Stochastic Kronecker graphs supply a parsimonious model for large sparse real world graphs. They can specify the distribution of a large random graph using only three or four parameters. Those parameters have however proved difficult to choose in specific applications. This article looks at method of moments estimators that are computationally much simpler than maximum likelihood. The estimators are fast and in our examples, they typically yield Kronecker parameters with expected feature counts closer to a given graph than we get from KronFit. The improvement was especially prominent for the number of triangles in the graph.

We present a general probabilistic perspective on Gaussian filtering and smoothing. This allows us to show that common approaches to Gaussian filtering/smoothing can be distinguished solely by their methods of computing/approximating the means and covariances of joint probabilities. This implies that novel filters and smoothers can be derived straightforwardly by providing methods for computing these moments. Based on this insight, we derive the cubature Kalman smoother and propose a novel robust filtering and smoothing algorithm based on Gibbs sampling. Inference in latent variable models is about extracting information about a not directly observable quantity, the latent variable, from noisy observations. Both recursive and batch methods are of interest and referred to as filtering respective smoothing. Filtering and smoothing in latent variable time series models, including hidden Markov models and dynamic systems, have been playing an important role in signal processing, control, and machine learning for decades [12, 15, 3].

In this paper, we first demonstrate that b-bit minwise hashing, whose estimators are positive definite kernels, can be naturally integrated with learning algorithms such as SVM and logistic regression. We adopt a simple scheme to transform the nonlinear (resemblance) kernel into linear (inner product) kernel; and hence large-scale problems can be solved extremely efficiently. Our method provides a simple effective solution to large-scale learning in massive and extremely high-dimensional datasets, especially when data do not fit in memory. We then compare b-bit minwise hashing with the Vowpal Wabbit (VW) algorithm (which is related the Count-Min (CM) sketch). Interestingly, VW has the same variances as random projections. Our theoretical and empirical comparisons illustrate that usually $b$-bit minwise hashing is significantly more accurate (at the same storage) than VW (and random projections) in binary data. Furthermore, $b$-bit minwise hashing can be combined with VW to achieve further improvements in terms of training speed, especially when $b$ is large.

This article introduces both a new algorithm for reconstructing epsilon-machines from data, as well as the decisional states. These are defined as the internal states of a system that lead to the same decision, based on a user-provided utility or pay-off function. The utility function encodes some a priori knowledge external to the system, it quantifies how bad it is to make mistakes. The intrinsic underlying structure of the system is modeled by an epsilon-machine and its causal states. The decisional states form a partition of the lower-level causal states that is defined according to the higher-level user's knowledge. In a complex systems perspective, the decisional states are thus the "emerging" patterns corresponding to the utility function. The transitions between these decisional states correspond to events that lead to a change of decision. The new REMAPF algorithm estimates both the epsilon-machine and the decisional states from data. Application examples are given for hidden model reconstruction, cellular automata filtering, and edge detection in images.

Imitation can be viewed as a means of enhancing learning in multiagent environments. It augments an agent's ability to learn useful behaviors by making intelligent use of the knowledge implicit in behaviors demonstrated by cooperative teachers or other more experienced agents. We propose and study a formal model of implicit imitation that can accelerate reinforcement learning dramatically in certain cases. Roughly, by observing a mentor, a reinforcement-learning agent can extract information about its own capabilities in, and the relative value of, unvisited parts of the state space. We study two specific instantiations of this model, one in which the learning agent and the mentor have identical abilities, and one designed to deal with agents and mentors with different action sets. We illustrate the benefits of implicit imitation by integrating it with prioritized sweeping, and demonstrating improved performance and convergence through observation of single and multiple mentors. Though we make some stringent assumptions regarding observability and possible interactions, we briefly comment on extensions of the model that relax these restricitions.

We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk minimization for model selection. We demonstrate our methods by predicting interest rate movements.

This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we show that consistent recovery is possible even when the number of observations of the network is far less than the number of parameters describing the network, provided that the false connection score is less than one. The false connection score is also demonstrated to be a useful metric of recovery in non-asymptotic regimes. The conditions suggest a modified gLasso procedure which tends to improve the false connection score and reduce the chances of reversing the direction of causal influence. Computational experiments and a real network based electrocorticogram (ECoG) simulation study demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Such maps specify the topology of important landmarks and situations (states), and routes or transitions (arcs) between them. They are concerned less with the physical location of landmarks, and more with topological relationships between situations. Typically, they are less complex and support much more ecient planning than metric maps. Topological maps are built on lowerlevel abstractions that allow the robot to move along arcs (perhaps by wall-or road-following), to recognize properties of locations, and to distinguish signicant locations as states; they are exible in allowing a more general notion of state, possibly including information about the non-geometrical aspects of the robot's situation. There are two typical strategies for deriving topological maps: one is to learn the topological map directly; the other is to rst learn a geometric map, then to derive a topological model from it through some process of analysis. A nice example of the second approach is provided by Thrun and B--ucken (1996a, 1996b; Thrun, 1999), who use occupancy-grid techniques to build the initial map. This strategy is appropriate when the primary cues for decomposition and abstraction of the map are geometric. However, in many cases, the nodes of a topological map are dened in terms of other sensory data (e.g., labels on a door or whether or not the robot is holding a bagel). Learning a geometric map rst also relies on the odometric abilities of a robot; if they are weak and the space is large, it is very dicult to derive a consistent map.

TAC was designed to create a benchmark problem in the complex domain of e-marketplaces and to motivate researchers to apply unique approaches to a common task. Their goals included providing a benchmark problem in the complex and rapidly advancing domain of e-marketplaces (Eisenberg, 2000) and motivating researchers to apply unique approaches to a common task. Another key feature of TAC was that participating agents competed against each other in a preliminary round and many practice games leading up to the nals. Thus, developers changed strategies in response to each others' agents in a sort of escalating arms race. Leading into the competition day, a wide variety of scenarios were possible. A successful agent needed to be able to perform well in any of these possible circumstances.

Designing the dialogue policy of a spoken dialogue system involves many nontrivial choices. This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach for automatically optimizing a dialogue policy, which addresses the technical challenges in applying reinforcement learning to a working dialogue system with human users. We report on the design, construction and empirical evaluation of NJFun, an experimental spoken dialogue system that provides users with access to information about fun things to do in New Jersey. Our results show that by optimizing its performance via reinforcement learning, NJFun measurably improves system performance.