Overview
Marginal Effects for Non-Linear Prediction Functions
Scholbeck, Christian A., Casalicchio, Giuseppe, Molnar, Christoph, Bischl, Bernd, Heumann, Christian
Beta coefficients for linear regression models represent the ideal form of an interpretable feature effect. However, for non-linear models and especially generalized linear models, the estimated coefficients cannot be interpreted as a direct feature effect on the predicted outcome. Hence, marginal effects are typically used as approximations for feature effects, either in the shape of derivatives of the prediction function or forward differences in prediction due to a change in a feature value. While marginal effects are commonly used in many scientific fields, they have not yet been adopted as a model-agnostic interpretation method for machine learning models. This may stem from their inflexibility as a univariate feature effect and their inability to deal with the non-linearities found in black box models. We introduce a new class of marginal effects termed forward marginal effects. We argue to abandon derivatives in favor of better-interpretable forward differences. Furthermore, we generalize marginal effects based on forward differences to multivariate changes in feature values. To account for the non-linearity of prediction functions, we introduce a non-linearity measure for marginal effects. We argue against summarizing feature effects of a non-linear prediction function in a single metric such as the average marginal effect. Instead, we propose to partition the feature space to compute conditional average marginal effects on feature subspaces, which serve as conditional feature effect estimates.
AI in health and medicine - Nature Medicine
Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to broadly reshape medicine, potentially improving the experiences of both clinicians and patients. We discuss key findings from a 2-year weekly effort to track and share key developments in medical AI. We cover prospective studies and advances in medical image analysis, which have reduced the gap between research and deployment. We also address several promising avenues for novel medical AI research, including non-image data sources, unconventional problem formulations and humanโAI collaboration. Finally, we consider serious technical and ethical challenges in issues spanning from data scarcity to racial bias. As these challenges are addressed, AIโs potential may be realized, making healthcare more accurate, efficient and accessible for patients worldwide. AI has the potential to reshape medicine and make healthcare more accurate, efficient and accessible; this Review discusses recent progress, opportunities and challenges toward achieving this goal.
From Psychological Curiosity to Artificial Curiosity: Curiosity-Driven Learning in Artificial Intelligence Tasks
Sun, Chenyu, Qian, Hangwei, Miao, Chunyan
Psychological curiosity plays a significant role in human intelligence to enhance learning through exploration and information acquisition. In the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community, artificial curiosity provides a natural intrinsic motivation for efficient learning as inspired by human cognitive development; meanwhile, it can bridge the existing gap between AI research and practical application scenarios, such as overfitting, poor generalization, limited training samples, high computational cost, etc. As a result, curiosity-driven learning (CDL) has become increasingly popular, where agents are self-motivated to learn novel knowledge. In this paper, we first present a comprehensive review on the psychological study of curiosity and summarize a unified framework for quantifying curiosity as well as its arousal mechanism. Based on the psychological principle, we further survey the literature of existing CDL methods in the fields of Reinforcement Learning, Recommendation, and Classification, where both advantages and disadvantages as well as future work are discussed. As a result, this work provides fruitful insights for future CDL research and yield possible directions for further improvement.
Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning: Problems and Solutions
Liu, Minghuan, Zhu, Menghui, Zhang, Weinan
Goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL), related to a set of complex RL problems, trains an agent to achieve different goals under particular scenarios. Compared to the standard RL solutions that learn a policy solely depending on the states or observations, GCRL additionally requires the agent to make decisions according to different goals. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of the challenges and algorithms for GCRL. Firstly, we answer what the basic problems are studied in this field. Then, we explain how goals are represented and present how existing solutions are designed from different points of view. Finally, we make the conclusion and discuss potential future prospects that recent researches focus on.
From Anecdotal Evidence to Quantitative Evaluation Methods: A Systematic Review on Evaluating Explainable AI
Nauta, Meike, Trienes, Jan, Pathak, Shreyasi, Nguyen, Elisa, Peters, Michelle, Schmitt, Yasmin, Schlรถtterer, Jรถrg, van Keulen, Maurice, Seifert, Christin
The rising popularity of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to understand high-performing black boxes, also raised the question of how to evaluate explanations of machine learning (ML) models. While interpretability and explainability are often presented as a subjectively validated binary property, we consider it a multi-faceted concept. We identify 12 conceptual properties, such as Compactness and Correctness, that should be evaluated for comprehensively assessing the quality of an explanation. Our so-called Co-12 properties serve as categorization scheme for systematically reviewing the evaluation practice of more than 300 papers published in the last 7 years at major AI and ML conferences that introduce an XAI method. We find that 1 in 3 papers evaluate exclusively with anecdotal evidence, and 1 in 5 papers evaluate with users. We also contribute to the call for objective, quantifiable evaluation methods by presenting an extensive overview of quantitative XAI evaluation methods. This systematic collection of evaluation methods provides researchers and practitioners with concrete tools to thoroughly validate, benchmark and compare new and existing XAI methods. This also opens up opportunities to include quantitative metrics as optimization criteria during model training in order to optimize for accuracy and interpretability simultaneously.
A Systematic Analysis on the Impact of Contextual Information on Point-of-Interest Recommendation
Rahmani, Hossein A., Aliannejadi, Mohammad, Baratchi, Mitra, Crestani, Fabio
As the popularity of Location-based Social Networks (LBSNs) increases, designing accurate models for Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation receives more attention. POI recommendation is often performed by incorporating contextual information into previously designed recommendation algorithms. Some of the major contextual information that has been considered in POI recommendation are the location attributes (i.e., exact coordinates of a location, category, and check-in time), the user attributes (i.e., comments, reviews, tips, and check-in made to the locations), and other information, such as the distance of the POI from user's main activity location, and the social tie between users. The right selection of such factors can significantly impact the performance of the POI recommendation. However, previous research does not consider the impact of the combination of these different factors. In this paper, we propose different contextual models and analyze the fusion of different major contextual information in POI recommendation. The major contributions of this paper are: (i) providing an extensive survey of context-aware location recommendation (ii) quantifying and analyzing the impact of different contextual information (e.g., social, temporal, spatial, and categorical) in the POI recommendation on available baselines and two new linear and non-linear models, that can incorporate all the major contextual information into a single recommendation model, and (iii) evaluating the considered models using two well-known real-world datasets. Our results indicate that while modeling geographical and temporal influences can improve recommendation quality, fusing all other contextual information into a recommendation model is not always the best strategy.
Survey on Federated Learning Threats: concepts, taxonomy on attacks and defences, experimental study and challenges
Rodrรญguez-Barroso, Nuria, Lรณpez, Daniel Jimรฉnez, Luzรณn, M. Victoria, Herrera, Francisco, Martรญnez-Cรกmara, Eugenio
Federated learning is a machine learning paradigm that emerges as a solution to the privacy-preservation demands in artificial intelligence. As machine learning, federated learning is threatened by adversarial attacks against the integrity of the learning model and the privacy of data via a distributed approach to tackle local and global learning. This weak point is exacerbated by the inaccessibility of data in federated learning, which makes harder the protection against adversarial attacks and evidences the need to furtherance the research on defence methods to make federated learning a real solution for safeguarding data privacy. In this paper, we present an extensive review of the threats of federated learning, as well as as their corresponding countermeasures, attacks versus defences. This survey provides a taxonomy of adversarial attacks and a taxonomy of defence methods that depict a general picture of this vulnerability of federated learning and how to overcome it. Likewise, we expound guidelines for selecting the most adequate defence method according to the category of the adversarial attack. Besides, we carry out an extensive experimental study from which we draw further conclusions about the behaviour of attacks and defences and the guidelines for selecting the most adequate defence method according to the category of the adversarial attack. This study is finished leading to meditated learned lessons and challenges.
The Elements of Temporal Sentence Grounding in Videos: A Survey and Future Directions
Zhang, Hao, Sun, Aixin, Jing, Wei, Zhou, Joey Tianyi
Temporal sentence grounding in videos (TSGV), a.k.a., natural language video localization (NLVL) or video moment retrieval (VMR), aims to retrieve a temporal moment that semantically corresponds to a language query from an untrimmed video. Connecting computer vision and natural language, TSGV has drawn significant attention from researchers in both communities. This survey attempts to provide a summary of fundamental concepts in TSGV and current research status, as well as future research directions. As the background, we present a common structure of functional components in TSGV, in a tutorial style: from feature extraction from raw video and language query, to answer prediction of the target moment. Then we review the techniques for multimodal understanding and interaction, which is the key focus of TSGV for effective alignment between the two modalities. We construct a taxonomy of TSGV techniques and elaborate methods in different categories with their strengths and weaknesses. Lastly, we discuss issues with the current TSGV research and share our insights about promising research directions.
Artificial intelligence may reduce frequency of adverse drug events
Adverse drug events (ADEs), injuries related to drug-related medical interventions, are considered some of the most prevalent types of health-care-related harm. Given that these events are costly and often morbid, artificial intelligence (AI) is considered a promising tool in helping researchers and clinicians understand preventable and novel ADEs, as well as a patient's likelihood of having ADEs before receiving prescription medications. Researchers at Brigham and Women's Hospital conducted a scoping review of 78 articles to identify the key use cases in which AI could be harnessed to prevent or mitigate the effects of ADEs. The review's authors describe the use of AI to reduce the frequency of ADEs as an emerging area of study, and identify several use cases in which AI could contribute to reducing or preventing ADEs. Furthermore, genetic information is thought to be critical in improving the performance of AI algorithms. With the prevalence of genotyping, researchers are confident that this type of data can become more accessible over time, and can ultimately be used to improve AI algorithm functioning and patient health.
Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Machine Learning: Methods, Metrics, and Comparisons
Psaros, Apostolos F, Meng, Xuhui, Zou, Zongren, Guo, Ling, Karniadakis, George Em
Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with traditional methods. However, quantifying errors and uncertainties in NN-based inference is more complicated than in traditional methods. This is because in addition to aleatoric uncertainty associated with noisy data, there is also uncertainty due to limited data, but also due to NN hyperparameters, overparametrization, optimization and sampling errors as well as model misspecification. Although there are some recent works on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in NNs, there is no systematic investigation of suitable methods towards quantifying the total uncertainty effectively and efficiently even for function approximation, and there is even less work on solving partial differential equations and learning operator mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces using NNs. In this work, we present a comprehensive framework that includes uncertainty modeling, new and existing solution methods, as well as evaluation metrics and post-hoc improvement approaches. To demonstrate the applicability and reliability of our framework, we present an extensive comparative study in which various methods are tested on prototype problems, including problems with mixed input-output data, and stochastic problems in high dimensions. In the Appendix, we include a comprehensive description of all the UQ methods employed, which we will make available as open-source library of all codes included in this framework.