Several heuristic search algorithms such as A* and breadth-first branch and bound have been developed for learning Bayesian network structures that optimize a scoring function. These algorithms rely on a lower bound function called k-cycle conflict heuristic in guiding the search to explore the most promising search spaces. The heuristic takes as input a partition of the random variables of a data set; the importance of the partition opens up opportunities for further research. This work introduces a new partition method based on information extracted from the potential optimal parent sets (POPS) of the variables. Empirical results show that the new partition can significantly improve the efficiency and scalability of heuristic search-based structure learning algorithms.

How should we gather information to make effective decisions? A classical answer to this fundamental problem is given by the decision-theoretic value of information. Unfortunately, optimizing this objective is intractable, and myopic (greedy) approximations are known to perform poorly. In this paper, we introduce DiRECt, an efficient yet near-optimal algorithm for nonmyopically optimizing value of information. Crucially, DiRECt uses a novel surrogate objective that is: (1) aligned with the value of information problem (2) efficient to evaluate and (3) adaptive submodular. This latter property enables us to utilize an efficient greedy optimization while providing strong approximation guarantees. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on four diverse case-studies: touch-based robotic localization, comparison-based preference learning, wild-life conservation management, and preference elicitation in behavioral economics. In the first application, we demonstrate DiRECt in closed-loop on an actual robotic platform.

There are many criteria for measuring the value of information (VOI), each based on a different principle that is usually suitable for specific applications. We propose a new criterion for measuring the value of information, which values information that leads to robust decisions (i.e., ones that are unlikely to change due to new information). We also introduce an algorithm for Naive Bayes networks that selects features with maximal VOI under the new criteria. We discuss the application of the new criteria to classification tasks, showing how it can be used to tradeoff the budget, allotted for acquiring information, with the classification accuracy. In particular, we show empirically that the new criteria can reduce the expended budget significantly while reducing the classification accuracy only slightly. We also show empirically that the new criterion leads to decisions that are much more robust than those based on traditional VOI criteria, such as information gain and classification loss. This make the new criteria particularly suitable for certain decision making applications.

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with a set of target states and every transition is associated with an integer cost. The optimization objective we study asks to minimize the expected total cost till the target set is reached, while ensuring that the target set is reached almost-surely (with probability 1). We show that for integer costs approximating the optimal cost is undecidable. For positive costs, our results are as follows: (i) we establish matching lower and upper bounds for the optimal cost and the bound is double exponential; (ii) we show that the problem of approximating the optimal cost is decidable and present approximation algorithms developing on the existing algorithms for POMDPs with finite-horizon objectives. While the worst-case running time of our algorithm is double exponential, we present efficient stopping criteria for the algorithm and show experimentally that it performs well in many examples of interest.

We consider the problem of, given a probabilistic model on a set of random variables, how to add a new variable that depends on the other variables, without changing the original distribution. In particular, we consider relational models (such as Markov logic networks (MLNs)), where we cannot directly define conditional probabilities. In relational models, there may be an unbounded number of parents in the grounding, and conditional distributions need to be defined in terms of aggregators. The question we ask is whether and when it is possible to represent conditional probabilities at all in various relational models. Some aggregators have been shown to be representable by MLNs, by adding auxiliary variables; however it was unknown whether they could be defined without auxiliary variables. For other aggregators, it was not known whether they can be represented by MLNs at all. We obtained surprisingly strong negative results on the capability of flexible undirected relational models such as MLNs to represent aggregators without affecting the original model's distribution. We provide a map of what aspects of the models, including the use of auxiliary variables and quantifiers, result in the ability to represent various aggregators. In addition, we provide proof techniques which can be used to facilitate future theoretic results on relational models, and demonstrate them on relational logistic regression (RLR).

Following Fleming (1952), Harsanyi (1955) showed that if the collective preference satisfies von Neumann and Morgenstern's Prade's axioms (1995), and particularly risk aversion, The present paper raises the question of collective resorts on (i) the identification of a theory of decision decision making under possibilistic uncertainty. The making under uncertainty (DMU) that captures the decision next Section recalls the basic notions on which our work relies makers' behaviour with respect to uncertainty and (ii) the (decision under possibilistic uncertainty, collective utility specification of a collective utility function (CUF) as it may functions, etc.).

Controlling for selection and confounding biases are two of the most challenging problems that appear in data analysis in the empirical sciences as well as in artificial intelligence tasks. The combination of previously studied methods for each of these biases in isolation is not directly applicable to certain non-trivial cases in which selection and confounding biases are simultaneously present. In this paper, we tackle these instances non-parametrically and in full generality. We provide graphical and algorithmic conditions for recoverability of interventional distributions for when selection and confounding biases are both present. Our treatment completely characterizes the class of causal effects that are recoverable in Markovian models, and is suffi- cient for Semi-Markovian models.

Model counting is the problem of computing the number of models that satisfy a given propositional theory. It has recently been applied to solving inference tasks in probabilistic logic programming, where the goal is to compute the probability of given queries being true provided a set of mutually independent random variables, a model (a logic program) and some evidence. The core of solving this inference task involves translating the logic program to a propositional theory and using a model counter. In this paper, we show that for some problems that involve inductive definitions like reachability in a graph, the translation of logic programs to SAT can be expensive for the purpose of solving inference tasks. For such problems, direct implementation of stable model semantics allows for more efficient solving. We present two implementation techniques, based on unfounded set detection, that extend a propositional model counter to a stable model counter. Our experiments show that for particular problems, our approach can outperform a state-of-the-art probabilistic logic programming solver by several orders of magnitude in terms of running time and space requirements, and can solve instances of significantly larger sizes on which the current solver runs out of time or memory.

Many real-world Bayesian inference problems such as preference learning or trader valuation modeling in financial markets naturally use piecewise likelihoods. Unfortunately, exact closed-form inference in the underlying Bayesian graphical models is intractable in the general case and existing approximation techniques provide few guarantees on both approximation quality and efficiency. While (Markov Chain) Monte Carlo methods provide an attractive asymptotically unbiased approximation approach, rejection sampling and Metropolis-Hastings both prove inefficient in practice, and analytical derivation of Gibbs samplers require exponential space and time in the amount of data. In this work, we show how to transform problematic piecewise likelihoods into equivalent mixture models and then provide a blocked Gibbs sampling approach for this transformed model that achieves an exponential-to-linear reduction in space and time compared to a conventional Gibbs sampler. This enables fast, asymptotically unbiased Bayesian inference in a new expressive class of piecewise graphical models and empirically requires orders of magnitude less time than rejection, Metropolis-Hastings, and conventional Gibbs sampling methods to achieve the same level of accuracy.

Markov Decision Problems, MDPs offer an effective mechanism for planning under uncertainty. However, due to unavoidable uncertainty over models, it is difficult to obtain an exact specification of an MDP. We are interested in solving MDPs, where transition and reward functions are not exactly specified. Existing research has primarily focussed on computing infinite horizon stationary policies when optimizing robustness, regret and percentile based objectives. We focus specifically on finite horizon problems with a special emphasis on objectives that are separable over individual instantiations of model uncertainty (i.e., objectives that can be expressed as a sum over instantiations of model uncertainty): (a) First, we identify two separable objectives for uncertain MDPs: Average Value Maximization (AVM) and Confidence Probability Maximisation (CPM). (b) Second, we provide optimization based solutions to compute policies for uncertain MDPs with such objectives. In particular, we exploit the separability of AVM and CPM objectives by employing Lagrangian dual decomposition(LDD). (c) Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the LDD approach on a benchmark problem from the literature.