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Predicting Agricultural Commodities Prices with Machine Learning: A Review of Current Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agricultural price prediction is crucial for farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector. However, it is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of agricultural markets. Machine learning algorithms have the potential to revolutionize agricultural price prediction by improving accuracy, real-time prediction, customization, and integration. This paper reviews recent research on machine learning algorithms for agricultural price prediction. We discuss the importance of agriculture in developing countries and the problems associated with crop price falls. We then identify the challenges of predicting agricultural prices and highlight how machine learning algorithms can support better prediction. Next, we present a comprehensive analysis of recent research, discussing the strengths and weaknesses of various machine learning techniques. We conclude that machine learning has the potential to revolutionize agricultural price prediction, but further research is essential to address the limitations and challenges associated with this approach.


Hierarchical Framework for Interpretable and Probabilistic Model-Based Safe Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The difficulty of identifying the physical model of complex systems has led to exploring methods that do not rely on such complex modeling of the systems. Deep reinforcement learning has been the pioneer for solving this problem without the need for relying on the physical model of complex systems by just interacting with it. However, it uses a black-box learning approach that makes it difficult to be applied within real-world and safety-critical systems without providing explanations of the actions derived by the model. Furthermore, an open research question in deep reinforcement learning is how to focus the policy learning of critical decisions within a sparse domain. This paper proposes a novel approach for the use of deep reinforcement learning in safety-critical systems. It combines the advantages of probabilistic modeling and reinforcement learning with the added benefits of interpretability and works in collaboration and synchronization with conventional decision-making strategies. The BC-SRLA is activated in specific situations which are identified autonomously through the fused information of probabilistic model and reinforcement learning, such as abnormal conditions or when the system is near-to-failure. Further, it is initialized with a baseline policy using policy cloning to allow minimum interactions with the environment to address the challenges associated with using RL in safety-critical industries. The effectiveness of the BC-SRLA is demonstrated through a case study in maintenance applied to turbofan engines, where it shows superior performance to the prior art and other baselines.


Are NLP Models Good at Tracing Thoughts: An Overview of Narrative Understanding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Narrative understanding involves capturing the author's cognitive processes, providing insights into their knowledge, intentions, beliefs, and desires. Although large language models (LLMs) excel in generating grammatically coherent text, their ability to comprehend the author's thoughts remains uncertain. This limitation hinders the practical applications of narrative understanding. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of narrative understanding tasks, thoroughly examining their key features, definitions, taxonomy, associated datasets, training objectives, evaluation metrics, and limitations. Furthermore, we explore the potential of expanding the capabilities of modularized LLMs to address novel narrative understanding tasks. By framing narrative understanding as the retrieval of the author's imaginative cues that outline the narrative structure, our study introduces a fresh perspective on enhancing narrative comprehension.


FinBTech: Blockchain-Based Video and Voice Authentication System for Enhanced Security in Financial Transactions Utilizing FaceNet512 and Gaussian Mixture Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the digital age, it is crucial to make sure that financial transactions are as secure and reliable as possible. This abstract offers a ground-breaking method that combines smart contracts, blockchain technology, FaceNet512 for improved face recognition, and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) for speech authentication to create a system for video and audio verification that is unmatched. Smart contracts and the immutable ledger of the blockchain are combined to offer a safe and open environment for financial transactions. FaceNet512 and GMM offer multi-factor biometric authentication simultaneously, enhancing security to new heights. By combining cutting-edge technology, this system offers a strong defense against identity theft and illegal access, establishing a new benchmark for safe financial transactions.


MindLLM: Pre-training Lightweight Large Language Model from Scratch, Evaluations and Domain Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across various natural language tasks, marking significant strides towards general artificial intelligence. While general artificial intelligence is leveraged by developing increasingly large-scale models, there could be another branch to develop lightweight custom models that better serve certain domains, taking into account the high cost of training and deploying LLMs and the scarcity of resources. In this paper, we present MindLLM, a novel series of bilingual lightweight large language models, trained from scratch, alleviating such burdens by offering models with 1.3 billion and 3 billion parameters. A thorough account of experiences accrued during large model development is given, covering every step of the process, including data construction, model architecture, evaluation, and applications. Such insights are hopefully valuable for fellow academics and developers. MindLLM consistently matches or surpasses the performance of other open-source larger models on some public benchmarks. We also introduce an innovative instruction tuning framework tailored for smaller models to enhance their capabilities efficiently. Moreover, we explore the application of MindLLM in specific vertical domains such as law and finance, underscoring the agility and adaptability of our lightweight models.


DORIS-MAE: Scientific Document Retrieval using Multi-level Aspect-based Queries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In scientific research, the ability to effectively retrieve relevant documents based on complex, multifaceted queries is critical. Existing evaluation datasets for this task are limited, primarily due to the high cost and effort required to annotate resources that effectively represent complex queries. To address this, we propose a novel task, Scientific DOcument Retrieval using Multi-level Aspect-based quEries (DORIS-MAE), which is designed to handle the complex nature of user queries in scientific research. We developed a benchmark dataset within the field of computer science, consisting of 100 human-authored complex query cases. For each complex query, we assembled a collection of 100 relevant documents and produced annotated relevance scores for ranking them. Recognizing the significant labor of expert annotation, we also introduce Anno-GPT, a scalable framework for validating the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) on expert-level dataset annotation tasks. LLM annotation of the DORIS-MAE dataset resulted in a 500x reduction in cost, without compromising quality. Furthermore, due to the multi-tiered structure of these complex queries, the DORIS-MAE dataset can be extended to over 4,000 sub-query test cases without requiring additional annotation. We evaluated 17 recent retrieval methods on DORIS-MAE, observing notable performance drops compared to traditional datasets. This highlights the need for better approaches to handle complex, multifaceted queries in scientific research. Our dataset and codebase are available at https://github.com/Real-Doris-Mae/Doris-Mae-Dataset.


Learning Descriptive Image Captioning via Semipermeable Maximum Likelihood Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Image captioning aims to describe visual content in natural language. As 'a picture is worth a thousand words', there could be various correct descriptions for an image. However, with maximum likelihood estimation as the training objective, the captioning model is penalized whenever its prediction mismatches with the label. For instance, when the model predicts a word expressing richer semantics than the label, it will be penalized and optimized to prefer more concise expressions, referred to as conciseness optimization. In contrast, predictions that are more concise than labels lead to richness optimization. Such conflicting optimization directions could eventually result in the model generating general descriptions. In this work, we introduce Semipermeable MaxImum Likelihood Estimation (SMILE), which allows richness optimization while blocking conciseness optimization, thus encouraging the model to generate longer captions with more details. Extensive experiments on two mainstream image captioning datasets MSCOCO and Flickr30K demonstrate that SMILE significantly enhances the descriptiveness of generated captions. We further provide in-depth investigations to facilitate a better understanding of how SMILE works.


Fair Streaming Principal Component Analysis: Statistical and Algorithmic Viewpoint

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fair Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a problem setting where we aim to perform PCA while making the resulting representation fair in that the projected distributions, conditional on the sensitive attributes, match one another. However, existing approaches to fair PCA have two main problems: theoretically, there has been no statistical foundation of fair PCA in terms of learnability; practically, limited memory prevents us from using existing approaches, as they explicitly rely on full access to the entire data. On the theoretical side, we rigorously formulate fair PCA using a new notion called \emph{probably approximately fair and optimal} (PAFO) learnability. On the practical side, motivated by recent advances in streaming algorithms for addressing memory limitation, we propose a new setting called \emph{fair streaming PCA} along with a memory-efficient algorithm, fair noisy power method (FNPM). We then provide its {\it statistical} guarantee in terms of PAFO-learnability, which is the first of its kind in fair PCA literature. Lastly, we verify the efficacy and memory efficiency of our algorithm on real-world datasets.


Towards better traffic volume estimation: Jointly addressing the underdetermination and nonequilibrium problems with correlation-adaptive GNNs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Traffic volume is an indispensable ingredient to provide fine-grained information for traffic management and control. However, due to limited deployment of traffic sensors, obtaining full-scale volume information is far from easy. Existing works on this topic primarily focus on improving the overall estimation accuracy of a particular method and ignore the underlying challenges of volume estimation, thereby having inferior performances on some critical tasks. This paper studies two key problems with regard to traffic volume estimation: (1) underdetermined traffic flows caused by undetected movements, and (2) non-equilibrium traffic flows arise from congestion propagation. Here we demonstrate a graph-based deep learning method that can offer a data-driven, model-free and correlation adaptive approach to tackle the above issues and perform accurate network-wide traffic volume estimation. Particularly, in order to quantify the dynamic and nonlinear relationships between traffic speed and volume for the estimation of underdetermined flows, a speed patternadaptive adjacent matrix based on graph attention is developed and integrated into the graph convolution process, to capture non-local correlations between sensors. To measure the impacts of non-equilibrium flows, a temporal masked and clipped attention combined with a gated temporal convolution layer is customized to capture time-asynchronous correlations between upstream and downstream sensors. We then evaluate our model on a real-world highway traffic volume dataset and compare it with several benchmark models. It is demonstrated that the proposed model achieves high estimation accuracy even under 20% sensor coverage rate and outperforms other baselines significantly, especially on underdetermined and non-equilibrium flow locations. Furthermore, comprehensive quantitative model analysis are also carried out to justify the model designs.


Mixed Reality Environment and High-Dimensional Continuification Control for Swarm Robotics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A significant challenge in control theory and technology is to devise agile and less resource-intensive experiments for evaluating the performance and feasibility of control algorithms for the collective coordination of large-scale complex systems. Many new methodologies are based on macroscopic representations of the emerging system behavior, and can be easily validated only through numerical simulations, because of the inherent hurdle of developing full scale experimental platforms. In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid mixed reality set-up for testing swarm robotics techniques, focusing on the collective motion of robotic swarms. This hybrid apparatus combines both real differential drive robots and virtual agents to create a heterogeneous swarm of tunable size. We validate the methodology by extending to higher dimensions, and investigating experimentally, continuification-based control methods for swarms. Our study demonstrates the versatility and effectiveness of the platform for conducting large-scale swarm robotics experiments. Also, it contributes new theoretical insights into control algorithms exploiting continuification approaches.