to a large class of discrete and continuous dynamic models, as well as to the cases of dynamically-changing networks and noisy information.


Fractionally-Supervised Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Traditionally, there are three species of classification: unsupervised, supervised, and semi-supervised. Supervised and semi-supervised classification differ by whether or not weight is given to unlabelled observations in the classification procedure. In unsupervised classification, or clustering, all observations are unlabeled and hence full weight is given to unlabelled observations. When some observations are unlabelled, it can be very difficult to \textit{a~priori} choose the optimal level of supervision, and the consequences of a sub-optimal choice can be non-trivial. A flexible fractionally-supervised approach to classification is introduced, where any level of supervision --- ranging from unsupervised to supervised --- can be attained. Our approach uses a weighted likelihood, wherein weights control the relative role that labelled and unlabelled data have in building a classifier. A comparison between our approach and the traditional species is presented using simulated and real data. Gaussian mixture models are used as a vehicle to illustrate our fractionally-supervised classification approach; however, it is broadly applicable and variations on the postulated model can be easily made.


Characterization of graphs for protein structure modeling and recognition of solubility

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Each E.Coli protein is initially represented according to its known folded 3D shape. This step consists in representing the available E.Coli proteins in terms of graphs. We first analyze those graphs by considering pure topological characterizations, i.e., by analyzing the mass fractal dimension and the distribution underlying both shortest paths and vertex degrees. Results confirm the general architectural principles of proteins. Successively, we focus on the statistical properties of a representation of such graphs in terms of vectors composed of several numerical features, which we extracted from their structural representation. We found that protein size is the main discriminator for the solubility, while however there are other factors that help explaining the solubility degree. We finally analyze such data through a novel one-class classifier, with the aim of discriminating among very and poorly soluble proteins. Results are encouraging and consolidate the potential of pattern recognition techniques when employed to describe complex biological systems.


Density Estimation via Discrepancy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Since these data are typically sampled from multi-modal distributions, a natural choice would be using nonparametric density estimation methods. Classic empirical distribution (ED) and kernel density estimation (KDE) play an important role in nonparametric density estimation. Besides their long noticed drawbacks (e.g., ED is noncontinuous; KDE is sensitive to the choice of bandwidth and scales poorly in high dimensions), they are not good summarization tools in dealing with data with high dimension and large size, e.g., evaluating them involves each data point and their functional forms provide little direct information of the "landscape" of the distribution. In this paper, we consider domain partition based approach for density estimation. The use of domain partition dates back to histogram, which is still an ubiquitous tool in data analysis today; however, its non-scalability in high dimensions limits its applications. Motivated by the usefulness of histogram and the attempts to adapt it for multivariate cases, we propose a novel nonparametric density estimation method.


Bandit Label Inference for Weakly Supervised Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The scarcity of data annotated at the desired level of granularity is a recurring issue in many applications. Significant amounts of effort have been devoted to developing weakly supervised methods tailored to each individual setting, which are often carefully designed to take advantage of the particular properties of weak supervision regimes, form of available data and prior knowledge of the task at hand. Unfortunately, it is difficult to adapt these methods to new tasks and/or forms of data, which often require different weak supervision regimes or models. We present a general-purpose method that can solve any weakly supervised learning problem irrespective of the weak supervision regime or the model. The proposed method turns any off-the-shelf strongly supervised classifier into a weakly supervised classifier and allows the user to specify any arbitrary weakly supervision regime via a loss function. We apply the method to several different weak supervision regimes and demonstrate competitive results compared to methods specifically engineered for those settings.


Modifying iterated Laplace approximations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, several modifications are introduced to the functional approximation method iterLap to reduce the approximation error, including stopping rule adjustment, proposal of new residual function, starting point selection for numerical optimisation, scaling of Hessian matrix. Illustrative examples are also provided to show the trade-off between running time and accuracy of the original and modified methods.


Stochastic gradient descent methods for estimation with large data sets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop methods for parameter estimation in settings with large-scale data sets, where traditional methods are no longer tenable. Our methods rely on stochastic approximations, which are computationally efficient as they maintain one iterate as a parameter estimate, and successively update that iterate based on a single data point. When the update is based on a noisy gradient, the stochastic approximation is known as standard stochastic gradient descent, which has been fundamental in modern applications with large data sets. Additionally, our methods are numerically stable because they employ implicit updates of the iterates. Intuitively, an implicit update is a shrinked version of a standard one, where the shrinkage factor depends on the observed Fisher information at the corresponding data point. This shrinkage prevents numerical divergence of the iterates, which can be caused either by excess noise or outliers. Our sgd package in R offers the most extensive and robust implementation of stochastic gradient descent methods. We demonstrate that sgd dominates alternative software in runtime for several estimation problems with massive data sets. Our applications include the wide class of generalized linear models as well as M-estimation for robust regression.


Probabilistic Group Testing under Sum Observations: A Parallelizable 2-Approximation for Entropy Loss

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of group testing with sum observations and noiseless answers, in which we aim to locate multiple objects by querying the number of objects in each of a sequence of chosen sets. We study a probabilistic setting with entropy loss, in which we assume a joint Bayesian prior density on the locations of the objects and seek to choose the sets queried to minimize the expected entropy of the Bayesian posterior distribution after a fixed number of questions. We present a new non-adaptive policy, called the dyadic policy, show it is optimal among non-adaptive policies, and is within a factor of two of optimal among adaptive policies. This policy is quick to compute, its nonadaptive nature makes it easy to parallelize, and our bounds show it performs well even when compared with adaptive policies. We also study an adaptive greedy policy, which maximizes the one-step expected reduction in entropy, and show that it performs at least as well as the dyadic policy, offering greater query efficiency but reduced parallelism. Numerical experiments demonstrate that both procedures outperform a divide-and-conquer benchmark policy from the literature, called sequential bifurcation, and show how these procedures may be applied in a stylized computer vision problem.


Bayesian Conditional Density Filtering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a Conditional Density Filtering (C-DF) algorithm for efficient online Bayesian inference. C-DF adapts MCMC sampling to the online setting, sampling from approximations to conditional posterior distributions obtained by propagating surrogate conditional sufficient statistics (a function of data and parameter estimates) as new data arrive. These quantities eliminate the need to store or process the entire dataset simultaneously and offer a number of desirable features. Often, these include a reduction in memory requirements and runtime and improved mixing, along with state-of-the-art parameter inference and prediction. These improvements are demonstrated through several illustrative examples including an application to high dimensional compressed regression. Finally, we show that C-DF samples converge to the target posterior distribution asymptotically as sampling proceeds and more data arrives.


Learning quantitative sequence-function relationships from massively parallel experiments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A fundamental aspect of biological information processing is the ubiquity of sequence-function relationships -- functions that map the sequence of DNA, RNA, or protein to a biochemically relevant activity. Most sequence-function relationships in biology are quantitative, but only recently have experimental techniques for effectively measuring these relationships been developed. The advent of such "massively parallel" experiments presents an exciting opportunity for the concepts and methods of statistical physics to inform the study of biological systems. After reviewing these recent experimental advances, we focus on the problem of how to infer parametric models of sequence-function relationships from the data produced by these experiments. Specifically, we retrace and extend recent theoretical work showing that inference based on mutual information, not the standard likelihood-based approach, is often necessary for accurately learning the parameters of these models. Closely connected with this result is the emergence of "diffeomorphic modes" -- directions in parameter space that are far less constrained by data than likelihood-based inference would suggest. Analogous to Goldstone modes in physics, diffeomorphic modes arise from an arbitrarily broken symmetry of the inference problem. An analytically tractable model of a massively parallel experiment is then described, providing an explicit demonstration of these fundamental aspects of statistical inference. This paper concludes with an outlook on the theoretical and computational challenges currently facing studies of quantitative sequence-function relationships.