One of the primary aspects of sustainable development involves accurate understanding and modeling of environmental phenomena. Many of these phenomena exhibit variations in both space and time and it is imperative to develop a deeper understanding of techniques that can model space-time dynamics accurately. In this paper we propose NOSTILL-GP - NOn-stationary Space TIme variable Latent Length scale GP, a generic non-stationary, spatio-temporal Gaussian Process (GP) model. We present several strategies, for efficient training of our model, necessary for real-world applicability. Extensive empirical validation is performed using three real-world environmental monitoring datasets, with diverse dynamics across space and time. Results from the experiments clearly demonstrate general applicability and effectiveness of our approach for applications in environmental monitoring.

Swirls of ocean currents known as ocean eddies are a crucial component of the ocean's dynamics. In addition to dominating the ocean's kinetic energy, eddies play a significant role in the transport of water, salt, heat, and nutrients. Therefore, understanding current and future eddy patterns is a central climate challenge to address future sustainability of marine ecosystems. The emergence of sea surface height observations from satellite radar altimeter has recently enabled researchers to track eddies at a global scale. The majority of studies that identify eddies from observational data employ highly parametrized connected component algorithms using expert filtered data, effectively making reproducibility and scalability challenging. In this paper, we frame the challenge of monitoring ocean eddies as an unsupervised learning problem. We present a novel change detection algorithm that automatically identifies and monitors eddies in sea surface height data based on heuristics derived from basic eddy properties. Our method is accurate, efficient, and scalable. To demonstrate its performance we analyze eddy activity in the Nordic Sea (60-80N and 20W-20E), an area that has received limited attention and has proven to be difficult to analyze using other methods.

Local and distributed power generation is increasingly relianton renewable power sources, e.g., solar (photovoltaic or PV) andwind energy. The integration of such sources into the power grid ischallenging, however, due to their variable and intermittent energyoutput. To effectively use them on alarge scale, it is essential to be able to predict power generation at afine-grained level. We describe a novel Bayesian ensemble methodologyinvolving three diverse predictors. Each predictor estimates mixingcoefficients for integrating PV generation output profiles but capturesfundamentally different characteristics. Two of them employ classicalparameterized (naive Bayes) and non-parametric (nearest neighbor) methods tomodel the relationship between weather forecasts and PV output. The thirdpredictor captures the sequentiality implicit in PV generation and uses motifsmined from historical data to estimate the most likely mixture weights usinga stream prediction methodology. We demonstrate the success and superiority of ourmethods on real PV data from two locations that exhibit diverse weatherconditions. Predictions from our model can be harnessed to optimize schedulingof delay tolerant workloads, e.g., in a data center.

In conservation biology and natural resource management, adaptive management is an iterative process of improving management by reducing uncertainty via monitoring. Adaptive management is the principal tool for conserving endangered species under global change, yet adaptive management problems suffer from a poor suite of solution methods. The common approach used to solve an adaptive management problem is to assume the system state is known and the system dynamics can be one of a set of pre-defined models. The solution method used is unsatisfactory, employing value iteration on a discretized belief MDP which restricts the study to very small problems. We show how to overcome this limitation by modelling an adaptive management problem as a restricted Mixed Observability MDP called hidden model MDP (hmMDP). We demonstrate how to simplify the value function, the backup operator and the belief update computation. We show that, although a simplified case of POMDPs, hm-MDPs are PSPACE-complete in the finite-horizon case. We illustrate the use of this model to manage a population of the threatened Gouldian finch, a bird species endemic to Northern Australia. Our simple modelling approach is an important step towards efficient algorithms for solving adaptive management problems.

One of the most challenging problems on modern urban planning and one of the goals to be solved for smart city design is that of urban waste disposal. Given urban population growth, and that the amount of waste generated by each of us citizens is also growing, the total amount of waste to be collected and treated is growing dramatically (EPA 2011), becoming one sensitive issue for local governments. A modern technique for waste collection that is steadily being adopted is automated vacuum waste collection. This technology uses air suction on a closed network of underground pipes to move waste from the collection points to the processing station, reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as inconveniences to citizens (odors, noise, . . . ) and allowing better waste reuse and recycling. This technique is open to optimize energy consumption because moving huge amounts of waste by air impulsion requires a lot of electric power. The described problem challenge here is, precisely, that of organizing and scheduling waste collection to minimize the amount of energy per ton of collected waste in such a system via the use of Artificial Intelligence techniques. This kind of problems are an inviting opportunity to showcase the possibilities that AI for Computational Sustainability offers.

Scientists use two forms of knowledge in the construction ofexplanatory models: generalized entities and processes that relatethem; and constraints that specify acceptable combinations of thesecomponents. Previous research on inductive process modeling, whichconstructs models from knowledge and time-series data, has relied onhandcrafted constraints. In this paper, we report an approach todiscovering such constraints from a set of models that have beenranked according to their error on observations. Our approach adaptsinductive techniques for supervised learning to identify processcombinations that characterize accurate models. We evaluate themethod's ability to reconstruct known constraints and to generalizewell to other modeling tasks in the same domain. Experiments with synthetic data indicate that the approach can successfully reconstructknown modeling constraints. Another study using natural data suggests that transferring constraints acquired from one modeling scenario to another within the same domain considerably reduces the amount of search for candidate model structures while retaining the most accurate ones.

Two information decay methods are examined that help multi-agent systems cope with dynamic environments. The agents in this simulation have human-like memory and a mechanism to moderate their communications: they forget internally stored information via temporal decay, and they forget distributed information by filtering it as it passes through a communication network. The agents play a foraging game, in which performance depends on communicating facts and requests and on storing facts in internal memory. Parameters of the game and agent models are tuned to human data. Agent groups with moderated communication in small-world networks achieve optimal performance for typical human memory decay values, while non-adaptive agents benefit from stronger memory decay. The decay and filtering strategies interact with the properties of the network graph in ways suggestive of an evolutionary co-optimization between the human cognitive system and an external social structure.

Metaphors being at the heart of our language and thought process, computationally modelling them is imperative for reproducing human cognitive abilities. In this work, we propose a plausible grounded cognitive model for artificial metaphor acquisition. We put forward a rule-based metaphor acquisition system, which doesn't make use of any prior 'seed metaphor set'. Through correlation between a video and co-occurring commentaries, we show that these rules can be automatically acquired by an early learner capable of manipulating multi-modal sensory input. From these grounded linguistic concepts, we derive classes based on lexico-syntactical language properties. Based on the selectional preferences of these linguistic elements, metaphorical mappings between source and target domains are acquired.

One issue facing agents that accumulate large bodies of knowledge is determining whether they have knowl- edge that is relevant to its current goals. Performing comprehensive searches of long-term memory in every situation can be computationally expensive and disrup- tive to task reasoning. In this paper, we demonstrate that the recognition judgment — a heuristic for whether memory structures have been previously perceived — can serve as a low-cost indicator of the existence of potentially relevant knowledge. We present an approach for computing both context-dependent and context- independent recognition judgments using processes and data shared with declarative memories. We then de- scribe an initial, efficient implementation in the Soar cognitive architecture and evaluate our system in a word sense disambiguation task, showing that it reduces the number of memory searches without degrading agent performance.

Generating future states of the world is an essential component of high-level cognitive tasks such as planning. We explore the notion that such future-state generation is more widespread and forms an integral part of cognition. We call these generated states expectations, and propose that cognitive systems constantly generate expectations, match them to observed behavior and react when a difference exists between the two. We describe an ACT-R model that performs expectation-driven cognition on two tasks – pedestrian tracking and behavior classification. The model generates expectations of pedestrian movements to track them. The model also uses differences in expectations to identify distinctive features that differentiate these tracks. During learning, the model learns the association between these features and the various behaviors. During testing, it classifies pedestrian tracks by recalling the behavior associated with the features of each track. We tested the model on both single and multiple behavior datasets and compared the results against a k-NN classifier. The k-NN classifier outperformed the model in correct classifications, but the model had fewer incorrect classifications in the multiple behavior case, and both systems had about equal incorrect classifications in the single behavior case.