We address the problem of comparing the risks of two given predictive models - for instance, a baseline model and a challenger - as confidently as possible on a fixed labeling budget. This problem occurs whenever models cannot be compared on held-out training data, possibly because the training data are unavailable or do not reflect the desired test distribution. In this case, new test instances have to be drawn and labeled at a cost. We devise an active comparison method that selects instances according to an instrumental sampling distribution. We derive the sampling distribution that maximizes the power of a statistical test applied to the observed empirical risks, and thereby minimizes the likelihood of choosing the inferior model. Empirically, we investigate model selection problems on several classification and regression tasks and study the accuracy of the resulting p-values.

We study how to automatically select and adapt multiple abstractions or representations of the world to support model-based reinforcement learning. We address the challenges of transfer learning in heterogeneous environments with varying tasks. We present an efficient, online framework that, through a sequence of tasks, learns a set of relevant representations to be used in future tasks. Without pre-defined mapping strategies, we introduce a general approach to support transfer learning across different state spaces. We demonstrate the potential impact of our system through improved jumpstart and faster convergence to near optimum policy in two benchmark domains.

Users want natural language processing (NLP) systems to be both fast and accurate, but quality often comes at the cost of speed. The field has been manually exploring various speed-accuracy tradeoffs (for particular problems and datasets). We aim to explore this space automatically, focusing here on the case of agenda-based syntactic parsing \cite{kay-1986}. Unfortunately, off-the-shelf reinforcement learning techniques fail to learn good policies: the state space is simply too large to explore naively. An attempt to counteract this by applying imitation learning algorithms also fails: the ``teacher'' is far too good to successfully imitate with our inexpensive features. Moreover, it is not specifically tuned for the known reward function. We propose a hybrid reinforcement/apprenticeship learning algorithm that, even with only a few inexpensive features, can automatically learn weights that achieve competitive accuracies at significant improvements in speed over state-of-the-art baselines.

Probabilistic planning captures the uncertainty of plan execution by probabilistically modeling the effects of actions in the environment, and therefore the probability of reaching different states from a given state and action. In order to compute a solution for a probabilistic planning problem, planners need to manage the uncertainty associated with the different paths from the initial state to a goal state. Several approaches to manage uncertainty were proposed, e.g., consider all paths at once, perform determinization of actions, and sampling. In this paper, we introduce trajectory-based short-sighted Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (SSPs), a novel approach to manage uncertainty for probabilistic planning problems in which states reachable with low probability are substituted by artificial goals that heuristically estimate their cost to reach a goal state. We also extend the theoretical results of Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planner (SSiPP) [ref] by proving that SSiPP always finishes and is asymptotically optimal under sufficient conditions on the structure of short-sighted SSPs. We empirically compare SSiPP using trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs with the winners of the previous probabilistic planning competitions and other state-of-the-art planners in the triangle tireworld problems. Trajectory-based SSiPP outperforms all the competitors and is the only planner able to scale up to problem number 60, a problem in which the optimal solution contains approximately $10^{70}$ states.

A new result in convex analysis on the calculation of proximity operators in certain scalednorms is derived. We describe efficient implementations of the proximity calculationfor a useful class of functions; the implementations exploit the piece-wise linear nature of the dual problem. The second part of the paper applies the previous result to acceleration of convex minimization problems, and leads to an elegant quasi-Newton method. The optimization method compares favorably againststate-of-the-art alternatives. The algorithm has extensive applications including signal processing, sparse recovery and machine learning and classification.

We introduce a class of discrete divergences on sets (equivalently binary vectors) that we call the submodular-Bregman divergences. We consider two kinds, defined either from tight modular upper or tight modular lower bounds of a submodular function. We show that the properties of these divergences are analogous to the (standard continuous) Bregman divergence. We demonstrate how they generalize many useful divergences, including the weighted Hamming distance, squared weighted Hamming, weighted precision, recall, conditional mutual information, and a generalized KL-divergence on sets. We also show that the generalized Bregman divergence on the Lovász extension of a submodular function, which we call the Lovász-Bregman divergence, is a continuous extension of a submodular Bregman divergence. We point out a number of applications, and in particular show that a proximal algorithm defined through the submodular Bregman divergence provides aframework for many mirror-descent style algorithms related to submodular function optimization. We also show that a generalization of the k-means algorithm using the Lovász Bregman divergence is natural in clustering scenarios where ordering is important. A unique property of this algorithm is that computing the mean ordering is extremely efficient unlike other order based distance measures.

We estimate the sample complexity of a recent robust estimator for a generalized version of the inverse covariance matrix. This estimator is used in a convex algorithm for robust subspace recovery (i.e., robust PCA). Our model assumes a sub-Gaussian underlying distribution and an i.i.d.~sample from it. Our main result shows with high probability that the norm of the difference between the generalized inverse covariance of the underlying distribution and its estimator from an i.i.d.~sample of size $N$ is of order $O(N^{-0.5+\eps})$ for arbitrarily small $\eps>0$ (affecting the probabilistic estimate); this rate of convergence is close to one of direct covariance and inverse covariance estimation, i.e., $O(N^{-0.5})$. Our precise probabilistic estimate implies for some natural settings that the sample complexity of the generalized inverse covariance estimation when using the Frobenius norm is $O(D^{2+\delta})$ for arbitrarily small $\delta>0$ (whereas the sample complexity of direct covariance estimation with Frobenius norm is $O(D^{2})$). These results provide similar rates of convergence and sample complexity for the corresponding robust subspace recovery algorithm, which are close to those of PCA. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only work analyzing the sample complexity of any robust PCA algorithm.

We develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for random bipartite graphs. The model is based on the theory of completely random measures and is able to handle a potentially infinite number of nodes. We show that the model has appealing properties and in particular it may exhibit a power-law behavior. We derive a posterior characterization, an Indian Buffet-like generative process for network growth, and a simple and efficient Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. Our model is shown to be well fitted to several real-world social networks.

Undirected graphical models, or Markov networks, such as Gaussian graphical models and Ising models enjoy popularity in a variety of applications. In many settings, however, data may not follow a Gaussian or binomial distribution assumed by these models. We introduce a new class of graphical models based on generalized linear models (GLM) by assuming that node-wise conditional distributions arise from exponential families. Our models allow one to estimate networks for a wide class of exponential distributions, such as the Poisson, negative binomial, and exponential, by fitting penalized GLMs to select the neighborhood for each node. A major contribution of this paper is the rigorous statistical analysis showing that with high probability, the neighborhood of our graphical models can be recovered exactly. We provide examples of high-throughput genomic networks learned via our GLM graphical models for multinomial and Poisson distributed data.

We present a novel marginalized particle Gaussian process (MPGP) regression, which provides a fast, accurate online Bayesian filtering framework to model the latent function. Using a state space model established by the data construction procedure, our MPGP recursively filters out the estimation of hidden function values by a Gaussian mixture. Meanwhile, it provides a new online method for training hyperparameters with a number of weighted particles. We demonstrate the estimated performance of our MPGP on both simulated and real large data sets. The results show that our MPGP is a robust estimation algorithm with high computational efficiency, which outperforms other state-of-art sparse GP methods.