Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some learned mean values, can achieve the unbelievable marginals.

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) setting is a useful abstraction of many online learning tasks which focuses on the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. In this setting, an online algorithm has a fixed set of alternatives ("arms"), and in each round it selects one arm and then observes the corresponding reward. While the case of small number of arms is by now well-understood, a lot of recent work has focused on multi-armed bandits with (infinitely) many arms, where one needs to assume extra structure in order to make the problem tractable. In particular, in the Lipschitz MAB problem there is an underlying similarity metric space, known to the algorithm, such that any two arms that are close in this metric space have similar payoffs. In this paper we consider the more realistic scenario in which the metric space is *implicit* -- it is defined by the available structure but not revealed to the algorithm directly. Specifically, we assume that an algorithm is given a tree-based classification of arms. For any given problem instance such a classification implicitly defines a similarity metric space, but the numerical similarity information is not available to the algorithm. We provide an algorithm for this setting, whose performance guarantees (almost) match the best known guarantees for the corresponding instance of the Lipschitz MAB problem.

We show an application of a tree structure for approximate inference in graphical models using the expectation propagation algorithm. These approximations are typically used over graphs with short-range cycles. We demonstrate that these approximations also help in sparse graphs with long-range loops, as the ones used in coding theory to approach channel capacity. For asymptotically large sparse graph, the expectation propagation algorithm together with the tree structure yields a completely disconnected approximation to the graphical model but, for for finite-length practical sparse graphs, the tree structure approximation to the code graph provides accurate estimates for the marginal of each variable. Furthermore, we propose a new method for constructing the tree structure on the fly that might be more amenable for sparse graphs with general factors.

Recently, Mahoney and Orecchia demonstrated that popular diffusion-based procedures to compute a quick approximation to the first nontrivial eigenvector of a data graph Laplacian exactly solve certain regularized Semi-Definite Programs (SDPs). In this paper, we extend that result by providing a statistical interpretation of their approximation procedure. Our interpretation will be analogous to the manner in which l2-regularized or l1-regularized l2 regression (often called Ridge regression and Lasso regression, respectively) can be interpreted in terms of a Gaussian prior or a Laplace prior, respectively, on the coefficient vector of the regression problem. Our framework will imply that the solutions to the Mahoney-Orecchia regularized SDP can be interpreted as regularized estimates of the pseudoinverse of the graph Laplacian. Conversely, it will imply that the solution to this regularized estimation problem can be computed very quickly by running, e.g., the fast diffusion-based PageRank procedure for computing an approximation to the first nontrivial eigenvector of the graph Laplacian. Empirical results are also provided to illustrate the manner in which approximate eigenvector computation implicitly performs statistical regularization, relative to running the corresponding exact algorithm.

Crowdsourcing systems, in which tasks are electronically distributed to numerous ``information piece-workers'', have emerged as an effective paradigm for human-powered solving of large scale problems in domains such as image classification, data entry, optical character recognition, recommendation, and proofreading. Because these low-paid workers can be unreliable, nearly all crowdsourcers must devise schemes to increase confidence in their answers, typically by assigning each task multiple times and combining the answers in some way such as majority voting. In this paper, we consider a general model of such rowdsourcing tasks, and pose the problem of minimizing the total price (i.e., number of task assignments) that must be paid to achieve a target overall reliability. We give new algorithms for deciding which tasks to assign to which workers and for inferring correct answers from the workers’ answers. We show that our algorithm significantly outperforms majority voting and, in fact, are asymptotically optimal through comparison to an oracle that knows the reliability of every worker.

Learning theory has largely focused on two main learning scenarios: the classical statistical setting where instances are drawn i.i.d. from a fixed distribution, and the adversarial scenario whereby at every time step the worst instance is revealed to the player. It can be argued that in the real world neither of these assumptions is reasonable. We define the minimax value of a game where the adversary is restricted in his moves, capturing stochastic and non-stochastic assumptions on data. Building on the sequential symmetrization approach, we define a notion of distribution-dependent Rademacher complexity for the spectrum of problems ranging from i.i.d. to worst-case. The bounds let us immediately deduce variation-type bounds. We study a smoothed online learning scenario and show that exponentially small amount of noise can make function classes with infinite Littlestone dimension learnable.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has proven to be a powerful, generic planning technique for decision-making in single-agent and adversarial environments. The stochastic nature of the Monte-Carlo simulations introduces errors in the value estimates, both in terms of bias and variance. Whilst reducing bias (typically through the addition of domain knowledge) has been studied in the MCTS literature, comparatively little effort has focused on reducing variance. This is somewhat surprising, since variance reduction techniques are a well-studied area in classical statistics. In this paper, we examine the application of some standard techniques for variance reduction in MCTS, including common random numbers, antithetic variates and control variates. We demonstrate how these techniques can be applied to MCTS and explore their efficacy on three different stochastic, single-agent settings: Pig, Can't Stop and Dominion.

Clustering is a popular problem with many applications. We consider the k-means problem in the situation where the data is too large to be stored in main memory and must be accessed sequentially, such as from a disk, and where we must use as little memory as possible. Our algorithm is based on recent theoretical results, with significant improvements to make it practical. Our approach greatly simplifies a recently developed algorithm, both in design and in analysis, and eliminates large constant factors in the approximation guarantee, the memory requirements, and the running time. We then incorporate approximate nearest neighbor search to compute k-means in o( nk) (where n is the number of data points; note that computing the cost, given a solution, takes 8(nk) time). We show that our algorithm compares favorably to existing algorithms - both theoretically and experimentally, thus providing state-of-the-art performance in both theory and practice.

Psychologists have recently begun to develop computational accounts of how people infer others' preferences from their behavior. The inverse decision-making approach proposes that people infer preferences by inverting a generative model of decision-making. Existing data sets, however, do not provide sufficient resolution to thoroughly evaluate this approach. We introduce a new preference learning task that provides a benchmark for evaluating computational accounts and use it to compare the inverse decision-making approach to a feature-based approach, which relies on a discriminative combination of decision features. Our data support the inverse decision-making approach to preference learning.

Learning problems such as logistic regression are typically formulated as pure optimization problems defined on some loss function. We argue that this view ignores the fact that the loss function depends on stochastically generated data which in turn determines an intrinsic scale of precision for statistical estimation. By considering the statistical properties of the update variables used during the optimization (e.g. gradients), we can construct frequentist hypothesis tests to determine the reliability of these updates. We utilize subsets of the data for computing updates, and use the hypothesis tests for determining when the batch-size needs to be increased. This provides computational benefits and avoids overfitting by stopping when the batch-size has become equal to size of the full dataset. Moreover, the proposed algorithms depend on a single interpretable parameter – the probability for an update to be in the wrong direction – which is set to a single value across all algorithms and datasets. In this paper, we illustrate these ideas on three L1 regularized coordinate algorithms: L1 -regularized L2 -loss SVMs, L1 -regularized logistic regression, and the Lasso, but we emphasize that the underlying methods are much more generally applicable.