Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time in the number of observations. This paper describes a sublinear-time algorithm for making Metropolis-Hastings (MH) updates to latent variables in probabilistic programs. The approach generalizes recently introduced approximate MH techniques: instead of subsampling data items assumed to be independent, it subsamples edges in a dynamically constructed graphical model. It thus applies to a broader class of problems and interoperates with other general-purpose inference techniques. Empirical results, including confirmation of sublinear per-transition scaling, are presented for Bayesian logistic regression, nonlinear classification via joint Dirichlet process mixtures, and parameter estimation for stochastic volatility models (with state estimation via particle MCMC). All three applications use the same implementation, and each requires under 20 lines of probabilistic code.

We develop an efficient sampling method by simulating Langevin dynamics with an artificial force rather than a natural force by using the gradient of the potential energy. The standard technique for sampling following the predetermined distribution such as the Gibbs-Boltzmann one is performed under the detailed balance condition. In the present study, we propose a modified Langevin dynamics violating the detailed balance condition on the transition-probability formulation. We confirm that the numerical implementation of the proposed method actually demonstrates two major beneficial improvements: acceleration of the relaxation to the predetermined distribution and reduction of the correlation time between two different realizations in the steady state.

Low rank tensor learning, such as tensor completion and multilinear multitask learning, has received much attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose higher order matching pursuit for low rank tensor learning problems with a convex or a nonconvex cost function, which is a generalization of the matching pursuit type methods. At each iteration, the main cost of the proposed methods is only to compute a rank-one tensor, which can be done efficiently, making the proposed methods scalable to large scale problems. Moreover, storing the resulting rank-one tensors is of low storage requirement, which can help to break the curse of dimensionality. The linear convergence rate of the proposed methods is established in various circumstances. Along with the main methods, we also provide a method of low computational complexity for approximately computing the rank-one tensors, with provable approximation ratio, which helps to improve the efficiency of the main methods and to analyze the convergence rate. Experimental results on synthetic as well as real datasets verify the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed methods. Tensors, appearing as the higher order generalization of vectors and matrices, make it possible to represent data that have intrinsically many dimensions, and give a better understanding of the relationship behind the information from a higher order perspective. In many machine learning problems such as tensor completion [1]-[4], multilinear multitask learning (MLMTL) [5]-[7] and tensor regression [8], one often aims at learning a tensor that has low rankness. For example, in tensor completion, the goal is to learn a low rank tensor provided that only partial observations are available. In the context of MLMTL, to allow for common information shared between tasks to pursuit better generalization, by learning several tasks simultaneously, where each task is indexed by more than two indices, all the tasks can be represented by a tensor assumed to lie in a low dimensional spaces. In tensor regression, to better understand the information behind high dimensionality data, the weight vector is represented by a low rank tensor. These applications give rise to low rank tensor learning. Commonly speaking, to learn a low rank tensor, tensor learning minimizes a real-valued cost functionF: T R subject to some constraints or with regularizations to encourage the low rank property of the learned tensor.

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length, but dataset diversity might be poor in comparison. Recent models have gained significant improvement in supervised tasks with this data. These models embed observations in a continuous space to capture similarities between them. Building on these ideas we propose a Bayesian model for the unsupervised task of distribution estimation of multivariate categorical data. We model vectors of categorical variables as generated from a non-linear transformation of a continuous latent space. Non-linearity captures multi-modality in the distribution. The continuous representation addresses sparsity. Our model ties together many existing models, linking the linear categorical latent Gaussian model, the Gaussian process latent variable model, and Gaussian process classification. We derive inference for our model based on recent developments in sampling based variational inference. We show empirically that the model outperforms its linear and discrete counterparts in imputation tasks of sparse data.

Computer vision is hard because of a large variability in lighting, shape, and texture; in addition the image signal is non-additive due to occlusion. Generative models promised to account for this variability by accurately modelling the image formation process as a function of latent variables with prior beliefs. Bayesian posterior inference could then, in principle, explain the observation. While intuitively appealing, generative models for computer vision have largely failed to deliver on that promise due to the difficulty of posterior inference. As a result the community has favoured efficient discriminative approaches. We still believe in the usefulness of generative models in computer vision, but argue that we need to leverage existing discriminative or even heuristic computer vision methods. We implement this idea in a principled way with an "informed sampler" and in careful experiments demonstrate it on challenging generative models which contain renderer programs as their components. We concentrate on the problem of inverting an existing graphics rendering engine, an approach that can be understood as "Inverse Graphics". The informed sampler, using simple discriminative proposals based on existing computer vision technology, achieves significant improvements of inference.

Sales pipeline win-propensity prediction is fundamental to effective sales management. In contrast to using subjective human rating, we propose a modern machine learning paradigm to estimate the win-propensity of sales leads over time. A profile-specific two-dimensional Hawkes processes model is developed to capture the influence from seller's activities on their leads to the win outcome, coupled with lead's personalized profiles. It is motivated by two observations: i) sellers tend to frequently focus their selling activities and efforts on a few leads during a relatively short time. This is evidenced and reflected by their concentrated interactions with the pipeline, including login, browsing and updating the sales leads which are logged by the system; ii) the pending opportunity is prone to reach its win outcome shortly after such temporally concentrated interactions. Our model is deployed and in continual use to a large, global, B2B multinational technology enterprize (Fortune 500) with a case study. Due to the generality and flexibility of the model, it also enjoys the potential applicability to other real-world problems.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) provides a formal framework for optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, it is generally intractable to find the Bayes-optimal behavior except for restricted cases. As a consequence, many BRL algorithms, model-based approaches in particular, rely on approximated models or real-time search methods. In this paper, we present potential-based shaping for improving the learning performance in model-based BRL. We propose a number of potential functions that are particularly well suited for BRL, and are domain-independent in the sense that they do not require any prior knowledge about the actual environment. By incorporating the potential function into real-time heuristic search, we show that we can significantly improve the learning performance in standard benchmark domains.

However, implementing such a strategy requires combining the VFI framework with policy parameterization, rebalancing continually as assets prices fluctuate, the proposed ADP method enjoys complementary advantages and therefore will lead to high or even infinite transaction of low approximation errors from VFI and high computational costs. Since then researchers have tried to address this issue efficiency from policy parameterization. Briefly, by solving Merton's portfolio problem in the presence the components from VFI pave the way for effectively parameterizing of transaction costs. Thereinto, the proportional transaction a complex policy in a high-dimensional space; costs model, as a suitable model for brokerage commissions the components from policy parameterization provide a and bid-ask spread costs, typifies the common situation pathway to efficiently evaluating the strategy and bypassing for normal investors (Brandt 2010; Cvitanic 2001; the issue of error amplification.

The expressive power of a Gaussian process (GP) model comes at a cost of poor scalability in the data size. To improve its scalability, this paper presents a low-rank-cum-Markov approximation (LMA) of the GP model that is novel in leveraging the dual computational advantages stemming from complementing a low-rank approximate representation of the full-rank GP based on a support set of inputs with a Markov approximation of the resulting residual process; the latter approximation is guaranteed to be closest in the Kullback-Leibler distance criterion subject to some constraint and is considerably more refined than that of existing sparse GP models utilizing low-rank representations due to its more relaxed conditional independence assumption (especially with larger data). As a result, our LMA method can trade off between the size of the support set and the order of the Markov property to (a) incur lower computational cost than such sparse GP models while achieving predictive performance comparable to them and (b) accurately represent features/patterns of any scale. Interestingly, varying the Markov order produces a spectrum of LMAs with PIC approximation and full-rank GP at the two extremes. An advantage of our LMA method is that it is amenable to parallelization on multiple machines/cores, thereby gaining greater scalability. Empirical evaluation on three real-world datasets in clusters of up to 32 computing nodes shows that our centralized and parallel LMA methods are significantly more time-efficient and scalable than state-of-the-art sparse and full-rank GP regression methods while achieving comparable predictive performances.

Current diagnostic methods for mental pathologies, including Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), involve a clinician-coded interview, which can be subjective. Heart rate and skin conductance, as well as other peripheral physiology measures, have previously shown utility in predicting binary diagnostic decisions. The binary decision problem is easier, but misses important information on the severity of the patient’s condition. This work utilizes a novel experimental set-up that exploits virtual reality videos and peripheral physiology for PTSD diagnosis. In pursuit of an automated physiology-based objective diagnostic method, we propose a learning formulation that integrates the description of the experimental data and expert knowledge on desirable properties of a physiological diagnostic score. From a list of desired criteria, we derive a new cost function that combines regression and classification while learning the salient features for predicting physiological score. The physiological score produced by Sparse Combined Regression-Classification (SCRC) is assessed with respect to three sets of criteria chosen to reflect design goals for an objective, physiological PTSD score: parsimony and context of selected features, diagnostic score validity, and learning generalizability. For these criteria, we demonstrate that Sparse Combined Regression-Classification performs better than more generic learning approaches.