Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms based on variational Gaussian (VG) approximations are widely employed since they strike a favorable balance between accuracy, generality, speed, and ease of use. However, the structure of the optimization problems associated with these approximations remains poorly understood, and standard solvers take too long to converge. We derive a novel dual variational inference approach that exploits the convexity property of the VG approximations. We obtain an algorithm that solves a convex optimization problem, reduces the number of variational parameters, and converges much faster than previous methods. Using real-world data, we demonstrate these advantages on a variety of LGMs, including Gaussian process classification, and latent Gaussian Markov random fields.

Many clustering models rely on the minimization of an energy over possible partitions of the data set. These discrete optimizations usually pose NPhard problems, however. A natural resolution of this issue involves relaxing the discrete minimization space into a continuous one to obtain an easier minimization procedure. Many current algorithms, such as spectral clustering methods or nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) methods, follow this relaxation approach. A fundamental problem arises when using this approach, however; in general the solution of the relaxed continuous problem and that of the discrete NPhard problem can differ substantially.

We aim to reduce the burden of programming and deploying autonomous systems to work in concert with people in time-critical domains, such as military field operations and disaster response. Deployment plans for these operations are frequently negotiated on-the-fly by teams of human planners. A human operator then translates the agreed upon plan into machine instructions for the robots. We present an algorithm that reduces this translation burden by inferring the final plan from a processed form of the human team's planning conversation. Our approach combines probabilistic generative modeling with logical plan validation used to compute a highly structured prior over possible plans. This hybrid approach enables us to overcome the challenge of performing inference over the large solution space with only a small amount of noisy data from the team planning session. We validate the algorithm through human subject experimentation and show we are able to infer a human team's final plan with 83% accuracy on average. We also describe a robot demonstration in which two people plan and execute a first-response collaborative task with a PR2 robot. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that integrates a logical planning technique within a generative model to perform plan inference.

We study the problem of learning with label proportions in which the training data is provided in groups and only the proportion of each class in each group is known. We propose a new method called proportion-SVM, or $\propto$SVM, which explicitly models the latent unknown instance labels together with the known group label proportions in a large-margin framework. Unlike the existing works, our approach avoids making restrictive assumptions about the data. The $\propto$SVM model leads to a non-convex integer programming problem. In order to solve it efficiently, we propose two algorithms: one based on simple alternating optimization and the other based on a convex relaxation. Extensive experiments on standard datasets show that $\propto$SVM outperforms the state-of-the-art, especially for larger group sizes.

We propose a technique for increasing the efficiency of gradient-based inference and learning in Bayesian networks with multiple layers of continuous latent vari- ables. We show that, in many cases, it is possible to express such models in an auxiliary form, where continuous latent variables are conditionally deterministic given their parents and a set of independent auxiliary variables. Variables of mod- els in this auxiliary form have much larger Markov blankets, leading to significant speedups in gradient-based inference, e.g. rapid mixing Hybrid Monte Carlo and efficient gradient-based optimization. The relative efficiency is confirmed in ex- periments.

Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it turns out that delay increases the regret in a multiplicative way in adversarial problems, and in an additive way in stochastic problems. We give meta-algorithms that transform, in a black-box fashion, algorithms developed for the non-delayed case into ones that can handle the presence of delays in the feedback loop. Modifications of the well-known UCB algorithm are also developed for the bandit problem with delayed feedback, with the advantage over the meta-algorithms that they can be implemented with lower complexity.

Consider a movie recommendation system where apart from the ratings information, side information such as user's age or movie's genre is also available. Unlike standard matrix completion, in this setting one should be able to predict inductively on new users/movies. In this paper, we study the problem of inductive matrix completion in the exact recovery setting. That is, we assume that the ratings matrix is generated by applying feature vectors to a low-rank matrix and the goal is to recover back the underlying matrix. Furthermore, we generalize the problem to that of low-rank matrix estimation using rank-1 measurements. We study this generic problem and provide conditions that the set of measurements should satisfy so that the alternating minimization method (which otherwise is a non-convex method with no convergence guarantees) is able to recover back the {\em exact} underlying low-rank matrix. In addition to inductive matrix completion, we show that two other low-rank estimation problems can be studied in our framework: a) general low-rank matrix sensing using rank-1 measurements, and b) multi-label regression with missing labels. For both the problems, we provide novel and interesting bounds on the number of measurements required by alternating minimization to provably converges to the {\em exact} low-rank matrix. In particular, our analysis for the general low rank matrix sensing problem significantly improves the required storage and computational cost than that required by the RIP-based matrix sensing methods \cite{RechtFP2007}. Finally, we provide empirical validation of our approach and demonstrate that alternating minimization is able to recover the true matrix for the above mentioned problems using a small number of measurements.

Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

We study the power of different types of adaptive (nonoblivious) adversaries in the setting of prediction with expert advice, under both full-information and bandit feedback. We measure the player's performance using a new notion of regret, also known as policy regret, which better captures the adversary's adaptiveness to the player's behavior. In a setting where losses are allowed to drift, we characterize ---in a nearly complete manner--- the power of adaptive adversaries with bounded memories and switching costs. In particular, we show that with switching costs, the attainable rate with bandit feedback is $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$. Interestingly, this rate is significantly worse than the $\Theta(\sqrt{T})$ rate attainable with switching costs in the full-information case. Via a novel reduction from experts to bandits, we also show that a bounded memory adversary can force $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$ regret even in the full information case, proving that switching costs are easier to control than bounded memory adversaries. Our lower bounds rely on a new stochastic adversary strategy that generates loss processes with strong dependencies.