Spiking reservoir computing provides an energy-efficient approach to temporal processing, but reliably tuning reservoirs to operate at the edge-of-chaos is challenging due to experimental uncertainty. This work bridges abstract notions of criticality and practical stability by introducing and exploiting the robustness interval, an operational measure of the hyperparameter range over which a reservoir maintains performance above task-dependent thresholds. Through systematic evaluations of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) architectures on both static (MNIST) and temporal (synthetic Ball Trajectories) tasks, we identify consistent monotonic trends in the robustness interval across a broad spectrum of network configurations: the robustness-interval width decreases with presynaptic connection density $β$ (i.e., directly with sparsity) and directly with the firing threshold $θ$. We further identify specific $(β, θ)$ pairs that preserve the analytical mean-field critical point $w_{\text{crit}}$, revealing iso-performance manifolds in the hyperparameter space. Control experiments on Erdős-Rényi graphs show the phenomena persist beyond small-world topologies. Finally, our results show that $w_{\text{crit}}$ consistently falls within empirical high-performance regions, validating $w_{\text{crit}}$ as a robust starting coordinate for parameter search and fine-tuning. To ensure reproducibility, the full Python code is publicly available.

We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and disconnected prediction sets, signifying the emergence of bifurcations. Our approach uses existing estimated conditional highest density predictive regions to form initial predictive regions. We then use a quantile random forest conformal adjustment to provide guaranteed coverage while adaptively changing to take the non-exchangeable nature of time-series data into account. We show that the proposed method achieves the guaranteed coverage rate asymptotically under certain regularity conditions. In particular, the method is doubly robust -- it works if the predictive density model is correctly specified and/or if the scores follow a nonlinear autoregressive model with the correct order specified. Simulations reveal that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of empirical coverage rates and set sizes. We illustrate the method using two real datasets, the Old Faithful geyser dataset and the Australian electricity usage dataset. Prediction sets formed using SCDR for the geyser eruption durations include both single intervals and unions of two intervals, whereas existing methods produce wider, less informative, single-interval prediction sets.

Autoencoders are widely used for dimensionality reduction, based on the assumption that high-dimensional data lies on low-dimensional manifolds. Regularized autoencoders aim to preserve manifold geometry during dimensionality reduction, but existing approaches often suffer from non-injective mappings and overly rigid constraints that limit their effectiveness and robustness. In this work, we identify encoder non-injectivity as a core bottleneck that leads to poor convergence and distorted latent representations. To ensure robustness across data distributions, we formalize the concept of admissible regularization and provide sufficient conditions for its satisfaction. In this work, we propose the Bi-Lipschitz Autoencoder (BLAE), which introduces two key innovations: (1) an injective regularization scheme based on a separation criterion to eliminate pathological local minima, and (2) a bi-Lipschitz relaxation that preserves geometry and exhibits robustness to data distribution drift. Empirical results on diverse datasets show that BLAE consistently outperforms existing methods in preserving manifold structure while remaining resilient to sampling sparsity and distribution shifts. Code is available at https://github.com/qipengz/BLAE.

Multi-objective bandits have attracted increasing attention because of their broad applicability and mathematical elegance, where the reward of each arm is a multi-dimensional vector rather than a scalar. This naturally introduces Pareto order relations and Pareto regret. A long-standing question in this area is whether performance is fundamentally harder to optimize because of this added complexity. A recent surprising result shows that, in the adversarial setting, Pareto regret is no larger than classical regret; however, in the stochastic setting, where the regret notion is different, the picture remains unclear. In fact, existing work suggests that Pareto regret in the stochastic case increases with the dimensionality. This controversial yet subtle phenomenon motivates our central question: \emph{are multi-objective bandits actually harder than single-objective ones?} We answer this question in full by showing that, in the stochastic setting, Pareto regret is in fact governed by the maximum sub-optimality gap \(g^\dagger\), and hence by the minimum marginal regret of order \(Ω(\frac{K\log T}{g^\dagger})\). We further develop a new algorithm that achieves Pareto regret of order \(O(\frac{K\log T}{g^\dagger})\), and is therefore optimal. The algorithm leverages a nested two-layer uncertainty quantification over both arms and objectives through upper and lower confidence bound estimators. It combines a top-two racing strategy for arm selection with an uncertainty-greedy rule for dimension selection. Together, these components balance exploration and exploitation across the two layers. We also conduct comprehensive numerical experiments to validate the proposed algorithm, showing the desired regret guarantee and significant gains over benchmark methods.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) such as TabPFN (Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network) are designed to generalize across heterogeneous tabular datasets through in-context learning (ICL). They perform prediction in a single forward pass conditioned on labeled examples without dataset-specific parameter updates. This paradigm is particularly attractive in industrial domains (e.g., finance and healthcare) where tabular prediction is pervasive. Retraining a bespoke model for each new table can be costly or infeasible in these settings, while data quality issues such as irrelevant predictors, correlated feature groups, and label noise are common. In this paper, we provide strong empirical evidence that TabPFN is highly robust under these sub-optimal conditions. We study TabPFN and its attention mechanisms for binary classification problems with controlled synthetic perturbations that vary: (i) dataset width by injecting random uncorrelated features and by introducing nonlinearly correlated features, (ii) dataset size by increasing the number of training rows, and (iii) label quality by increasing the fraction of mislabeled targets. Beyond predictive performance, we analyze internal signals including attention concentration and attention-based feature ranking metrics. Across these parametric tests, TabPFN is remarkably resilient: ROC-AUC remains high, attention stays structured and sharp, and informative features are highly ranked by attention-based metrics. Qualitative visualizations with attention heatmaps, feature-token embeddings, and SHAP plots further support a consistent pattern across layers in which TabPFN increasingly concentrates on useful features while separating their signals from noise. Together, these findings suggest that TabPFN is a robust TFM capable of maintaining both predictive performance and coherent internal behavior under various scenarios of data imperfections.

We study stochastic convex optimization (SCO) with heavy-tailed gradients under pure epsilon-differential privacy (DP). Instead of assuming a bound on the worst-case Lipschitz parameter of the loss, we assume only a bounded k-th moment. This assumption allows for unbounded, heavy-tailed stochastic gradient distributions, and can yield sharper excess risk bounds. The minimax optimal rate for approximate (epsilon, delta)-DP SCO is known in this setting, but the pure epsilon-DP case has remained open. We characterize the minimax optimal excess-risk rate for pure epsilon-DP heavy-tailed SCO up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm achieves this rate in polynomial time with high probability. Moreover, it runs in polynomial time with probability 1 when the worst-case Lipschitz parameter is polynomially bounded. For important structured problem classes - including hinge/ReLU-type and absolute-value losses on Euclidean balls, ellipsoids, and polytopes - we achieve the same excess-risk guarantee in polynomial time with probability 1 even when the worst-case Lipschitz parameter is infinite. Our approach is based on a novel framework for privately optimizing Lipschitz extensions of the empirical loss. We complement our excess risk upper bound with a novel high probability lower bound.

We propose a method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation based on partitioning covariate-sorted observations into contiguous bins and using the within-bin empirical CDF as the predictive distribution. Bin boundaries are chosen to minimise the total leave-one-out Continuous Ranked Probability Score (LOO-CRPS), which admits a closed-form cost function with $O(n^2 \log n)$ precomputation and $O(n^2)$ storage; the globally optimal $K$-partition is recovered by a dynamic programme in $O(n^2 K)$ time. Minimisation of within-sample LOO-CRPS turns out to be inappropriate for selecting $K$ as it results in in-sample optimism. We instead select $K$ by $K$-fold cross-validation of test CRPS, which yields a U-shaped criterion with a well-defined minimum. Having selected $K^*$ and fitted the full-data partition, we form two complementary predictive objects: the Venn prediction band and a conformal prediction set based on CRPS as the nonconformity score, which carries a finite-sample marginal coverage guarantee at any prescribed level $\varepsilon$. The conformal prediction is transductive and data-efficient, as all observations are used for both partitioning and p-value calculation, with no need to reserve a hold-out set. On real benchmarks against split-conformal competitors (Gaussian split conformal, CQR, CQR-QRF, and conformalized isotonic distributional regression), the method produces substantially narrower prediction intervals while maintaining near-nominal coverage.

We introduce Lumbermark, a robust divisive clustering algorithm capable of detecting clusters of varying sizes, densities, and shapes. Lumbermark iteratively chops off large limbs connected by protruding segments of a dataset's mutual reachability minimum spanning tree. The use of mutual reachability distances smoothens the data distribution and decreases the influence of low-density objects, such as noise points between clusters or outliers at their peripheries. The algorithm can be viewed as an alternative to HDBSCAN that produces partitions with user-specified sizes. A fast, easy-to-use implementation of the new method is available in the open-source 'lumbermark' package for Python and R. We show that Lumbermark performs well on benchmark data and hope it will prove useful to data scientists and practitioners across different fields.

Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned blockwise dependence, with distinct patterns within and across blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new class of time series Gaussian chain graph models that represent contemporaneous and lagged causal relations via directed edges across blocks, while capturing within-block conditional dependencies through undirected edges. In the frequency domain, this formulation induces a cross-frequency shared group sparse plus group low-rank decomposition of the inverse spectral density matrices, which we exploit to establish identifiability of the time series chain graph structure. Building on this, we then propose a three-stage learning procedure for estimating the undirected and directed edge sets, which involves optimizing a regularized Whittle likelihood with a group lasso penalty to encourage group sparsity and a novel tensor-unfolding nuclear norm penalty to enforce group low-rank structure. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed method, ensuring its consistency for exact recovery of the chain graph structure. The superior empirical performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through both extensive simulation studies and an application to U.S. macroeconomic data that highlights key monetary policy transmission mechanisms.

Protecting individual privacy is essential across research domains, from socio-economic surveys to big-tech user data. This need is particularly acute in healthcare, where analyses often involve sensitive patient information. A typical example is comparing treatment efficacy across hospitals or ensuring consistency in diagnostic laboratory calibrations, both requiring privacy-preserving statistical procedures. However, standard equivalence testing procedures for differences in proportions or means, commonly used to assess average equivalence, can inadvertently disclose sensitive information. To address this problem, we develop differentially private equivalence testing procedures that rely on simulation-based calibration, as the finite-sample distribution is analytically intractable. Our approach introduces a unified framework, termed DP-TOST, for conducting differentially private equivalence testing of both means and proportions. Through numerical simulations and real-world applications, we demonstrate that the proposed method maintains type-I error control at the nominal level and achieves power comparable to its non-private counterpart as the privacy budget and/or sample size increases, while ensuring strong privacy guarantees. These findings establish a reliable and practical framework for privacy-preserving equivalence testing in high-stakes fields such as healthcare, among others.