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Conformal Prediction as Bayesian Quadrature

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques such as conformal prediction provide guarantees about the loss black-box models will incur even when the details of the models are hidden. However, such methods are based on frequentist probability, which unduly limits their applicability. We revisit the central aspects of conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and thereby illuminate the shortcomings of frequentist guarantees. We propose a practical alternative based on Bayesian quadrature that provides interpretable guarantees and offers a richer representation of the likely range of losses to be observed at test time.


Flow-based generative models as iterative algorithms in probability space

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative AI (GenAI) has revolutionized data-driven modeling by enabling the synthesis of high-dimensional data across various applications, including image generation, language modeling, biomedical signal processing, and anomaly detection. Flow-based generative models provide a powerful framework for capturing complex probability distributions, offering exact likelihood estimation, efficient sampling, and deterministic transformations between distributions. These models leverage invertible mappings governed by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs), enabling precise density estimation and likelihood evaluation. This tutorial presents an intuitive mathematical framework for flow-based generative models, formulating them as neural network-based representations of continuous probability densities. We explore key theoretical principles, including the Wasserstein metric, gradient flows, and density evolution governed by ODEs, to establish convergence guarantees and bridge empirical advancements with theoretical insights. By providing a rigorous yet accessible treatment, we aim to equip researchers and practitioners with the necessary tools to effectively apply flow-based generative models in signal processing and machine learning.


You need to MIMIC to get FAME: Solving Meeting Transcript Scarcity with a Multi-Agent Conversations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Meeting summarization suffers from limited high-quality data, mainly due to privacy restrictions and expensive collection processes. We address this gap with FAME, a dataset of 500 meetings in English and 300 in German produced by MIMIC, our new multi-agent meeting synthesis framework that generates meeting transcripts on a given knowledge source by defining psychologically grounded participant profiles, outlining the conversation, and orchestrating a large language model (LLM) debate. A modular post-processing step refines these outputs, mitigating potential repetitiveness and overly formal tones, ensuring coherent, credible dialogues at scale. We also propose a psychologically grounded evaluation framework assessing naturalness, social behavior authenticity, and transcript difficulties. Human assessments show that FAME approximates real-meeting spontaneity (4.5/5 in naturalness), preserves speaker-centric challenges (3/5 in spoken language), and introduces richer information-oriented difficulty (4/5 in difficulty). These findings highlight that FAME is a good and scalable proxy for real-world meeting conditions. It enables new test scenarios for meeting summarization research and other conversation-centric applications in tasks requiring conversation data or simulating social scenarios under behavioral constraints.


This 30 bundle helps you write, plan & create easier with ChatGPT

PCWorld

Artificial intelligence has changed the way we write, create, work, and plan--and with the 2025 ChatGPT Skills & Creativity Bundle, you'll be at the forefront of this revolution. For a limited time, you can access five expert-led courses that teach you how to supercharge your creativity, productivity, and AI skills for just 29.99 instead of 249. Whether you're an aspiring content creator, business professional, or someone who simply wants to make life easier with AI, this bundle will equip you with practical skills to get the most out of ChatGPT. From crafting engaging blog posts and video scripts to enhancing office productivity, bulk content creation, and even travel planning, this bundle offers real-world applications that will help you streamline your work and spark your creativity. The flagship course, Creative Writing & Content Creation with ChatGPT, guides you through advanced prompt engineering techniques to generate high-quality, engaging content while maintaining your unique voice.


Scaling up Test-Time Compute with Latent Reasoning: A Recurrent Depth Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study a novel language model architecture that is capable of scaling test-time computation by implicitly reasoning in latent space. Our model works by iterating a recurrent block, thereby unrolling to arbitrary depth at test-time. This stands in contrast to mainstream reasoning models that scale up compute by producing more tokens. Unlike approaches based on chain-of-thought, our approach does not require any specialized training data, can work with small context windows, and can capture types of reasoning that are not easily represented in words. We scale a proof-of-concept model to 3.5 billion parameters and 800 billion tokens. We show that the resulting model can improve its performance on reasoning benchmarks, sometimes dramatically, up to a computation load equivalent to 50 billion parameters.


Step-Video-T2V Technical Report: The Practice, Challenges, and Future of Video Foundation Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present Step-Video-T2V, a state-of-the-art text-to-video pre-trained model with 30B parameters and the ability to generate videos up to 204 frames in length. A deep compression Variational Autoencoder, Video-VAE, is designed for video generation tasks, achieving 16x16 spatial and 8x temporal compression ratios, while maintaining exceptional video reconstruction quality. User prompts are encoded using two bilingual text encoders to handle both English and Chinese. A DiT with 3D full attention is trained using Flow Matching and is employed to denoise input noise into latent frames. A video-based DPO approach, Video-DPO, is applied to reduce artifacts and improve the visual quality of the generated videos. We also detail our training strategies and share key observations and insights. Step-Video-T2V's performance is evaluated on a novel video generation benchmark, Step-Video-T2V-Eval, demonstrating its state-of-the-art text-to-video quality when compared with both open-source and commercial engines. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current diffusion-based model paradigm and outline future directions for video foundation models. We make both Step-Video-T2V and Step-Video-T2V-Eval available at https://github.com/stepfun-ai/Step-Video-T2V. The online version can be accessed from https://yuewen.cn/videos as well. Our goal is to accelerate the innovation of video foundation models and empower video content creators.


AAKT: Enhancing Knowledge Tracing with Alternate Autoregressive Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to predict students' future performances based on their former exercises and additional information in educational settings. KT has received significant attention since it facilitates personalized experiences in educational situations. Simultaneously, the autoregressive modeling on the sequence of former exercises has been proven effective for this task. One of the primary challenges in autoregressive modeling for Knowledge Tracing is effectively representing the anterior (pre-response) and posterior (post-response) states of learners across exercises. Existing methods often employ complex model architectures to update learner states using question and response records. In this study, we propose a novel perspective on knowledge tracing task by treating it as a generative process, consistent with the principles of autoregressive models. We demonstrate that knowledge states can be directly represented through autoregressive encodings on a question-response alternate sequence, where model generate the most probable representation in hidden state space by analyzing history interactions. This approach underpins our framework, termed Alternate Autoregressive Knowledge Tracing (AAKT). Additionally, we incorporate supplementary educational information, such as question-related skills, into our framework through an auxiliary task, and include extra exercise details, like response time, as additional inputs. Our proposed framework is implemented using advanced autoregressive technologies from Natural Language Generation (NLG) for both training and prediction. Empirical evaluations on four real-world KT datasets indicate that AAKT consistently outperforms all baseline models in terms of AUC, ACC, and RMSE. Furthermore, extensive ablation studies and visualized analysis validate the effectiveness of key components in AAKT.


M-ABSA: A Multilingual Dataset for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) is a crucial task in information extraction and sentiment analysis, aiming to identify aspects with associated sentiment elements in text. However, existing ABSA datasets are predominantly English-centric, limiting the scope for multilingual evaluation and research. To bridge this gap, we present M-ABSA, a comprehensive dataset spanning 7 domains and 21 languages, making it the most extensive multilingual parallel dataset for ABSA to date. Our primary focus is on triplet extraction, which involves identifying aspect terms, aspect categories, and sentiment polarities. The dataset is constructed through an automatic translation process with human review to ensure quality. We perform extensive experiments using various baselines to assess performance and compatibility on M-ABSA. Our empirical findings highlight that the dataset enables diverse evaluation tasks, such as multilingual and multi-domain transfer learning, and large language model evaluation, underscoring its inclusivity and its potential to drive advancements in multilingual ABSA research.


Could AI Leapfrog the Web? Evidence from Teachers in Sierra Leone

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Access to digital information is a driver of economic development. But although 85% of sub-Saharan Africa's population is covered by mobile broadband signal, only 37% use the internet, and those who do seldom use the web. We investigate whether AI can bridge this gap by analyzing how 469 teachers use an AI chatbot in Sierra Leone. The chatbot, accessible via a common messaging app, is compared against traditional web search. Teachers use AI more frequently than web search for teaching assistance. Data cost is the most frequently cited reason for low internet usage across Africa. The average web search result consumes 3,107 times more data than an AI response, making AI 87% less expensive than web search. Additionally, only 2% of results for corresponding web searches contain content from Sierra Leone. In blinded evaluations, an independent sample of teachers rate AI responses as more relevant, helpful, and correct than web search results. These findings suggest that AI-driven solutions can cost-effectively bridge information gaps in low-connectivity regions.


The Multi-Faceted Monosemanticity in Multimodal Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we leverage recent advancements in feature monosemanticity to extract interpretable features from deep multimodal models, offering a data-driven understanding of modality gaps. Specifically, we investigate CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining), a prominent visual-language representation model trained on extensive image-text pairs. Building upon interpretability tools developed for single-modal models, we extend these methodologies to assess multi-modal interpretability of CLIP features. Additionally, we introduce the Modality Dominance Score (MDS) to attribute the interpretability of each feature to its respective modality. Next, we transform CLIP features into a more interpretable space, enabling us to categorize them into three distinct classes: vision features (single-modal), language features (single-modal), and visual-language features (cross-modal). Our findings reveal that this categorization aligns closely with human cognitive understandings of different modalities. We also demonstrate significant use cases of this modality-specific features including detecting gender bias, adversarial attack defense and text-to-image model editing. These results indicate that large-scale multimodal models, equipped with task-agnostic interpretability tools, offer valuable insights into key connections and distinctions between different modalities.