We propose a definition of causality for time series in terms of the effect of an intervention in one component of a multivariate time series on another component at some later point in time. Conditions for identifiability, comparable to the back-door and front-door criteria, are presented and can also be verified graphically. Computation of the causal effect is derived and illustrated for the linear case.

Choquet expected utility (CEU) is one of the most sophisticated decision criteria used in decision theory under uncertainty. It provides a generalisation of expected utility enhancing both descriptive and prescriptive possibilities. In this paper, we investigate the use of CEU for path-planning under uncertainty with a special focus on robust solutions. We first recall the main features of the CEU model and introduce some examples showing its descriptive potential. Then we focus on the search for Choquet-optimal paths in multivalued implicit graphs where costs depend on different scenarios. After discussing complexity issues, we propose two different heuristic search algorithms to solve the problem. Finally, numerical experiments are reported, showing the practical efficiency of the proposed algorithms.

Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on probability of evidence but does not have any guarantees in terms of relative or absolute error. Our proposed approximation is a randomized importance sampling scheme that uses the Markov inequality. However, a straight-forward application of the Markov inequality may lead to poor lower bounds. We therefore propose several heuristic measures to improve its performance in practice. Empirical evaluation of our scheme with state-of- the-art lower bounding schemes reveals the promise of our approach.

Ranking objects is a simple and natural procedure for organizing data. It is often performed by assigning a quality score to each object according to its relevance to the problem at hand. Ranking is widely used for object selection, when resources are limited and it is necessary to select a subset of most relevant objects for further processing. In real world situations, the object's scores are often calculated from noisy measurements, casting doubt on the ranking reliability. We introduce an analytical method for assessing the influence of noise levels on the ranking reliability. We use two similarity measures for reliability evaluation, Top-K-List overlap and Kendall's tau measure, and show that the former is much more sensitive to noise than the latter. We apply our method to gene selection in a series of microarray experiments of several cancer types. The results indicate that the reliability of the lists obtained from these experiments is very poor, and that experiment sizes which are necessary for attaining reasonably stable Top-K-Lists are much larger than those currently available. Simulations support our analytical results.

We present a functional framework for automated mechanism design based on a two-stage game model of strategic interaction between the designer and the mechanism participants, and apply it to several classes of two-player infinite games of incomplete information. At the core of our framework is a black-box optimization algorithm which guides the selection process of candidate mechanisms. Our approach yields optimal or nearly optimal mechanisms in several application domains using various objective functions. By comparing our results with known optimal mechanisms, and in some cases improving on the best known mechanisms, we provide evidence that ours is a promising approach to parametric design of indirect mechanisms.

We formulate in this paper the mini-bucket algorithm for approximate inference in terms of exact inference on an approximate model produced by splitting nodes in a Bayesian network. The new formulation leads to a number of theoretical and practical implications. First, we show that branchand- bound search algorithms that use minibucket bounds may operate in a drastically reduced search space. Second, we show that the proposed formulation inspires new minibucket heuristics and allows us to analyze existing heuristics from a new perspective. Finally, we show that this new formulation allows mini-bucket approximations to benefit from recent advances in exact inference, allowing one to significantly increase the reach of these approximations.

Although a number of related algorithms have been developed to evaluate influence diagrams, exploiting the conditional independence in the diagram, the exact solution has remained intractable for many important problems. In this paper we introduce decision circuits as a means to exploit the local structure usually found in decision problems and to improve the performance of influence diagram analysis. This work builds on the probabilistic inference algorithms using arithmetic circuits to represent Bayesian belief networks [Darwiche, 2003]. Once compiled, these arithmetic circuits efficiently evaluate probabilistic queries on the belief network, and methods have been developed to exploit both the global and local structure of the network. We show that decision circuits can be constructed in a similar fashion and promise similar benefits.

Combining first-order logic and probability has long been a goal of AI. Markov logic (Richardson & Domingos, 2006) accomplishes this by attaching weights to first-order formulas and viewing them as templates for features of Markov networks. Unfortunately, it does not have the full power of first-order logic, because it is only defined for finite domains. This paper extends Markov logic to infinite domains, by casting it in the framework of Gibbs measures (Georgii, 1988). We show that a Markov logic network (MLN) admits a Gibbs measure as long as each ground atom has a finite number of neighbors. Many interesting cases fall in this category. We also show that an MLN admits a unique measure if the weights of its non-unit clauses are small enough. We then examine the structure of the set of consistent measures in the non-unique case. Many important phenomena, including systems with phase transitions, are represented by MLNs with non-unique measures. We relate the problem of satisfiability in first-order logic to the properties of MLN measures, and discuss how Markov logic relates to previous infinite models.

We use the implicitization procedure to generate polynomial equality constraints on the set of distributions induced by local interventions on variables governed by a causal Bayesian network with hidden variables. We show how we may reduce the complexity of the implicitization problem and make the problem tractable in certain causal Bayesian networks. We also show some preliminary results on the algebraic structure of polynomial constraints. The results have applications in distinguishing between causal models and in testing causal models with combined observational and experimental data.

The paper evaluates the power of best-first search over AND/OR search spaces for solving the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) task in Bayesian networks. The main virtue of the AND/OR representation of the search space is its sensitivity to the structure of the problem, which can translate into significant time savings. In recent years depth-first AND/OR Branch-and- Bound algorithms were shown to be very effective when exploring such search spaces, especially when using caching. Since best-first strategies are known to be superior to depth-first when memory is utilized, exploring the best-first control strategy is called for. The main contribution of this paper is in showing that a recent extension of AND/OR search algorithms from depth-first Branch-and-Bound to best-first is indeed very effective for computing the MPE in Bayesian networks. We demonstrate empirically the superiority of the best-first search approach on various probabilistic networks.