International Journal of Forecasting, 2024.], a generalised exponential smoothing model was proposed that is able to capture strong trends and volatility in time series. This method achieved state-of-the-art performance in many forecasting tasks, but its fitting proce dure, which is based on the NUTS sampler, is very computationally expensive. In this work, w e propose several modifications to the original model, as well as a bespoke Gibbs sampler for p osterior exploration; these changes improve sampling time by an order of magnitude, thus rendering the model much more practically relevant. The new model, and sampler, are evalu ated on the M3 dataset and are shown to be competitive, or superior, in terms of accuracy to the original method, while being substantially faster to run.

The goal of precision medicine is to provide individualized treatment at each stage of chronic diseases, a concept formalized by Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTR). These regimes adapt treatment strategies based on decision rules learned from clinical data to enhance therapeutic effectiveness. Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms allow to determine these decision rules conditioned by individual patient data and their medical history. The integration of medical expertise into these models makes possible to increase confidence in treatment recommendations and facilitate the adoption of this approach by healthcare professionals and patients. In this work, we examine the mathematical foundations of RL, contextualize its application in the field of DTR, and present an overview of methods to improve its effectiveness by integrating medical expertise.

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However, the latter comes with specific challenges, such as developing accurate predictors from noisy, heterogeneous and limited annotated data. This paper reviews how AI is being used to analyze extreme events (like floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves), highlighting the importance of creating accurate, transparent, and reliable AI models. We discuss the hurdles of dealing with limited data, integrating information in real-time, deploying models, and making them understandable, all crucial for gaining the trust of stakeholders and meeting regulatory needs. We provide an overview of how AI can help identify and explain extreme events more effectively, improving disaster response and communication. We emphasize the need for collaboration across different fields to create AI solutions that are practical, understandable, and trustworthy for analyzing and predicting extreme events. Such collaborative efforts aim to enhance disaster readiness and disaster risk reduction.

In the dawn of the age of Large Language Models (LLMs), already much has been said about how researchers are making use of LLMs to author articles. For example, according to an article in Scientific American [1], "One percent of scientific articles published in 2023 showed signs of generative AI's potential involvement, according to a recent analysis." However, far less has been said about how reviewers are now abusing their role, sometimes with the editor's collusion. Here is our report of a case in point. We submitted a manuscript on domain-independent deception detection to a highly respected journal. As a consequence of a reviewer's use of an LLM, we both received a most peculiar review and also lost the promised confidentiality regarding our submission.

Given the extensive and growing capabilities offered by deep learning (DL), more researchers are turning to DL to address complex challenges in next-generation (xG) communications. However, despite its progress, DL also reveals several limitations that are becoming increasingly evident. One significant issue is its lack of interpretability, which is especially critical for safety-sensitive applications. Another significant consideration is that DL may not comply with the constraints set by physics laws or given security standards, which are essential for reliable DL. Additionally, DL models often struggle outside their training data distributions, which is known as poor generalization. Moreover, there is a scarcity of theoretical guidance on designing DL algorithms. These challenges have prompted the emergence of a burgeoning field known as science-informed DL (ScIDL). ScIDL aims to integrate existing scientific knowledge with DL techniques to develop more powerful algorithms. The core objective of this article is to provide a brief tutorial on ScIDL that illustrates its building blocks and distinguishes it from conventional DL. Furthermore, we discuss both recent applications of ScIDL and potential future research directions in the field of wireless communications.

The adaptability of human learning to absorb new knowledge without forgetting previously acquired information remains a significant challenge for machine learning models. Continual learning (CL) endeavors to narrow this chasm by guiding models to sequentially learn new tasks while maintaining high performance on earlier ones. An outstanding solution to CL is the prompt-based approach [45, 57, 58, 55, 40], which leverages the power of pre-trained models and employs a set of trainable prompts for flexible model instruction, accommodating data from various tasks. Thanks to its ability to remember without storing a memory buffer, prompt-based CL methods are particularly suitable for scenarios prioritizing data privacy, such as those involving multiple data suppliers. Nonetheless, such promising results can inadvertently become vulnerabilities, exposing CL to security threats. Indeed, while CL methods effectively address catastrophic forgetting by preserving and incorporating previously acquired knowledge, they may also unwittingly retain knowledge compromised by adversarial actions. These threats become even more formidable in the multi-data supplier scenario of prompt-based approaches, where the supplied data might contain hidden harmful information. One potential threat is backdoor attack, which manipulates neural networks to exhibit the attacker's desired behavior when the input contains a specific backdoor trigger.

The multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) genre has gained significant popularity and economic success, attracting considerable research interest within the Human-Computer Interaction community. Enhancing the gaming experience requires a deep understanding of player behavior, and a crucial aspect of MOBA games is matchmaking, which aims to assemble teams of comparable skill levels. However, existing matchmaking systems often neglect important factors such as players' position preferences and team assignment, resulting in imbalanced matches and reduced player satisfaction. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel framework called CUPID, which introduces a novel process called ``re-matchmaking'' to optimize team and position assignments to improve both fairness and player satisfaction. CUPID incorporates a pre-filtering step to ensure a minimum level of matchmaking quality, followed by a pre-match win-rate prediction model that evaluates the fairness of potential assignments. By simultaneously considering players' position satisfaction and game fairness, CUPID aims to provide an enhanced matchmaking experience. Extensive experiments were conducted on two large-scale, real-world MOBA datasets to validate the effectiveness of CUPID. The results surpass all existing state-of-the-art baselines, with an average relative improvement of 7.18% in terms of win prediction accuracy. Furthermore, CUPID has been successfully deployed in a popular online mobile MOBA game. The deployment resulted in significant improvements in match fairness and player satisfaction, as evidenced by critical Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) metrics covering usability, accessibility, and engagement, observed through A/B testing. To the best of our knowledge, CUPID is the first re-matchmaking system designed specifically for large-scale MOBA games.

Optimizing edge caching is crucial for the advancement of next-generation (nextG) wireless networks, ensuring high-speed and low-latency services for mobile users. Existing data-driven optimization approaches often lack awareness of the distribution of random data variables and focus solely on optimizing cache hit rates, neglecting potential reliability concerns, such as base station overload and unbalanced cache issues. This oversight can result in system crashes and degraded user experience. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel digital twin-assisted optimization framework, called D-REC, which integrates reinforcement learning (RL) with diverse intervention modules to ensure reliable caching in nextG wireless networks. We first develop a joint vertical and horizontal twinning approach to efficiently create network digital twins, which are then employed by D-REC as RL optimizers and safeguards, providing ample datasets for training and predictive evaluation of our cache replacement policy. By incorporating reliability modules into a constrained Markov decision process, D-REC can adaptively adjust actions, rewards, and states to comply with advantageous constraints, minimizing the risk of network failures. Theoretical analysis demonstrates comparable convergence rates between D-REC and vanilla data-driven methods without compromising caching performance. Extensive experiments validate that D-REC outperforms conventional approaches in cache hit rate and load balancing while effectively enforcing predetermined reliability intervention modules.

The increasing sophistication of cyber threats necessitates innovative approaches to cybersecurity. In this paper, we explore the potential of psychological profiling techniques, particularly focusing on the utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) and psycholinguistic features. We investigate the intersection of psychology and cybersecurity, discussing how LLMs can be employed to analyze textual data for identifying psychological traits of threat actors. We explore the incorporation of psycholinguistic features, such as linguistic patterns and emotional cues, into cybersecurity frameworks. Our research underscores the importance of integrating psychological perspectives into cybersecurity practices to bolster defense mechanisms against evolving threats.

The recent surge in generative AI technologies, such as large language models and diffusion models, has boosted the development of AI applications in various domains, including science, finance, and education. Concurrently, adaptive learning, a concept that has gained substantial interest in the educational sphere, has proven its efficacy in enhancing students' learning efficiency. In this position paper, we aim to shed light on the intersectional studies of these two methods, which combine generative AI with adaptive learning concepts. By presenting discussions about the benefits, challenges, and potentials in this field, we argue that this union will contribute significantly to the development of the next-stage learning format in education.