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A Distributed Approach to Summarizing Spaces of Multiagent Schedules
Jr., James Calvin Boerkoel (University of Michigan) | Durfee, Edmund H. (University of Michigan)
We introduce the Multiagent Disjunctive Temporal Problem (MaDTP), a new distributed formulation of the widely-adopted Disjunctive Temporal Problem (DTP) representation. An agent that generates a summary of all viable schedules, rather than a single schedule, can be more useful in dynamic environments. We show how a (Ma)DTP with the properties of minimality and decomposability provides a particularly efficacious solution space summary.However, in the multiagent case, these properties sacrifice an agent's strategic interests while incurring significant computational overhead. We introduce a new property called local decomposability that exploits loose-coupling between agents' problems, protects strategic interests, and supports typical queries. We provide and evaluate a new distributed algorithm that summarizes agents' solution spaces in significantly less time and space by using local, rather than full, decomposability.
POMDPs Make Better Hackers: Accounting for Uncertainty in Penetration Testing
Sarraute, Carlos (Core Security and ITBA) | Buffet, Olivier (INRIA and Université de Lorraine) | Hoffmann, Jörg (Saarland University)
Penetration Testing is a methodology for assessing network security, by generating and executing possible hacking attacks. Doing so automatically allows for regular and systematic testing. A key question is how to generate the attacks. This is naturally formulated as planning under uncertainty, i.e., under incomplete knowledge about the network configuration. Previous work uses classical planning, and requires costly pre-processes reducing this uncertainty by extensive application of scanning methods. By contrast, we herein model the attack planning problem in terms of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). This allows to reason about the knowledge available, and to intelligently employ scanning actions as part of the attack. As one would expect, this accurate solution does not scale. We devise a method that relies on POMDPs to find good attacks on individual machines, which are then composed into an attack on the network as a whole. This decomposition exploits network structure to the extent possible, making targeted approximations (only) where needed. Evaluating this method on a suitably adapted industrial test suite, we demonstrate its effectiveness in both runtime and solution quality.
Fine-Grained Photovoltaic Output Prediction Using a Bayesian Ensemble
Chakraborty, Prithwish (Virginia Tech) | Marwah, Manish (HP Labs) | Arlitt, Martin (HP Labs) | Ramakrishnan, Naren ( Virginia Tech )
Local and distributed power generation is increasingly relianton renewable power sources, e.g., solar (photovoltaic or PV) andwind energy. The integration of such sources into the power grid ischallenging, however, due to their variable and intermittent energyoutput. To effectively use them on alarge scale, it is essential to be able to predict power generation at afine-grained level. We describe a novel Bayesian ensemble methodologyinvolving three diverse predictors. Each predictor estimates mixingcoefficients for integrating PV generation output profiles but capturesfundamentally different characteristics. Two of them employ classicalparameterized (naive Bayes) and non-parametric (nearest neighbor) methods tomodel the relationship between weather forecasts and PV output. The thirdpredictor captures the sequentiality implicit in PV generation and uses motifsmined from historical data to estimate the most likely mixture weights usinga stream prediction methodology. We demonstrate the success and superiority of ourmethods on real PV data from two locations that exhibit diverse weatherconditions. Predictions from our model can be harnessed to optimize schedulingof delay tolerant workloads, e.g., in a data center.
Cooperative Virtual Power Plant Formation Using Scoring Rules
Robu, Valentin (University of Southampton) | Kota, Ramachandra (Secure Meters Ltd., Winchester) | Chalkiadakis, Georgios (Technical University of Crete) | Rogers, Alex (University of Southampton) | Jennings, Nicholas R. (University of Southampton)
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are fast emerging as a suitable means of integrating small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind and solar, into the electricity supply network (Grid). VPPs are formed via the aggregation of a large number of such DERs, so that they exhibit the characteristics of a traditional generator in terms of predictability and robustness. In this work, we promote the formation of such "cooperative'' VPPs (CVPPs) using multi-agent technology. In particular, we design a payment mechanism that encourages DERs to join CVPPs with large overall production. Our method is based on strictly proper scoring rules and incentivises the provision of accurate predictions from the CVPPs---and in turn, the member DERs---which aids in the planning of the supply schedule at the Grid. We empirically evaluate our approach using the real-world setting of 16 commercial wind farms in the UK. We show that our mechanism incentivises real DERs to form CVPPs, and outperforms the current state of the art payment mechanism developed for this problem.
Towards a Cognitive System that Can Recognize Spatial Regions Based on Context
Hawes, Nick (University of Birmingham) | Klenk, Matthew (Palo Alto Research Center) | Lockwood, Kate (California State University, Monterey Bay) | Horn, Graham S. (University of Birmingham) | Kelleher, John D (Dublin Institute of Technology)
In order to collaborate with people in the real world, cognitive systems must be able to represent and reason about spatial regions in human environments. Consider the command "go to the front of the classroom". The spatial region mentioned (the front of the classroom) is not perceivable using geometry alone. Instead it is defined by its functional use, implied by nearby objects and their configuration. In this paper, we define such areas as context-dependent spatial regions and present a cognitive system able to learn them by combining qualitative spatial representations, semantic labels, and analogy. The system is capable of generating a collection of qualitative spatial representations describing the configuration of the entities it perceives in the world. It can then be taught context-dependent spatial regions using anchor pointsdefined on these representations. From this we then demonstrate how an existing computational model of analogy can be used to detect context-dependent spatial regions in previously unseen rooms. To evaluate this process we compare detected regions to annotations made on maps of real rooms by human volunteers.
A Complexity-of-Strategic-Behavior Comparison between Schulze's Rule and Ranked Pairs
Parkes, David C. (Harvard University) | Xia, Lirong (Harvard University)
Schulze's rule and ranked pairs are two Condorcet methods that both satisfy many natural axiomatic properties. Schulze's rule is used in the elections of many organizations, including the Wikimedia Foundation, the Pirate Party of Sweden and Germany, the Debian project, and the Gento Project. Both rules are immune to control by cloning alternatives, but little is otherwise known about their strategic robustness, including resistance to manipulation by one or more voters, control by adding or deleting alternatives, adding or deleting votes, and bribery. Considering computational barriers, we show that these types of strategic behavior are NP-hard for ranked pairs (both constructive, in making an alternative a winner, and destructive, in precluding an alternative from being a winner). Schulze's rule, in comparison, remains vulnerable at least to constructive manipulation by a single voter and destructive manipulation by a coalition. As the first such polynomial-time rule known to resist all such manipulations, and considering also the broad axiomatic support, ranked pairs seems worthwhile to consider for practical applications.
On Maxsum Fair Cake Divisions
Brams, Steven J. (New York University) | Feldman, Michal (Harvard University and Hebrew University) | Lai, John K. (Harvard University) | Morgenstern, Jamie (Carnegie Mellon University) | Procaccia, Ariel D. (Carnegie Mellon University)
We consider the problem of selecting fair divisions of a heterogeneous divisible good among a set of agents. Recent work (Cohler et al., AAAI 2011) focused on designing algorithms for computing maxsum—social welfare maximizing—allocations under the fairness notion of envy-freeness. Maxsum allocations can also be found under alternative notions such as equitability. In this paper, we examine the properties of these allocations. In particular, We provide conditions for when maxsum envy-free or equitable allocations are Pareto optimal and give examples where fairness with Pareto optimality is not possible. We also prove that maxsum envy-free allocations have weakly greater welfare than maxsum equitable allocations when agents have structured valuations, and we derive an approximate version of this inequality for general valuations.
Search Algorithms for m Best Solutions for Graphical Models
Dechter, Rina (University of California, Irvine) | Flerova, Natalia (University of California, Irvine) | Marinescu, Radu (IBM Research)
The paper focuses on finding the m best solutions to combinatorial optimization problems using Best-First or Branchand- Bound search. Specifically, we present m-A*, extending the well-known A* to the m-best task, and prove that all its desirable properties, including soundness, completeness and optimal efficiency, are maintained. Since Best-First algorithms have memory problems, we also extend the memoryefficient Depth-First Branch-and-Bound to the m-best task. We extend both algorithms to optimization tasks over graphical models (e.g., Weighted CSP and MPE in Bayesian networks), provide complexity analysis and an empirical evaluation. Our experiments with 5 variants of Best-First and Branch-and-Bound confirm that Best-First is largely superior when memory is available, but Branch-and-Bound is more robust, while both styles of search benefit greatly when the heuristic evaluation function has increased accuracy.
The Automated Vacuum Waste Collection Optimization Problem
Béjar, Ramón (Universitat de Lleida) | Fernández, César (Universitat de Lleida) | Mateu, Carles (Universitat de Lleida) | Manyà, Felip (IIIA-CSIC) | Sole-Mauri, Francina (RosRoca Envirotec) | Vidal, David (RosRoca Envirotec)
One of the most challenging problems on modern urban planning and one of the goals to be solved for smart city design is that of urban waste disposal. Given urban population growth, and that the amount of waste generated by each of us citizens is also growing, the total amount of waste to be collected and treated is growing dramatically (EPA 2011), becoming one sensitive issue for local governments. A modern technique for waste collection that is steadily being adopted is automated vacuum waste collection. This technology uses air suction on a closed network of underground pipes to move waste from the collection points to the processing station, reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as inconveniences to citizens (odors, noise, . . . ) and allowing better waste reuse and recycling. This technique is open to optimize energy consumption because moving huge amounts of waste by air impulsion requires a lot of electric power. The described problem challenge here is, precisely, that of organizing and scheduling waste collection to minimize the amount of energy per ton of collected waste in such a system via the use of Artificial Intelligence techniques. This kind of problems are an inviting opportunity to showcase the possibilities that AI for Computational Sustainability offers.