By far the most common way to estimate an expected loss in machine learning is to draw samples, compute the loss on each one, and take the empirical average. However, sampling is not necessarily optimal. Given an MLP at initialization, we show how to estimate its expected output over Gaussian inputs without running samples through the network at all. Instead, we produce approximate representations of the distributions of activations at each layer, leveraging tools such as cumulants and Hermite expansions. We show both theoretically and empirically that for sufficiently wide networks, our estimator achieves a target mean squared error using substantially fewer FLOPs than Monte Carlo sampling. We find moreover that our methods perform particularly well at estimating the probabilities of rare events, and additionally demonstrate how they can be used for model training. Together, these findings suggest a path to producing models with a greatly reduced probability of catastrophic tail risks.

Deep generative models provide flexible frameworks for modeling complex, structured data such as images, videos, 3D objects, and texts. However, when applied to sequences of human skeletons, standard variational autoencoders (VAEs) often allocate substantial capacity to nuisance factors-such as camera orientation, subject scale, viewpoint, and execution speed-rather than the intrinsic geometry of shapes and their motion. We propose the Elastic Shape - Variational Autoencoder (ES-VAE), a geometry-aware generative model for skeletal trajectories that leverages the transported square-root velocity field (TSRVF) representation on Kendall's shape manifold. This representation inherently removes rigid translations, rotations, and global scaling of shapes, and temporal rate variability of sequences, isolating the underlying shape dynamics. The ES-VAE encoder maps skeletal sequences to a low-dimensional latent space incorporating the Riemannian logarithm map, while the decoder reconstructs sequences using the corresponding exponential map. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ES-VAE on two datasets. First, we analyze skeletal gait cycles to predict clinical mobility scores and classify subjects into healthy and post-stroke groups. Second, we evaluate action recognition on the NTU RGB+D dataset. Across both settings, ES-VAE consistently outperforms standard VAEs and a range of sequence modeling baselines, including temporal convolutional networks, transformers, and graph convolutional networks. More broadly, ES-VAE provides a principled framework for learning generative models of longitudinal data on pose shape manifolds, offering improved latent representation and downstream performance compared to existing deep learning approaches.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the value of a target treatment policy (e.g., a recommender system) using data collected by a different logging policy. It enables high-stakes experimentation without live deployment, yet in practice accuracy depends heavily on the logging policy used to collect data for computing the estimate. We study how to design logging policies that minimize OPE error for given target policies. We characterize a fundamental reward-coverage tradeoff: concentrating probability mass on high-reward actions reduces variance but risks missing signal on actions the target policy may take. We propose a unifying framework for logging policy design and derive optimal policies in canonical informational regimes where the target policy and reward distribution are (i) known, (ii) unknown, and (iii) partially known through priors or noisy estimates at logging time. Our results provide actionable guidance for firms choosing among multiple candidate recommendation systems. We demonstrate the importance of treatment selection when gathering data for OPE, and describe theoretically optimal approaches when this is a firm's primary objective. We also distill practical design principles for selecting logging policies when operational constraints prevent implementing the theoretical optimum.

This paper investigates the critical role of eigenalignments between the kernel matrix and learning targets in achieving robust generalization in learning problems. We establish a direct connection between generalization performance in kernel methods and the estimation of eigenvectors and eigenvalues of matrices, offering a more intuitive understanding compared to prior work with minimal assumptions. We also show that, since the prediction task in KRR is essentially the weighted sum of eigenvectors/singular vectors, by analyzing how much error can be caused by perturbations to the kernel matrix, we can then derive a bound on this generalization error using the estimation stability of matrix eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Compared with previous work, our analysis concentrates on finite-sample settings and on the generalization error arising from having a suboptimal finite training set. Our findings reveal that in kernel methods, as long as the kernel is of high rank, the near-zero reconstruction error can be trivially obtained, implying that the reconstruction error will have limited predictive power for generalization. Finally, we establish a generalization bound from an eigenvalues/eigenvectors estimation perspective, showing that strong generalization requires increasing eigenvector alignment, eigenvalue magnitude, or gaps between consecutive eigenvalues.

Data augmentation is widely recognized for improving generalization in deep networks, yet its impact on the geometry of learned representations remains poorly understood. In this work, we characterize how different data augmentation strategies reshape internal representations in neural networks. Using tools from shape analysis, we embed network hidden representations into a metric space where distance is invariant to scaling, translation, rotation and reflection. We show that increasing augmentation strength leads to well-behaved trajectories in this space, and that different augmentation types steer representations in distinct directions. Moreover, we investigate how neural representation shapes are distorted along data augmentation trajectories, and show that insights from neural geometry can predict which representations provide the most improvement when ensembling models. Our results reveal shared geometric patterns across architectures and seeds, and suggest that analyzing shape-space trajectories offers a principled tool for understanding and comparing data augmentation methods.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models rely on balanced expert utilization to fully realize their scalability. However, existing load-balancing methods are largely heuristic and operate on noisy mini-batch assignment statistics, introducing bias relative to population-level objectives. We propose $ϕ$-balancing, a principled framework that directly targets population-level expert balance by minimizing a strictly convex, symmetric, and differentiable potential of the expected routing distribution. Using convex duality, we derive an equivalent min-max formulation and obtain a simple online algorithm via mirror descent, yielding an efficient EMA-based routing adjustment with negligible overhead. Across large-scale pretraining and downstream fine-tuning, $ϕ$-balancing consistently outperforms prior Switch-style and loss-free baselines, demonstrating more stable and effective expert utilization.

We study contextual dynamic pricing in a semiparametric scalar-index valuation model where the latent value is $v_t=μ_\ast(\mathsf c_t)+ξ_t$, with an unknown utility map $μ_\ast$ and an unknown additive noise distribution. The key decision object is the one-dimensional oracle price map $u\mapsto p^\ast(u)$ induced by the scalar index $u=μ_\ast(\mathsf c)$ and the noise tail. Under the $β$-Hölder smoothness of the tail function for $β\geq 2$ and a revenue-geometry condition that gives a unique, stable, interior maximizer, this oracle map is itself $(β-1)$-smooth. We exploit such structure through $\mathsf{ORBIT}$, a modular coarse-to-fine policy that takes a scalar pilot index as input, localizes a benchmark price in each active bin, and learns a local polynomial approximation of the oracle map inside a trust region via bandit convex optimization. For the baseline linear utility model $μ_\ast(\mathsf c)=\mathsf c^\topθ_\ast$, an adaptive elliptical exploration scheme constructs the required scalar pilot online without distributional assumptions on the contexts. The resulting policy achieves regret $\widetilde{O}\big(T^{\frac{2β-1}{4β-3}}+\sqrt{dT}\big)$. For fixed $d$, we establish a matching lower bound in the horizon dependence, unveiling that the nonparametric oracle-map learning term is minimax sharp. The same scalar-pilot interface also yields extensions to sparse high-dimensional linear utility and nonparametric Hölder utility.

Subgroup analyses within randomized controlled trials are often underpowered due to limited sample sizes. We address this challenge by leveraging trial participants outside the subgroup of interest to augment estimation within the subgroup. Specifically, we study two Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators (TMLEs) that borrow information from non-subgroup participants within the same trial: a TMLE with pooled regression (TMLE-PR) and an Adaptive Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (A-TMLE). Both estimators enable information sharing without relying on any external real-world data, thereby capitalizing on key strengths of the trial: most importantly, the protection against bias afforded by the randomized treatment, but also harmonized data collection, and consistent treatment and outcome definitions. The general strategy proposed here directly advances the priorities of key regulatory agencies, including the FDA, by improving the precision of subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates without introducing external sources of bias, thereby facilitating rigorous inference to support equitable labeling, access, and post-market evaluation. In a case study based on analysis of data from a cardiovascular outcome trial (LEADER, NCT01179048), we estimate the risk reduction of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) under liraglutide treatment among Black and Asian subgroups -- each comprising less than 10\% of the trial population -- using the proposed estimators that borrow information from the remainder of the trial. Using A-TMLE, in particular, we find estimated absolute MACE risk reductions of 1.6, 1.5, and 1.5 percentage points among Asian participants and 2.1, 2.0, and 2.1 percentage points among Black participants at 365, 540, and 730 days, respectively, with 95\% confidence intervals excluding the null at each time point.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).