In recent years, environmental sustainability has received widespread attention due to continued depletion of natural resources and degradation of the environment. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a methodology for quantifying multiple environmental impacts of a product, across its entire life cycle — from creation to use to discard. The key object of interest in LCA is the inventory tree, with the desired product as the root node and the materials and processes used across its life cycle as the children. The total impact of the parent in any environmental category is a linear combination of the impacts of the children in that category. LCA has generally been used in "forward: mode: given an inventory tree and impact factors of its children, the task is to compute the impact factors of the root, i.e., the product being modeled. We propose a data mining approach to solve the inverse problem, where the task is to infer inventory trees from a database of environmental factors. This is an important problem with applications in not just understanding what parts and processes constitute a product but also in designing and developing more sustainable alternatives. Our solution methodology is one of feature selection but set in the context of a non-negative least squares problem. It organizes numerous non-negative least squares fits over the impact factor database into a set of pairwise membership relations which are then summarized into candidate trees in turn yielding a consensus tree. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach over real LCA datasets obtained from a large computer manufacturer.

Spread of infections (diseases, ideas, etc.) in a network can be modeled as the evolution of states of nodes in a graph as a function of the states of their neighbors. Given an initial configuration of a network in which a subset of the nodes have been infected, and an infection propagation function that specifies how the states of the nodes evolve over time, we show how to use model checking to identify, verify, and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention policies for containing the propagation of infection over such networks.

Traditionally routing has focused on finding shortest paths in networks with positive, static edge costs representing the distance between two nodes. Energy-optimal routing for electric vehicles creates novel algorithmic challenges, as simply understanding edge costs as energy values and applying standard algorithms does not work. First, edge costs can be negative due to recuperation, excluding Dijkstra-like algorithms. Second, edge costs may depend on parameters such as vehicle weight only known at query time, ruling out existing preprocessing techniques. Third, considering battery capacity limitations implies that the cost of a path is no longer just the sum of its edge costs. This paper shows how these challenges can be met within the framework of A* search. We show how the specific domain gives rise to a consistent heuristic function yielding an O(n 2 ) routing algorithm. Moreover, we show how battery constraints can be treated by dynamically adapting edge costs and hence can be handled in the same way as parameters given at query time, without increasing run-time complexity. Experimental results with real road networks and vehicle data demonstrate the advantages of our solution.

One proposed approach to managing a large complex Smart Grid is through Broker Agents who buy electrical power from distributed producers, and also sell power to consumers, via a Tariff Market--a new market mechanism where Broker Agents publish concurrent bid and ask prices. A key challenge is the specification of the market strategy that the Broker Agents should use in order to earn profits while maintaining the market's balance of supply and demand. Interestingly, previous work has shown that a Broker Agent can learn its strategy, using Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Q-learning, and outperform other Broker Agents that use predetermined or randomized strategies. In this work, we investigate the more representative scenario in which multiple Broker Agents, instead of a single one, are independently learning their strategies. Using a simulation environment based on real data, we find that Broker Agents who employ periodic increases in exploration achieve higher rewards. We also find that varying levels of market dominance in customer allocation models result in remarkably distinct outcomes in market prices and aggregate Broker Agent rewards. The latter set of results can be explained by established economic principles regarding the emergence of monopolies in market-based competition, further validating our approach.

Information about the spread of crop disease is vital in developing countries, and as a result the governments of such countries devote scarce resources to gathering such data. Unfortunately, current surveys tend to be slow and expensive, and hence also tend to gather insufficient quantities of data. In this work we describe three general methods for improving the use of survey resources by performing data collection with mobile devices and by directing survey progress through the application of AI techniques. First, we describe a spatial disease density model based on Gaussian process ordinal regression, which offers a better representation of the disease level distribution, as compared to the statistical approaches typically applied. Second, we show how this model can be used to dynamically route survey teams to obtain the most valuable survey possible given a fixed budget. Third, we demonstrate that the diagnosis of plant disease can be automated using images taken by a camera phone, enabling data collection by survey workers with only basic training. We have applied our methods to the specific challenge of viral cassava disease monitoring in Uganda, for which we have implemented a real-time mobile survey system that will soon see practical use.

In order to better protect and conserve biodiversity, ecologists use machine learning and statistics to understand how species respond to their environment and to predict how they will respond to future climate change, habitat loss and other threats. A fundamental modeling task is to estimate the probability that a given species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables such as precipitation and temperature. For a limited number of species, survey data consisting of both presence and absence records are available, and can be used to fit a variety of conventional classification and regression models. For most species, however, the available data consist only of occurrence records --- locations where the species has been observed. In two closely-related but separate bodies of ecological literature, diverse special-purpose models have been developed that contrast occurrence data with a random sample of available environmental conditions. The most widespread statistical approaches involve either fitting an exponential model of species' conditional probability of presence, or fitting a naive logistic model in which the random sample of available conditions is treated as absence data; both approaches have well-known drawbacks, and do not necessarily produce valid probabilities. After summarizing existing methods, we overcome their drawbacks by introducing a new scaled binomial loss function for estimating an underlying logistic model of species presence/absence. Like the Expectation-Maximization approach of Ward et al. and the method of Steinberg and Cardell, our approach requires an estimate of population prevalence, $\Pr(y=1)$, since prevalence is not identifiable from occurrence data alone. In contrast to the latter two methods, our loss function is straightforward to integrate into a variety of existing modeling frameworks such as generalized linear and additive models and boosted regression trees. We also demonstrate that approaches by Lele and Keim and by Lancaster and Imbens that surmount the identifiability issue by making parametric data assumptions do not typically produce valid probability estimates.

Sustainable resource management in many domains presents large continuous stochastic optimization problems, which can often be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). To solve such large MDPs, we identify and leverage linearity in state and action sets that is common in resource management. In particular, we introduce linear dynamic programs (LDPs) that generalize resource management problems and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs). We show that the LDP framework makes it possible to adapt point-based methods--the state of the art in solving POMDPs--to solving LDPs. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach in managing the water level of a river reservoir. Finally, we discuss the relationship with dual dynamic programming, a method used to optimize hydroelectric systems.

A challenge to modeling and monitoring the health of the ocean environment is that it is largely under sensed and difficult to sense remotely. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) can improve observability, for example of algal bloom regions, ocean acidification, and ocean circulation. This AUV paradigm, however, requires robust operation that is cost effective and responsive to the environment. To achieve low cost we generate operational sequences automatically from science goals, and achieve robustness by reasoning about the discrete and continuous effects of actions. We introduce Kongming2, a generative planner for hybrid systems with temporally extended goals (TEGs) and temporally flexible actions. It takes as input high level goals and outputs trajectories and actions of the hybrid system, for example an AUV. Kongming2 makes two major extensions to Kongming1: planning for TEGs, and planning with temporally flexible actions. We demonstrated a proof of concept of the planner in the Atlantic ocean on Odyssey IV, an AUV designed and built by the MIT AUV Lab at Sea Grant.

The conservation of wildlife corridors between existing habitat preserves is important for combating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation facing species of concern. We introduce the Steiner Multigraph Problem to model the problem of minimum-cost wildlife corridor design for multiple species with different landscape requirements. This problem can also model other analogous settings in wireless and social networks. As a generalization of Steiner forest, the goal is to find a minimum-cost subgraph that connects multiple sets of terminals. In contrast to Steiner forest, each set of terminals can only be connected via a subset of the nodes. Generalizing Steiner forest in this way makes the problem NP-hard even when restricted to two pairs of terminals. However, we show that if the node subsets have a nested structure, the problem admits a fixed-parameter tractable algorithm in the number of terminals. We successfully test exact and heuristic solution approaches on a wildlife corridor instance for wolverines and lynx in western Montana, showing that though the problem is computationally hard, heuristics perform well, and provably optimal solutions can still be obtained.

In this paper we present a data-driven approach to modeling end user energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings. Our model is based upon a data set of monthly electricity and gas bills, collected by a utility over the course of several years, for approximately 6,500 buildings in Cambridge, MA. In addition, we use publicly available tax assessor records and geographical survey information to determine corresponding features for the buildings. Using both parametric and non-parametric learning methods, we learn models that predict distributions over energy usage based upon these features, and use these models to develop two end-user systems. For utilities or authorized institutions (those who may obtain access to the full data) we provide a system that visualizes energy consumption for each building in the city; this allows companies to quickly identify outliers (buildings which use much more energy than expected even after conditioning on the relevant predictors), for instance allowing them to target homes for potential retrofits or tiered pricing schemes. For other end users, we provide an interface for entering their own electricity and gas usage, along with basic information about their home, to determine how their consumption compares to that of similar buildings as predicted by our model. Merely allowing users to contextualize their consumption in this way, relating it to the consumption in similar buildings, can itself produce behavior changes to significantly reduce consumption.