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Likelihood-free MCMC with Approximate Likelihood Ratios

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel approach for posterior sampling with intractable likelihoods. This is an increasingly important problem in scientific applications where models are implemented as sophisticated computer simulations. As a result, tractable densities are not available, which forces practitioners to rely on approximations during inference. We address the intractability of densities by training a parameterized classifier whose output is used to approximate likelihood ratios between arbitrary model parameters. In turn, we are able to draw posterior samples by plugging this approximator into common Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers such as Metropolis-Hastings and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the proposed technique by fitting the generating parameters of implicit models, ranging from a linear probabilistic model to settings in high energy physics with high-dimensional observations. Finally, we discuss several diagnostics to assess the quality of the posterior.


The Promise of Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

#artificialintelligence

This top-down planning approach decides what a good subgoal is before planning to achieve it." "For complex, high-dimensional Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), it may be necessary to represent the policy with function approximation. A problem is mis- specified whenever, the representation cannot express any policy with acceptable performance.


GNN Explainer: A Tool for Post-hoc Explanation of Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a powerful tool for machine learning on graphs. GNNs combine node feature information with the graph structure by using neural networks to pass messages through edges in the graph. However, incorporating both graph structure and feature information leads to complex non-linear models and explaining predictions made by GNNs remains to be a challenging task. Here we propose GnnExplainer, a general model-agnostic approach for providing interpretable explanations for predictions of any GNN-based model on any graph-based machine learning task (node and graph classification, link prediction). In order to explain a given node's predicted label, GnnExplainer provides a local interpretation by highlighting relevant features as well as an important subgraph structure by identifying the edges that are most relevant to the prediction. Additionally, the model provides single-instance explanations when given a single prediction as well as multi-instance explanations that aim to explain predictions for an entire class of instances/nodes. We formalize GnnExplainer as an optimization task that maximizes the mutual information between the prediction of the full model and the prediction of simplified explainer model. We experiment on synthetic as well as real-world data. On synthetic data we demonstrate that our approach is able to highlight relevant topological structures from noisy graphs. We also demonstrate GnnExplainer to provide a better understanding of pre-trained models on real-world tasks. GnnExplainer provides a variety of benefits, from the identification of semantically relevant structures to explain predictions to providing guidance when debugging faulty graph neural network models.


Why Growing Companies View Cutting-Edge Technologies As Necessity And Enabler

#artificialintelligence

Within the next two years, artificial intelligence (AI) will touch every business process, every employee, and every customer in some way. Without a doubt, this new reality will make our world easier and faster through process automation. But more transformational is the opportunity to elevate our ability to make decisions, deliver outcomes, and complete tasks in a more human way. For growing companies, this is becoming the moment when they push past the boundaries of traditional decision-making capabilities to intrinsic intelligence that is trusted, real-time, accurate, and continuously learning. In fact, according to an IDC study, over half of best-run midsize businesses view AI, machine learning, and digital assistants as critical enablers and necessities for staying competitive, compared to approximately 13% of digital laggards. Source: "Becoming a Best-Run Midsize Company: How Growing Companies Benefit from Intelligent Capabilities," IDC InfoBrief, sponsored by SAP, 2019.


Autonomy, Authenticity, Authorship and Intention in computer generated art

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper examines five key questions surrounding computer generated art. Driven by the recent public auction of a work of "AI Art" we selectively summarise many decades of research and commentary around topics of autonomy, authenticity, authorship and intention in computer generated art, and use this research to answer contemporary questions often asked about art made by computers that concern these topics. We additionally reflect on whether current techniques in deep learning and Generative Adversarial Networks significantly change the answers provided by many decades of prior research.


5G reality check from MWC: A long, expensive road ahead

#artificialintelligence

Amid all the bullish talk about 5G at MWC Barcelona 19, there was also some nervous hand wringing. Even as progress is being made, the tab for this next-generation connectivity remains daunting. The GSMA trade group that hosts the event formerly known as Mobile World Congress estimates that carriers will be spending $160 billion on an annual basis to roll out 5G networks around the world. And that doesn't include trillions more that are estimated to be needed to install related infrastructure for things like autonomous vehicles, smart cities, and interactive content like live streaming virtual reality. "Rolling out 5G is a communications revolution that will profoundly change every aspect of our lives," wrote Tony Wonfor, Managing Director of telecom financing firm Greensill, in a report on 5G costs.


Machine learning in policy evaluation: new tools for causal inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While machine learning (ML) methods have received a lot of attention in recent years, these methods are primarily for prediction. Empirical researchers conducting policy evaluations are, on the other hand, pre-occupied with causal problems, trying to answer counterfactual questions: what would have happened in the absence of a policy? Because these counterfactuals can never be directly observed (described as the "fundamental problem of causal inference") prediction tools from the ML literature cannot be readily used for causal inference. In the last decade, major innovations have taken place incorporating supervised ML tools into estimators for causal parameters such as the average treatment effect (ATE). This holds the promise of attenuating model misspecification issues, and increasing of transparency in model selection. One particularly mature strand of the literature include approaches that incorporate supervised ML approaches in the estimation of the ATE of a binary treatment, under the \textit{unconfoundedness} and positivity assumptions (also known as exchangeability and overlap assumptions). This article reviews popular supervised machine learning algorithms, including the Super Learner. Then, some specific uses of machine learning for treatment effect estimation are introduced and illustrated, namely (1) to create balance among treated and control groups, (2) to estimate so-called nuisance models (e.g. the propensity score, or conditional expectations of the outcome) in semi-parametric estimators that target causal parameters (e.g. targeted maximum likelihood estimation or the double ML estimator), and (3) the use of machine learning for variable selection in situations with a high number of covariates.


The principles of adaptation in organisms and machines I: machine learning, information theory, and thermodynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

How do organisms recognize their environment by acquiring knowledge about the world, and what actions do they take based on this knowledge? This article examines hypotheses about organisms' adaptation to the environment from machine learning, information-theoretic, and thermodynamic perspectives. We start with constructing a hierarchical model of the world as an internal model in the brain, and review standard machine learning methods to infer causes by approximately learning the model under the maximum likelihood principle. This in turn provides an overview of the free energy principle for an organism, a hypothesis to explain perception and action from the principle of least surprise. Treating this statistical learning as communication between the world and brain, learning is interpreted as a process to maximize information about the world. We investigate how the classical theories of perception such as the infomax principle relates to learning the hierarchical model. We then present an approach to the recognition and learning based on thermodynamics, showing that adaptation by causal learning results in the second law of thermodynamics whereas inference dynamics that fuses observation with prior knowledge forms a thermodynamic process. These provide a unified view on the adaptation of organisms to the environment.


Multi-Stage Self-Supervised Learning for Graph Convolutional Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph Convolutional Networks(GCNs) play a crucial role in graph learning tasks, however, learning graph embedding with few supervised signals is still a difficult problem. In this paper, we propose a novel training algorithm for Graph Convolutional Network, called Multi-Stage Self-Supervised(M3S) Training Algorithm, combined with self-supervised learning approach, focusing on improving the generalization performance of GCNs on graphs with few labeled nodes. Firstly, a Multi-Stage Training Framework is provided as the basis of M3S training method. Then we leverage DeepCluster technique, a popular form of self-supervised learning, and design corresponding aligning mechanism on the embedding space to refine the Multi-Stage Training Framework, resulting in M3S Training Algorithm. Finally, extensive experimental results verify the superior performance of our algorithm on graphs with few labeled nodes under different label rates compared with other state-of-the-art approaches.


The Ethics of AI Ethics -- An Evaluation of Guidelines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current advances in research, development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) systems have yielded a far-reaching discourse on AI ethics. In consequence, a number of ethics guidelines have been released in recent years. These guidelines comprise normative principles and recommendations aimed to harness the "disruptive" potentials of new AI technologies. Designed as a comprehensive evaluation, this paper analyzes and compares these guidelines highlighting overlaps but also omissions. As a result, I give a detailed overview of the field of AI ethics. Finally, I also examine to what extent the respective ethical principles and values are implemented in the practice of research, development and application of AI systems - and how the effectiveness in the demands of AI ethics can be improved.