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Fuzzy Win-Win: A Novel Approach to Quantify Win-Win Using Fuzzy Logic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The classic win-win has a key flaw in that it cannot offer the parties the right amounts of winning because each party believes they are winners. In reality, one party may win more than the other. This strategy is not limited to a single product or negotiation; it may be applied to a variety of situations in life. We present a novel way to measure the win-win situation in this paper. The proposed method employs Fuzzy logic to create a mathematical model that aids negotiators in quantifying their winning percentages. The model is put to the test on real-life negotiations scenarios such as the Iranian uranium enrichment negotiations, the Iraqi-Jordanian oil deal, and the iron ore negotiation (2005-2009). The presented model has shown to be a useful tool in practice and can be easily generalized to be utilized in other domains as well.


Geometric Path Enumeration for Equivalence Verification of Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As neural networks (NNs) are increasingly introduced into safety-critical domains, there is a growing need to formally verify NNs before deployment. In this work we focus on the formal verification problem of NN equivalence which aims to prove that two NNs (e.g. an original and a compressed version) show equivalent behavior. Two approaches have been proposed for this problem: Mixed integer linear programming and interval propagation. While the first approach lacks scalability, the latter is only suitable for structurally similar NNs with small weight changes. The contribution of our paper has four parts. First, we show a theoretical result by proving that the epsilon-equivalence problem is coNP-complete. Secondly, we extend Tran et al.'s single NN geometric path enumeration algorithm to a setting with multiple NNs. In a third step, we implement the extended algorithm for equivalence verification and evaluate optimizations necessary for its practical use. Finally, we perform a comparative evaluation showing use-cases where our approach outperforms the previous state of the art, both, for equivalence verification as well as for counter-example finding.


Artificial Intelligence and Design of Experiments for Assessing Security of Electricity Supply: A Review and Strategic Outlook

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Assessing the effects of the energy transition and liberalization of energy markets on resource adequacy is an increasingly important and demanding task. The rising complexity in energy systems requires adequate methods for energy system modeling leading to increased computational requirements. Furthermore, with complexity, uncertainty increases likewise calling for probabilistic assessments and scenario analyses. To adequately and efficiently address these various requirements, new methods from the field of data science are needed to accelerate current methods. With our systematic literature review, we want to close the gap between the three disciplines (1) assessment of security of electricity supply, (2) artificial intelligence, and (3) design of experiments. For this, we conduct a large-scale quantitative review on selected fields of application and methods and make a synthesis that relates the different disciplines to each other. Among other findings, we identify metamodeling of complex security of electricity supply models using AI methods and applications of AI-based methods for forecasts of storage dispatch and (non-)availabilities as promising fields of application that have not sufficiently been covered, yet. We end with deriving a new methodological pipeline for adequately and efficiently addressing the present and upcoming challenges in the assessment of security of electricity supply.


A Survey on Societal Event Forecasting with Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has traditionally been challenging due to the lack of knowledge regarding the true causes and underlying mechanisms of event occurrence. In recent years, research on event forecasting has made significant progress due to two main reasons: (1) the development of machine learning and deep learning algorithms and (2) the accessibility of public data such as social media, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other meta-data sources. The explosive growth of data and the remarkable advancement in software/hardware technologies have led to applications of deep learning techniques in societal event studies. This paper is dedicated to providing a systematic and comprehensive overview of deep learning technologies for societal event predictions. We focus on two domains of societal events: \textit{civil unrest} and \textit{crime}. We first introduce how event forecasting problems are formulated as a machine learning prediction task. Then, we summarize data resources, traditional methods, and recent development of deep learning models for these problems. Finally, we discuss the challenges in societal event forecasting and put forward some promising directions for future research.


ISEEQ: Information Seeking Question Generation using Dynamic Meta-Information Retrieval and Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conversational Information Seeking (CIS) is a relatively new research area within conversational AI that attempts to seek information from end-users in order to understand and satisfy users' needs. If realized, such a system has far-reaching benefits in the real world; for example, a CIS system can assist clinicians in pre-screening or triaging patients in healthcare. A key open sub-problem in CIS that remains unaddressed in the literature is generating Information Seeking Questions (ISQs) based on a short initial query from the end-user. To address this open problem, we propose Information SEEking Question generator (ISEEQ), a novel approach for generating ISQs from just a short user query, given a large text corpus relevant to the user query. Firstly, ISEEQ uses a knowledge graph to enrich the user query. Secondly, ISEEQ uses the knowledge-enriched query to retrieve relevant context passages to ask coherent ISQs adhering to a conceptual flow. Thirdly, ISEEQ introduces a new deep generative-adversarial reinforcement learning-based approach for generating ISQs. We show that ISEEQ can generate high-quality ISQs to promote the development of CIS agents. ISEEQ significantly outperforms comparable baselines on five ISQ evaluation metrics across four datasets having user queries from diverse domains. Further, we argue that ISEEQ is transferable across domains for generating ISQs, as it shows the acceptable performance when trained and tested on different pairs of domains. The qualitative human evaluation confirms ISEEQ-generated ISQs are comparable in quality to human-generated questions and outperform the best comparable baseline.


Technical Language Supervision for Intelligent Fault Diagnosis in Process Industry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the process industry, condition monitoring systems with automated fault diagnosis methods assisthuman experts and thereby improve maintenance efficiency, process sustainability, and workplace safety.Improving the automated fault diagnosis methods using data and machine learning-based models is a centralaspect of intelligent fault diagnosis (IFD). A major challenge in IFD is to develop realistic datasets withaccurate labels needed to train and validate models, and to transfer models trained with labeled lab datato heterogeneous process industry environments. However, fault descriptions and work-orders written bydomain experts are increasingly digitized in modern condition monitoring systems, for example in the contextof rotating equipment monitoring. Thus, domain-specific knowledge about fault characteristics and severitiesexists as technical language annotations in industrial datasets. Furthermore, recent advances in naturallanguage processing enable weakly supervised model optimization using natural language annotations, mostnotably in the form ofnatural language supervision(NLS). This creates a timely opportunity to developtechnical language supervision(TLS) solutions for IFD systems grounded in industrial data, for exampleas a complement to pre-training with lab data to address problems like overfitting and inaccurate out-of-sample generalisation. We surveyed the literature and identify a considerable improvement in the maturityof NLS over the last two years, facilitating applications beyond natural language; a rapid development ofweak supervision methods; and transfer learning as a current trend in IFD which can benefit from thesedevelopments. Finally, we describe a framework for integration of TLS in IFD which is inspired by recentNLS innovations.


Retrosynthetic Planning with Experience-Guided Monte Carlo Tree Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Retrosynthetic planning problem is to analyze a complex molecule and give a synthetic route using simple building blocks. The huge number of chemical reactions leads to a combinatorial explosion of possibilities, and even the experienced chemists could not select the most promising transformations. The current approaches rely on human-defined or machine-trained score functions which have limited chemical knowledge or use expensive estimation methods such as rollout to guide the search. In this paper, we propose {\tt MCTS}, a novel MCTS-based retrosynthetic planning approach, to deal with retrosynthetic planning problem. Instead of exploiting rollout, we build an Experience Guidance Network to learn knowledge from synthetic experiences during the search. Experiments on benchmark USPTO datasets show that, our {\tt MCTS} gains significant improvement over state-of-the-art approaches both in efficiency and effectiveness.


A Framework for Fairness: A Systematic Review of Existing Fair AI Solutions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In a world of daily emerging scientific inquisition and discovery, the prolific launch of machine learning across industries comes to little surprise for those familiar with the potential of ML. Neither so should the congruent expansion of ethics-focused research that emerged as a response to issues of bias and unfairness that stemmed from those very same applications. Fairness research, which focuses on techniques to combat algorithmic bias, is now more supported than ever before. A large portion of fairness research has gone to producing tools that machine learning practitioners can use to audit for bias while designing their algorithms. Nonetheless, there is a lack of application of these fairness solutions in practice. This systematic review provides an in-depth summary of the algorithmic bias issues that have been defined and the fairness solution space that has been proposed. Moreover, this review provides an in-depth breakdown of the caveats to the solution space that have arisen since their release and a taxonomy of needs that have been proposed by machine learning practitioners, fairness researchers, and institutional stakeholders. These needs have been organized and addressed to the parties most influential to their implementation, which includes fairness researchers, organizations that produce ML algorithms, and the machine learning practitioners themselves. These findings can be used in the future to bridge the gap between practitioners and fairness experts and inform the creation of usable fair ML toolkits.


Neural Attention Models in Deep Learning: Survey and Taxonomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Attention is a state of arousal capable of dealing with limited processing bottlenecks in human beings by focusing selectively on one piece of information while ignoring other perceptible information. For decades, concepts and functions of attention have been studied in philosophy, psychology, neuroscience, and computing. Currently, this property has been widely explored in deep neural networks. Many different neural attention models are now available and have been a very active research area over the past six years. From the theoretical standpoint of attention, this survey provides a critical analysis of major neural attention models. Here we propose a taxonomy that corroborates with theoretical aspects that predate Deep Learning. Our taxonomy provides an organizational structure that asks new questions and structures the understanding of existing attentional mechanisms. In particular, 17 criteria derived from psychology and neuroscience classic studies are formulated for qualitative comparison and critical analysis on the 51 main models found on a set of more than 650 papers analyzed. Also, we highlight several theoretical issues that have not yet been explored, including discussions about biological plausibility, highlight current research trends, and provide insights for the future.


A Review for Deep Reinforcement Learning in Atari:Benchmarks, Challenges, and Solutions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Arcade Learning Environment (ALE) is proposed as an evaluation platform for empirically assessing the generality of agents across dozens of Atari 2600 games. ALE offers various challenging problems and has drawn significant attention from the deep reinforcement learning (RL) community. From Deep Q-Networks (DQN) to Agent57, RL agents seem to achieve superhuman performance in ALE. However, is this the case? In this paper, to explore this problem, we first review the current evaluation metrics in the Atari benchmarks and then reveal that the current evaluation criteria of achieving superhuman performance are inappropriate, which underestimated the human performance relative to what is possible. To handle those problems and promote the development of RL research, we propose a novel Atari benchmark based on human world records (HWR), which puts forward higher requirements for RL agents on both final performance and learning efficiency. Furthermore, we summarize the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in Atari benchmarks and provide benchmark results over new evaluation metrics based on human world records. We concluded that at least four open challenges hinder RL agents from achieving superhuman performance from those new benchmark results. Finally, we also discuss some promising ways to handle those problems.