In process mining, precision measures are used to quantify how much a process model overapproximates the behavior seen in an event log. Although several measures have been proposed throughout the years, no research has been done to validate whether these measures achieve the intended aim of quantifying over-approximation in a consistent way for all models and logs. This paper fills this gap by postulating a number of axioms for quantifying precision consistently for any log and any model. Further, we show through counter-examples that none of the existing measures consistently quantifies precision.

The domain of text-based adventure games has been recently established as a new challenge of creating the agent that is both able to understand natural language, and acts intelligently in text-described environments. In this paper, we present our approach to tackle the problem. Our agent, named Golovin, takes advantage of the limited game domain. We use genre-related corpora (including fantasy books and decompiled games) to create language models suitable to this domain. Moreover, we embed mechanisms that allow us to specify, and separately handle, important tasks as fighting opponents, managing inventory, and navigating on the game map. We validated usefulness of these mechanisms, measuring agent's performance on the set of 50 interactive fiction games. Finally, we show that our agent plays on a level comparable to the winner of the last year Text-Based Adventure AI Competition.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision medicine. We give a new theoretical analysis and family of algorithms for predicting individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data, under the assumption known as strong ignorability. The algorithms learn a "balanced" representation such that the induced treated and control distributions look similar. We give a novel, simple and intuitive generalization-error bound showing that the expected ITE estimation error of a representation is bounded by a sum of the standard generalization-error of that representation and the distance between the treated and control distributions induced by the representation. We use Integral Probability Metrics to measure distances between distributions, deriving explicit bounds for the Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances. Experiments on real and simulated data show the new algorithms match or outperform the state-of-the-art.

We present a machine learning-based approach to lossy image compression which outperforms all existing codecs, while running in real-time. Our algorithm typically produces files 2.5 times smaller than JPEG and JPEG 2000, 2 times smaller than WebP, and 1.7 times smaller than BPG on datasets of generic images across all quality levels. At the same time, our codec is designed to be lightweight and deployable: for example, it can encode or decode the Kodak dataset in around 10ms per image on GPU. Our architecture is an autoencoder featuring pyramidal analysis, an adaptive coding module, and regularization of the expected codelength. We also supplement our approach with adversarial training specialized towards use in a compression setting: this enables us to produce visually pleasing reconstructions for very low bitrates.

We describe a new method called t-ETE for finding a low-dimensional embedding of a set of objects in Euclidean space. We formulate the embedding problem as a joint ranking problem over a set of triplets, where each triplet captures the relative similarities between three objects in the set. By exploiting recent advances in robust ranking, t-ETE produces high-quality embeddings even in the presence of a significant amount of noise and better preserves local scale than known methods, such as t-STE and t-SNE. In particular, our method produces significantly better results than t-SNE on signature datasets while also being faster to compute.

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methods

Machine learning has emerged as an invaluable tool in many research areas. In the present work, we harness this power to predict highly accurate molecular infrared spectra with unprecedented computational efficiency. To account for vibrational anharmonic and dynamical effects -- typically neglected by conventional quantum chemistry approaches -- we base our machine learning strategy on ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. While these simulations are usually extremely time consuming even for small molecules, we overcome these limitations by leveraging the power of a variety of machine learning techniques, not only accelerating simulations by several orders of magnitude, but also greatly extending the size of systems that can be treated. To this end, we develop a molecular dipole moment model based on environment dependent neural network charges and combine it with the neural network potentials of Behler and Parrinello. Contrary to the prevalent big data philosophy, we are able to obtain very accurate machine learning models for the prediction of infrared spectra based on only a few hundreds of electronic structure reference points. This is made possible through the introduction of a fully automated sampling scheme and the use of molecular forces during neural network potential training. We demonstrate the power of our machine learning approach by applying it to model the infrared spectra of a methanol molecule, n-alkanes containing up to 200 atoms and the protonated alanine tripeptide, which at the same time represents the first application of machine learning techniques to simulate the dynamics of a peptide. In all these case studies we find excellent agreement between the infrared spectra predicted via machine learning models and the respective theoretical and experimental spectra.

Building on a survey of previous theories of serendipity and creativity, we advance a sequential model of serendipitous occurrences. We distinguish between serendipity as a service and serendipity in the system itself, clarify the role of invention and discovery, and provide a measure for the serendipity potential of a system. While a system can arguably not be guaranteed to be serendipitous, it can have a high potential for serendipity. Practitioners can use these theoretical tools to evaluate a computational system's potential for unexpected behaviour that may have a beneficial outcome. In addition to a qualitative features of serendipity potential, the model also includes quantitative ratings that can guide development work. We show how the model is used in three case studies of existing and hypothetical systems, in the context of evolutionary computing, automated programming, and (next-generation) recommender systems. From this analysis, we extract recommendations for practitioners working with computational serendipity, and outline future directions for research.

A fundamental goal in network neuroscience is to understand how activity in one region drives activity elsewhere, a process referred to as effective connectivity. Here we propose to model this causal interaction using integro-differential equations and causal kernels that allow for a rich analysis of effective connectivity. The approach combines the tractability and flexibility of autoregressive modeling with the biophysical interpretability of dynamic causal modeling. The causal kernels are learned nonparametrically using Gaussian process regression, yielding an efficient framework for causal inference. We construct a novel class of causal covariance functions that enforce the desired properties of the causal kernels, an approach which we call GP CaKe. By construction, the model and its hyperparameters have biophysical meaning and are therefore easily interpretable. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP CaKe on a number of simulations and give an example of a realistic application on magnetoencephalography (MEG) data.