Many real-world decision-theoretic planning problems can be naturally modeled with discrete and continuous state Markov decision processes (DC-MDPs). While previous work has addressed automated decision-theoretic planning for DCMDPs, optimal solutions have only been defined so far for limited settings, e.g., DC-MDPs having hyper-rectangular piecewise linear value functions. In this work, we extend symbolic dynamic programming (SDP) techniques to provide optimal solutions for a vastly expanded class of DCMDPs. To address the inherent combinatorial aspects of SDP, we introduce the XADD - a continuous variable extension of the algebraic decision diagram (ADD) - that maintains compact representations of the exact value function. Empirically, we demonstrate an implementation of SDP with XADDs on various DC-MDPs, showing the first optimal automated solutions to DCMDPs with linear and nonlinear piecewise partitioned value functions and showing the advantages of constraint-based pruning for XADDs.

Computing maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in graphical models is an important inference problem with many applications. We present message-passing algorithms for quadratic programming (QP) formulations of MAP estimation for pairwise Markov random fields. In particular, we use the concave-convex procedure (CCCP) to obtain a locally optimal algorithm for the non-convex QP formulation. A similar technique is used to derive a globally convergent algorithm for the convex QP relaxation of MAP. We also show that a recently developed expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for the QP formulation of MAP can be derived from the CCCP perspective. Experiments on synthetic and real-world problems confirm that our new approach is competitive with max-product and its variations. Compared with CPLEX, we achieve more than an order-of-magnitude speedup in solving optimally the convex QP relaxation.

Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. Several classical probabilistic inference tasks (such as MAP and computing marginals) have not yet received a lot of attention for this formalism. The contribution of this paper is that we develop efficient inference algorithms for these tasks. This is based on a conversion of the probabilistic logic program and the query and evidence to a weighted CNF formula. This allows us to reduce the inference tasks to well-studied tasks such as weighted model counting. To solve such tasks, we employ state-of-the-art methods. We consider multiple methods for the conversion of the programs as well as for inference on the weighted CNF. The resulting approach is evaluated experimentally and shown to improve upon the state-of-the-art in probabilistic logic programming.

To deal with the prohibitive complexity of calculating policies in Decentralized MDPs, researchers have proposed models that exploit structured agent interactions. Settings where most agent actions are independent except for few actions that affect the transitions and/or rewards of other agents can be modeled using Event-Driven Interactions with Complex Rewards (EDI-CR). Finding the optimal joint policy can be formulated as an optimization problem. However, existing formulations are too verbose and/or lack optimality guarantees. We propose a compact Mixed Integer Linear Program formulation of EDI-CR instances. The key insight is that most action sequences of a group of agents have the same effect on a given agent. This allows us to treat these sequences similarly and use fewer variables. Experiments show that our formulation is more compact and leads to faster solution times and better solutions than existing formulations.

Inference in graphical models consists of repeatedly multiplying and summing out potentials. It is generally intractable because the derived potentials obtained in this way can be exponentially large. Approximate inference techniques such as belief propagation and variational methods combat this by simplifying the derived potentials, typically by dropping variables from them. We propose an alternate method for simplifying potentials: quantizing their values. Quantization causes different states of a potential to have the same value, and therefore introduces context-specific independencies that can be exploited to represent the potential more compactly. We use algebraic decision diagrams (ADDs) to do this efficiently. We apply quantization and ADD reduction to variable elimination and junction tree propagation, yielding a family of bounded approximate inference schemes. Our experimental tests show that our new schemes significantly outperform state-of-the-art approaches on many benchmark instances.

The key limiting factor in graphical model inference and learning is the complexity of the partition function. We thus ask the question: what are general conditions under which the partition function is tractable? The answer leads to a new kind of deep architecture, which we call sum-product networks (SPNs). SPNs are directed acyclic graphs with variables as leaves, sums and products as internal nodes, and weighted edges. We show that if an SPN is complete and consistent it represents the partition function and all marginals of some graphical model, and give semantics to its nodes. Essentially all tractable graphical models can be cast as SPNs, but SPNs are also strictly more general. We then propose learning algorithms for SPNs, based on backpropagation and EM. Experiments show that inference and learning with SPNs can be both faster and more accurate than with standard deep networks. For example, SPNs perform image completion better than state-of-the-art deep networks for this task. SPNs also have intriguing potential connections to the architecture of the cortex.

To overcome the #P-hardness of computing/updating prices in logarithm market scoring rule-based (LMSR-based) combinatorial prediction markets, Chen et al. [5] recently used a simple Bayesian network to represent the prices of securities in combinatorial predictionmarkets for tournaments, and showed that two types of popular securities are structure preserving. In this paper, we significantly extend this idea by employing Bayesian networks in general combinatorial prediction markets. We reveal a very natural connection between LMSR-based combinatorial prediction markets and probabilistic belief aggregation,which leads to a complete characterization of all structure preserving securities for decomposable network structures. Notably, the main results by Chen et al. [5] are corollaries of our characterization. We then prove that in order for a very basic set of securities to be structure preserving, the graph of the Bayesian network must be decomposable. We also discuss some approximation techniques for securities that are not structure preserving.

Identifying and controlling bias is a key problem in empirical sciences. Causal diagram theory provides graphical criteria for deciding whether and how causal effects can be identified from observed (nonexperimental) data by covariate adjustment. Here we prove equivalences between existing as well as new criteria for adjustment and we provide a new simplified but still equivalent notion of d-separation. These lead to efficient algorithms for two important tasks in causal diagram analysis: (1) listing minimal covariate adjustments (with polynomial delay); and (2) identifying the subdiagram involved in biasing paths (in linear time). Our results improve upon existing exponential-time solutions for these problems, enabling users to assess the effects of covariate adjustment on diagrams with tens to hundreds of variables interactively in real time.

Traditional economic models typically treat private information, or signals, as generated from some underlying state. Recent work has explicated alternative models, where signals correspond to interpretations of available information. We show that the difference between these formulations can be sharply cast in terms of causal dependence structure, and employ graphical models to illustrate the distinguishing characteristics. The graphical representation supports inferences about signal patterns in the interpreted framework, and suggests how results based on the generated model can be extended to more general situations. Specific insights about bidding games in classical auction mechanisms derive from qualitative graphical models.

Potential games and decentralised partially observable MDPs (Dec-POMDPs) are two commonly used models of multi-agent interaction, for static optimisation and sequential decisionmaking settings, respectively. In this paper we introduce filtered fictitious play for solving repeated potential games in which each player's observations of others' actions are perturbed by random noise, and use this algorithm to construct an online learning method for solving Dec-POMDPs. Specifically, we prove that noise in observations prevents standard fictitious play from converging to Nash equilibrium in potential games, which also makes fictitious play impractical for solving Dec-POMDPs. To combat this, we derive filtered fictitious play, and provide conditions under which it converges to a Nash equilibrium in potential games with noisy observations. We then use filtered fictitious play to construct a solver for Dec-POMDPs, and demonstrate our new algorithm's performance in a box pushing problem. Our results show that we consistently outperform the state-of-the-art Dec-POMDP solver by an average of 100% across the range of noise in the observation function.