This paper presents an approach for employing artificial neural networks (NN) to emulate an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as a method of data assimilation. The assimilation methods are tested in the Simplified Parameterizations PrimitivE-Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) model, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using synthetic observational data simulating localization of balloon soundings. For the data assimilation scheme, the supervised NN, the multilayer perceptrons (MLP-NN), is applied. The MLP-NN are able to emulate the analysis from the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). After the training process, the method using the MLP-NN is seen as a function of data assimilation. The NN were trained with data from first three months of 1982, 1983, and 1984. A hind-casting experiment for the 1985 data assimilation cycle using MLP-NN were performed with synthetic observations for January 1985. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the NN technique for atmospheric data assimilation. The results of the NN analyses are very close to the results from the LETKF analyses, the differences of the monthly average of absolute temperature analyses is of order 0.02. The simulations show that the major advantage of using the MLP-NN is better computational performance, since the analyses have similar quality. The CPU-time cycle assimilation with MLP-NN is 90 times faster than cycle assimilation with LETKF for the numerical experiment.

How do we allocate scarce resources? How do we fairly allocate costs? These are two pressing challenges facing society today. I discuss two recent projects at NICTA concerning resource and cost allocation. In the first, we have been working with FoodBank Local, a social startup working in collaboration with food bank charities around the world to optimise the logistics of collecting and distributing donated food. Before we can distribute this food, we must decide how to allocate it to different charities and food kitchens. This gives rise to a fair division problem with several new dimensions, rarely considered in the literature. In the second, we have been looking at cost allocation within the distribution network of a large multinational company. This also has several new dimensions rarely considered in the literature.

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a nonparametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists, including connectivity, cell body location and the spatial distribution of synapses, in a principled and probabilistically-coherent manner. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity, better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of C. elegans, and automatically discovers the structure of a microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.

The paper presents a new framework for complex Support Vector Regression as well as Support Vector Machines for quaternary classification. The method exploits the notion of widely linear estimation to model the input-out relation for complex-valued data and considers two cases: a) the complex data are split into their real and imaginary parts and a typical real kernel is employed to map the complex data to a complexified feature space and b) a pure complex kernel is used to directly map the data to the induced complex feature space. The recently developed Wirtinger's calculus on complex reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) is employed in order to compute the Lagrangian and derive the dual optimization problem. As one of our major results, we prove that any complex SVM/SVR task is equivalent with solving two real SVM/SVR tasks exploiting a specific real kernel which is generated by the chosen complex kernel. In particular, the case of pure complex kernels leads to the generation of new kernels, which have not been considered before. In the classification case, the proposed framework inherently splits the complex space into four parts. This leads naturally in solving the four class-task (quaternary classification), instead of the typical two classes of the real SVM. In turn, this rationale can be used in a multiclass problem as a split-class scenario based on four classes, as opposed to the one-versus-all method; this can lead to significant computational savings. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for regression and classification tasks that involve complex data.

Social influence has been widely accepted to explain people's cascade behaviors and further utilized in many related applications. However, few of existing work studied the direct, microscopic and temporal impact of social influence on people's behaviors in detail. In this paper we concentrate on the behavior modeling and systematically formulate the family of behavior propagation models (BPMs) including the static models (BP and IBP), and their discrete temporal variants (DBP and DIBP). To address the temporal dynamics of behavior propagation over continuous time, we propose a continuous temporal interest-aware behavior propagation model, called CIBP. As a new member of the BPM family, CIBP exploits the continuous-temporal functions (CTFs) to model the fully-continuous dynamic variance of social influence over time. Experiments on real-world datasets evaluated the family of BPMs and demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Researchers have introduced the Dynamic Distributed Constraint Optimization Problem (Dynamic DCOP) formulation to model dynamically changing multi-agent coordination problems, where a dynamic DCOP is a sequence of (static canonical) DCOPs, each partially different from the DCOP preceding it. Existing work typically assumes that the problem in each time step is decoupled from the problems in other time steps, which might not hold in some applications. Therefore, in this paper, we make the following contributions: (i) We introduce a new model, called Markovian Dynamic DCOPs (MD-DCOPs), where the DCOP in the next time step is a function of the value assignments in the current time step; (ii) We introduce two distributed reinforcement learning algorithms, the Distributed RVI Q-learning algorithm and the Distributed R-learning algorithm, that balance exploration and exploitation to solve MD-DCOPs in an online manner; and (iii) We empirically evaluate them against an existing multi-arm bandit DCOP algorithm on dynamic DCOPs.

We consider the class of convex minimization problems, composed of a self-concordant function, such as the logdet metric, a convex data fidelity term h(.) and, a regularizing — possibly non-smooth — function g(.). This type of problems have recently attracted a great deal of interest, mainly due to their omnipresence in top-notch applications. Under this locally Lipschitz continuous gradient setting, we analyze the convergence behavior of proximal Newton schemes with the added twist of a probable presence of inexact evaluations. We prove attractive convergence rate guarantees and enhance state-of-the-art optimization schemes to accommodate such developments. Experimental results on sparse covariance estimation show the merits of our algorithm, both in terms of recovery efficiency and complexity.

Many real-world planning problems are oversubscription problems where all goals are not simultaneously achievable and the planner needs to find a feasible subset. We present complexity results for the so-called partial satisfaction and net benefit problems under various restrictions; this extends previous work by van den Briel et al. Our results reveal strong connections between these problems and with classical planning. We also present a method for efficiently compiling oversubscription problems into the ordinary plan existence problem; this can be viewed as a continuation of earlier work by Keyder & Geffner.

Greedy Best-First Search (GBFS) is a powerful algorithm at the heart of many state of the art satisficing planners. One major weakness of GBFS is its behavior in so-called uninformative heuristic regions (UHRs) - parts of the search space in which no heuristic provides guidance towards states with improved heuristic values. This work analyzes the problem of UHRs in planning in detail, and proposes a two level search framework as a solution. In Greedy Best-First Search with Local Exploration (GBFS-LE), a local exploration is started from within a global GBFS whenever the search seems stuck in UHRs. Two different local exploration strategies are developed and evaluated experimentally: Local GBFS (LS) and Local Random Walk Search (LRW). The two new planners LAMA-LS and LAMA-LRW integrate these strategies into the GBFS component of LAMA-2011. Both are shown to yield clear improvements in terms of both coverage and search time on standard International Planning Competition benchmarks, especially for domains that are proven to have large or un- bounded UHRs.

Many AI applications need to explicitly represent relational structure as well as handle uncertainty. First order probabilistic models combine the power of logic and probability to deal with such domains. A naive approach to inference in these models is to propositionalize the whole theory and carry out the inference on the ground network. Lifted inference techniques (such as lifted belief propagation; Singla and Domingos 2008) provide a more scalable approach to inference by combining together groups of objects which behave identically. In many cases, constructing the lifted network can itself be quite costly. In addition, the exact lifted network is often very close in size to the fully propositionalized model. To overcome these problems, we present approximate lifted inference, which groups together similar but distinguishable objects and treats them as if they were identical. Early stopping terminates the execution of the lifted network construction at an early stage resulting in a coarser network. Noise-tolerant hypercubes allow for marginal errors in the representation of the lifted network itself. Both of our algorithms can significantly speed up the process of lifted network construction as well as result in much smaller models. The coarseness of the approximation can be adjusted depending on the accuracy required, and we can bound the resulting error. Extensive evaluation on six domains demonstrates great efficiency gains with only minor (or no) loss in accuracy.