We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the likelihood function p_{\theta}(x) of different parameters \theta in the VAR model as features to describe x. To compare two time series x and x', we form the product of their features p_{\theta}(x) p_{\theta}(x') which is integrated out w.r.t \theta using a matrix normal-inverse Wishart prior. Among other properties, this kernel can be easily computed when the dimension d of the time series is much larger than the lengths of the considered time series x and x'. It can also be generalized to time series taking values in arbitrary state spaces, as long as the state space itself is endowed with a kernel \kappa. In that case, the kernel between x and x' is a a function of the Gram matrices produced by \kappa on observations and subsequences of observations enumerated in x and x'. We describe a computationally efficient implementation of this generalization that uses low-rank matrix factorization techniques. These kernels are compared to other known kernels using a set of benchmark classification tasks carried out with support vector machines.

We extend a recent synchronization analysis of exact finite-state sources to nonexact sources for which synchronization occurs only asymptotically. Although the proof methods are quite different, the primary results remain the same. We find that an observer's average uncertainty in the source state vanishes exponentially fast and, as a consequence, an observer's average uncertainty in predicting future output converges exponentially fast to the source entropy rate.

We analyze how an observer synchronizes to the internal state of a finite-state information source, using the epsilon-machine causal representation. Here, we treat the case of exact synchronization, when it is possible for the observer to synchronize completely after a finite number of observations. The more difficult case of strictly asymptotic synchronization is treated in a sequel. In both cases, we find that an observer, on average, will synchronize to the source state exponentially fast and that, as a result, the average accuracy in an observer's predictions of the source output approaches its optimal level exponentially fast as well. Additionally, we show here how to analytically calculate the synchronization rate for exact epsilon-machines and provide an efficient polynomial-time algorithm to test epsilon-machines for exactness.

We analyze the convergence behaviour of a recently proposed algorithm for regularized estimation called Dual Augmented Lagrangian (DAL). Our analysis is based on a new interpretation of DAL as a proximal minimization algorithm. We theoretically show under some conditions that DAL converges super-linearly in a non-asymptotic and global sense. Due to a special modelling of sparse estimation problems in the context of machine learning, the assumptions we make are milder and more natural than those made in conventional analysis of augmented Lagrangian algorithms. In addition, the new interpretation enables us to generalize DAL to wide varieties of sparse estimation problems. We experimentally confirm our analysis in a large scale $\ell_1$-regularized logistic regression problem and extensively compare the efficiency of DAL algorithm to previously proposed algorithms on both synthetic and benchmark datasets.

Using the notion of an elementary loop, Gebser and Schaub refined the theorem on loop formulas due to Lin and Zhao by considering loop formulas of elementary loops only. In this article, we reformulate their definition of an elementary loop, extend it to disjunctive programs, and study several properties of elementary loops, including how maximal elementary loops are related to minimal unfounded sets. The results provide useful insights into the stable model semantics in terms of elementary loops. For a nondisjunctive program, using a graph-theoretic characterization of an elementary loop, we show that the problem of recognizing an elementary loop is tractable. On the other hand, we show that the corresponding problem is {\sf coNP}-complete for a disjunctive program. Based on the notion of an elementary loop, we present the class of Head-Elementary-loop-Free (HEF) programs, which strictly generalizes the class of Head-Cycle-Free (HCF) programs due to Ben-Eliyahu and Dechter. Like an HCF program, an HEF program can be turned into an equivalent nondisjunctive program in polynomial time by shifting head atoms into the body.

In this theoretical paper we are concerned with the problem of learning a value function by a smooth general function approximator, to solve a deterministic episodic control problem in a large continuous state space. It is shown that learning the gradient of the value-function at every point along a trajectory generated by a greedy policy is a sufficient condition for the trajectory to be locally extremal, and often locally optimal, and we argue that this brings greater efficiency to value-function learning. This contrasts to traditional value-function learning in which the value-function must be learnt over the whole of state space. It is also proven that policy-gradient learning applied to a greedy policy on a value-function produces a weight update equivalent to a value-gradient weight update, which provides a surprising connection between these two alternative paradigms of reinforcement learning, and a convergence proof for control problems with a value function represented by a general smooth function approximator.

For a density f on R^d, a high-density cluster is any connected component of {x: f(x) >= c}, for some c > 0. The set of all high-density clusters form a hierarchy called the cluster tree of f. We present a procedure for estimating the cluster tree given samples from f. We give finite-sample convergence rates for our algorithm, as well as lower bounds on the sample complexity of this estimation problem.

Communication between a speaker and hearer will be most efficient when both parties make accurate inferences about the other. We study inference and communication in a television game called Password, where speakers must convey secret words to hearers by providing one-word clues. Our working hypothesis is that human communication is relatively efficient, and we use game show data to examine three predictions. First, we predict that speakers and hearers are both considerate, and that both take the other's perspective into account. Second, we predict that speakers and hearers are calibrated, and that both make accurate assumptions about the strategy used by the other. Finally, we predict that speakers and hearers are collaborative, and that they tend to share the cognitive burden of communication equally. We find evidence in support of all three predictions, and demonstrate in addition that efficient communication tends to break down when speakers and hearers are placed under time pressure.

Network models are widely used to capture interactions among component of complex systems, such as social and biological. To understand their behavior, it is often necessary to analyze functionally related components of the system, corresponding to subsystems. Therefore, the analysis of subnetworks may provide additional insight into the behavior of the system, not evident from individual components. We propose a novel approach for incorporating available network information into the analysis of arbitrary subnetworks. The proposed method offers an efficient dimension reduction strategy using Laplacian eigenmaps with Neumann boundary conditions, and provides a flexible inference framework for analysis of subnetworks, based on a group-penalized principal component regression model on graphs. Asymptotic properties of the proposed inference method, as well as the choice of the tuning parameter for control of the false positive rate are discussed in high dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated using simulated and real data examples from biology.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been successfully applied to many tasks such as digit and object recognition. Using convolutional (tied) weights significantly reduces the number of parameters that have to be learned, and also allows translational invariance to be hard-coded into the architecture. In this paper, we consider the problem of learning invariances, rather than relying on hard-coding. We propose tiled convolution neural networks (Tiled CNNs), which use a regular “tiled” pattern of tied weights that does not require that adjacent hidden units share identical weights, but instead requires only that hidden units k steps away from each other to have tied weights. By pooling over neighboring units, this architecture is able to learn complex invariances (such as scale and rotational invariance) beyond translational invariance. Further, it also enjoys much of CNNs’ advantage of having a relatively small number of learned parameters (such as ease of learning and greater scalability). We provide an efficient learning algorithm for Tiled CNNs based on Topographic ICA, and show that learning complex invariant features allows us to achieve highly competitive results for both the NORB and CIFAR-10 datasets.