US tech stocks have catapulted the Nasdaq to a record high as investors bet on strong earnings from corporate heavyweights. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.8 percent on Tuesday, as Google's parent company Alphabet reported forecast-beating earnings for the third quarter. Alphabet's revenue jumped 15 percent to 88.3bn during the July-September period, while profit surged 34 percent to 26.3 bn. Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said the company was experiencing "extraordinary" momentum due to the strong performance of its search and cloud businesses as well as its focus on innovation, including artificial intelligence. "Our commitment to innovation, as well as our long-term focus and investment in AI, are paying off and driving success for the company and for our customers," Pichai said on an earnings call.

Alphabet, parent of Google and YouTube, saw a third straight quarter of better-than-anticipated gains as it reported earnings on Tuesday. The tech giant had largely exceeded analyst expectations for the previous two quarters, and Tuesday's results showed growth in both digital advertising and demand for Google Cloud. Shares rose in after-hours training. "The momentum across the company is extraordinary. Our commitment to innovation, as well as our long-term focus and investment in AI, are paying off with consumers and partners benefiting from our AI tools," said the CEO, Sundar Pichai. Analysts expected 12% year-on-year revenue growth, to 86.23bn, and earnings per share of 1.85.

Fact-checking is extensively studied in the context of misinformation and disinformation, addressing objective inaccuracies. However, a softer form of misinformation involves responses that are factually correct but lack certain features such as clarity and relevance. This challenge is prevalent in formal Question-Answer (QA) settings such as press conferences in finance, politics, sports, and other domains, where subjective answers can obscure transparency. Despite this, there is a lack of manually annotated datasets for subjective features across multiple dimensions. To address this gap, we introduce SubjECTive-QA, a human annotated dataset on Earnings Call Transcripts' (ECTs) QA sessions as the answers given by company representatives are often open to subjective interpretations and scrutiny. The dataset includes 49,446 annotations for long-form QA pairs across six features: Assertive, Cautious, Optimistic, Specific, Clear, and Relevant. These features are carefully selected to encompass the key attributes that reflect the tone of the answers provided during QA sessions across different domain. Our findings are that the best-performing Pre-trained Language Model (PLM), RoBERTa-base, has similar weighted F1 scores to Llama-3-70b-Chat on features with lower subjectivity, such as Relevant and Clear, with a mean difference of 2.17% in their weighted F1 scores. The models perform significantly better on features with higher subjectivity, such as Specific and Assertive, with a mean difference of 10.01% in their weighted F1 scores. Furthermore, testing SubjECTive-QA's generalizability using QAs from White House Press Briefings and Gaggles yields an average weighted F1 score of 65.97% using our best models for each feature, demonstrating broader applicability beyond the financial domain. SubjECTive-QA is publicly available under the CC BY 4.0 license

Tesla shares saw an 8% jump after reporting its third quarter earnings on Wednesday. The electric car manufacturer was able to bounce back from a tough second quarter, beating Wall Street expectations for earnings per share. The company reported an earnings-per-share of 0.72, surpassing investors' projection of 0.60. At the end of the second quarter, Tesla's chief executive, Elon Musk, said the nearly 50% drop in profits was temporary and due to difficulty competing with cheaper or price-slashed electric vehicles by rival companies such as BYD. "We don't see this as a long-term issue," Musk said in July, "but really fairly short term."

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has initiated much research into their various financial applications. However, in applying LLMs on long documents, semantic relations are not explicitly incorporated, and a full or arbitrarily sparse attention operation is employed. In recent years, progress has been made in Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR), which is a graph-based representation of text to preserve its semantic relations. Since AMR can represent semantic relationships at a deeper level, it can be beneficially utilized by graph neural networks (GNNs) for constructing effective document-level graph representations built upon LLM embeddings to predict target metrics in the financial domain. We propose FLAG: Financial Long document classification via AMR-based GNN, an AMR graph based framework to generate document-level embeddings for long financial document classification. We construct document-level graphs from sentence-level AMR graphs, endow them with specialized LLM word embeddings in the financial domain, apply a deep learning mechanism that utilizes a GNN, and examine the efficacy of our AMR-based approach in predicting labeled target data from long financial documents. Extensive experiments are conducted on a dataset of quarterly earnings calls transcripts of companies in various sectors of the economy, as well as on a corpus of more recent earnings calls of companies in the S&P 1500 Composite Index. We find that our AMR-based approach outperforms fine-tuning LLMs directly on text in predicting stock price movement trends at different time horizons in both datasets. Our work also outperforms previous work utilizing document graphs and GNNs for text classification.

Company fundamentals are key to assessing companies' financial and overall success and stability. Forecasting them is important in multiple fields, including investing and econometrics. While statistical and contemporary machine learning methods have been applied to many time series tasks, there is a lack of comparison of these approaches on this particularly challenging data regime. To this end, we try to bridge this gap and thoroughly evaluate the theoretical properties and practical performance of 22 deterministic and probabilistic company fundamentals forecasting models on real company data. We observe that deep learning models provide superior forcasting performance to classical models, in particular when considering uncertainty estimation. To validate the findings, we compare them to human analyst expectations and find that their accuracy is comparable to the automatic forecasts. We further show how these high-quality forecasts can benefit automated stock allocation. We close by presenting possible ways of integrating domain experts to further improve performance and increase reliability.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has announced a forecast-busting quarterly profit amid surging demand for chips used to power artificial intelligence. TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported a net profit of 352.3 billion Taiwanese dollars ( 10.1bn) for the third quarter, up 54.2 percent from the same period last year. The figure marked the firm's best-ever quarterly performance and was comfortably ahead of market estimates. TSMC said revenues hit 23.5bn, up 36 percent on-year, and that full-year revenue was forecast to grow nearly 30 percent. "Our business in the third quarter was supported by strong smartphone and AI-related demand for our industry-leading three nanometre and five nanometre technologies," TSMC chairman CC Wei said in a briefing to analysts.

Countless decisions shape our daily lives, and it is paramount to understand the how and why behind these choices. In this paper, we introduce a new LLM decision-making framework called STRUX, which enhances LLM decision-making by providing structured explanations. These include favorable and adverse facts related to the decision, along with their respective strengths. STRUX begins by distilling lengthy information into a concise table of key facts. It then employs a series of self-reflection steps to determine which of these facts are pivotal, categorizing them as either favorable or adverse in relation to a specific decision. Lastly, we fine-tune an LLM to identify and prioritize these key facts to optimize decision-making. STRUX has been evaluated on the challenging task of forecasting stock investment decisions based on earnings call transcripts and demonstrated superior performance against strong baselines. It enhances decision transparency by allowing users to understand the impact of different factors, representing a meaningful step towards practical decision-making with LLMs.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to advance, it demonstrates capabilities comparable to human intelligence, with significant potential to transform education and workforce development. This study evaluates OpenAI o1-preview's ability to perform higher-order cognitive tasks across 14 dimensions, including critical thinking, systems thinking, computational thinking, design thinking, metacognition, data literacy, creative thinking, abstract reasoning, quantitative reasoning, logical reasoning, analogical reasoning, and scientific reasoning. We used validated instruments like the Ennis-Weir Critical Thinking Essay Test and the Biological Systems Thinking Test to compare the o1-preview's performance with human performance systematically. Our findings reveal that o1-preview outperforms humans in most categories, achieving 150% better results in systems thinking, computational thinking, data literacy, creative thinking, scientific reasoning, and abstract reasoning. However, compared to humans, it underperforms by around 25% in logical reasoning, critical thinking, and quantitative reasoning. In analogical reasoning, both o1-preview and humans achieved perfect scores. Despite these strengths, the o1-preview shows limitations in abstract reasoning, where human psychology students outperform it, highlighting the continued importance of human oversight in tasks requiring high-level abstraction. These results have significant educational implications, suggesting a shift toward developing human skills that complement AI, such as creativity, abstract reasoning, and critical thinking. This study emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in education and calls for a recalibration of educational goals, teaching methods, and curricula to align with an AI-driven world.

In this paper, we investigate the influence of claims in analyst reports and earnings calls on financial market returns, considering them as significant quarterly events for publicly traded companies. To facilitate a comprehensive analysis, we construct a new financial dataset for the claim detection task in the financial domain. We benchmark various language models on this dataset and propose a novel weak-supervision model that incorporates the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) in the aggregation function, outperforming existing approaches. We also demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed model by constructing a novel measure of optimism. Here, we observe the dependence of earnings surprise and return on our optimism measure. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly (under CC BY 4.0 license) available on GitHub.