We consider the least-squares regression problem and provide a detailed asymptotic analysis of the performance of averaged constant-step-size stochastic gradient descent (a.k.a. least-mean-squares). In the strongly-convex case, we provide an asymptotic expansion up to explicit exponentially decaying terms. Our analysis leads to new insights into stochastic approximation algorithms: (a) it gives a tighter bound on the allowed step-size; (b) the generalization error may be divided into a variance term which is decaying as O(1/n), independently of the step-size $\gamma$, and a bias term that decays as O(1/$\gamma$ 2 n 2); (c) when allowing non-uniform sampling, the choice of a good sampling density depends on whether the variance or bias terms dominate. In particular, when the variance term dominates, optimal sampling densities do not lead to much gain, while when the bias term dominates, we can choose larger step-sizes that leads to significant improvements.

In this paper we consider the problem of learning undirected graphical models from data generated according to the Glauber dynamics. The Glauber dynamics is a Markov chain that sequentially updates individual nodes (variables) in a graphical model and it is frequently used to sample from the stationary distribution (to which it converges given sufficient time). Additionally, the Glauber dynamics is a natural dynamical model in a variety of settings. This work deviates from the standard formulation of graphical model learning in the literature, where one assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the distribution. Much of the research on graphical model learning has been directed towards finding algorithms with low computational cost. As the main result of this work, we establish that the problem of reconstructing binary pairwise graphical models is computationally tractable when we observe the Glauber dynamics. Specifically, we show that a binary pairwise graphical model on $p$ nodes with maximum degree $d$ can be learned in time $f(d)p^2\log p$, for a function $f(d)$, using nearly the information-theoretic minimum number of samples.

We discuss two views on extending existing methods for complex network modeling which we dub the communities first and the networks first view, respectively. Inspired by the networks first view that we attribute to White, Boorman, and Breiger (1976)[1], we formulate the multiple-networks stochastic blockmodel (MNSBM), which seeks to separate the observed network into subnetworks of different types and where the problem of inferring structure in each subnetwork becomes easier. We show how this model is specified in a generative Bayesian framework where parameters can be inferred efficiently using Gibbs sampling. The result is an effective multiple-membership model without the drawbacks of introducing complex definitions of "groups" and how they interact. We demonstrate results on the recovery of planted structure in synthetic networks and show very encouraging results on link prediction performances using multiple-networks models on a number of real-world network data sets.

When solving data analysis problems it is important to integrate prior knowledge and/or structural invariances. This paper contributes by a novel framework for incorporating algebraic invariance structure into kernels. In particular, we show that algebraic properties such as sign symmetries in data, phase independence, scaling etc. can be included easily by essentially performing the kernel trick twice. We demonstrate the usefulness of our theory in simulations on selected applications such as sign-invariant spectral clustering and underdetermined ICA.

Rodent hippocampal population codes represent important spatial information about the environment during navigation. Several computational methods have been developed to uncover the neural representation of spatial topology embedded in rodent hippocampal ensemble spike activity. Here we extend our previous work and propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to infer rat hippocampal population codes during spatial navigation. To tackle the model selection problem, we leverage a nonparametric Bayesian model. Specifically, to analyze rat hippocampal ensemble spiking activity, we apply a hierarchical Dirichlet process-hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM) using two Bayesian inference methods, one based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the other based on variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian approaches on recordings from a freely-behaving rat navigating in an open field environment. We find that MCMC-based inference with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) hyperparameter sampling is flexible and efficient, and outperforms VB and MCMC approaches with hyperparameters set by empirical Bayes.

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model is a computational approach commonly used for modeling the complex relationships between input and output parameters. Prediction of the flow rate of a river is a requisite for any successful water resource management and river basin planning. In the current survey, the effectiveness of an Artificial Neural Network was examined to predict the Colorado River discharge. In this modeling process, an ANN model was used to relate the discharge of the Colorado River to such parameters as the amount of precipitation, ambient temperature and snowpack level at a specific time of the year. The model was able to precisely study the impact of climatic parameters on the flow rate of the Colorado River. Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Discharge, Colorado River, River basin planning 1. Introduction The volumetric flow rate of a river, also called its discharge, at a particular point, is the volume of water passing through the cross section of the river at that point in a unit of time. As aforementioned, forecasting the flow rate of a river could be very useful in water resources management. Any seasonal river basin planning for designation of water between different consumers can not succeed without knowing/predicting the amount of water (i.e.

Contrary to standard statistical models, unnormalised statistical models only specify the likelihood function up to a constant. While such models are natural and popular, the lack of normalisation makes inference much more difficult. Here we show that inferring the parameters of a unnormalised model on a space $\Omega$ can be mapped onto an equivalent problem of estimating the intensity of a Poisson point process on $\Omega$. The unnormalised statistical model now specifies an intensity function that does not need to be normalised. Effectively, the normalisation constant may now be inferred as just another parameter, at no loss of information. The result can be extended to cover non-IID models, which includes for example unnormalised models for sequences of graphs (dynamical graphs), or for sequences of binary vectors. As a consequence, we prove that unnormalised parameteric inference in non-IID models can be turned into a semi-parametric estimation problem. Moreover, we show that the noise-contrastive divergence of Gutmann & Hyv\"arinen (2012) can be understood as an approximation of the Poisson transform, and extended to non-IID settings. We use our results to fit spatial Markov chain models of eye movements, where the Poisson transform allows us to turn a highly non-standard model into vanilla semi-parametric logistic regression.

In this paper, we propose an efficient semidefinite programming (SDP) approach to worst-case linear discriminant analysis (WLDA). Compared with the traditional LDA, WLDA considers the dimensionality reduction problem from the worst-case viewpoint, which is in general more robust for classification. However, the original problem of WLDA is non-convex and difficult to optimize. In this paper, we reformulate the optimization problem of WLDA into a sequence of semidefinite feasibility problems. To efficiently solve the semidefinite feasibility problems, we design a new scalable optimization method with quasi-Newton methods and eigen-decomposition being the core components. The proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than standard interior-point based SDP solvers. Experiments on a variety of classification problems demonstrate that our approach achieves better performance than standard LDA. Our method is also much faster and more scalable than standard interior-point SDP solvers based WLDA. The computational complexity for an SDP with $m$ constraints and matrices of size $d$ by $d$ is roughly reduced from $\mathcal{O}(m^3+md^3+m^2d^2)$ to $\mathcal{O}(d^3)$ ($m>d$ in our case).

We show two novel concentration inequalities for suprema of empirical processes when sampling without replacement, which both take the variance of the functions into account. While these inequalities may potentially have broad applications in learning theory in general, we exemplify their significance by studying the transductive setting of learning theory. For which we provide the first excess risk bounds based on the localized complexity of the hypothesis class, which can yield fast rates of convergence also in the transductive learning setting. We give a preliminary analysis of the localized complexities for the prominent case of kernel classes.

We investigate the geometrical structure of probabilistic generative dimensionality reduction models using the tools of Riemannian geometry. We explicitly define a distribution over the natural metric given by the models. We provide the necessary algorithms to compute expected metric tensors where the distribution over mappings is given by a Gaussian process. We treat the corresponding latent variable model as a Riemannian manifold and we use the expectation of the metric under the Gaussian process prior to define interpolating paths and measure distance between latent points. We show how distances that respect the expected metric lead to more appropriate generation of new data.