We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the short-term prediction of human mobility. The experts are individual sequence prediction algorithms constructed from the mobility traces of 10 million roaming mobile phone users in a European country. Average prediction accuracy is significantly higher than that of individual sequence prediction algorithms, namely constant order Markov models derived from the user's own data, that have been shown to achieve high accuracy in previous studies of human mobility prediction. The algorithm uses only time stamped location data, and accuracy depends on the completeness of the expert ensemble, which should contain redundant records of typical mobility patterns. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the prediction of any sufficiently large dataset of sequences. The problem of algorithmic prediction of human mobility has received significant attention in the literature in recent years, for its potential applications and its inherent theoretical value. The problem is posed as asking for a prediction of the short-term future location of an individual, given his or hers previous locations and possibly other side information. One can distinguish the algorithms that have been studied in the mobility prediction literature in two classes. On one hand, we have algorithms that use only the single user's past locations, without any other information, to estimate the next location. This individual sequence prediction is closely related to lossless compression of sequential data [1-3]. The other category comprises methods that take advantage of data beyond the user's own past locations (e.g. the network of connections between devices as a proxy of the user's social interactions [4]).

A mixture of factor analyzers is a semi-parametric density estimator that generalizes the well-known mixtures of Gaussians model by allowing each Gaussian in the mixture to be represented in a different lower-dimensional manifold. This paper presents a robust and parsimonious model selection algorithm for training a mixture of factor analyzers, carrying out simultaneous clustering and locally linear, globally nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Permitting different number of factors per mixture component, the algorithm adapts the model complexity to the data complexity. We compare the proposed algorithm with related automatic model selection algorithms on a number of benchmarks. The results indicate the effectiveness of this fast and robust approach in clustering, manifold learning and class-conditional modeling.

Natural signals and images are well-known to be approximately sparse in transform domains such as Wavelets and DCT. This property has been heavily exploited in various applications in image processing and medical imaging. Compressed sensing exploits the sparsity of images or image patches in a transform domain or synthesis dictionary to reconstruct images from undersampled measurements. In this work, we focus on blind compressed sensing, where the underlying sparsifying transform is a priori unknown, and propose a framework to simultaneously reconstruct the underlying image as well as the sparsifying transform from highly undersampled measurements. The proposed block coordinate descent type algorithms involve highly efficient optimal updates. Importantly, we prove that although the proposed blind compressed sensing formulations are highly nonconvex, our algorithms are globally convergent (i.e., they converge from any initialization) to the set of critical points of the objectives defining the formulations. These critical points are guaranteed to be at least partial global and partial local minimizers. The exact point(s) of convergence may depend on initialization. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed framework for magnetic resonance image reconstruction from highly undersampled k-space measurements. As compared to previous methods involving the synthesis dictionary model, our approach is much faster, while also providing promising reconstruction quality.

This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowledge of the observation model is only provided by examples of state-observation pairs. This setting is important and appears when state variables are defined as quantities that are very different from the observations. We propose Kernel Monte Carlo Filter, a novel filtering method that is focused on this setting. Our approach is based on the framework of kernel mean embeddings, which enables nonparametric posterior inference using the state-observation examples. The proposed method represents state distributions as weighted samples, propagates these samples by sampling, estimates the state posteriors by Kernel Bayes' Rule, and resamples by Kernel Herding. In particular, the sampling and resampling procedures are novel in being expressed using kernel mean embeddings, so we theoretically analyze their behaviors. We reveal the following properties, which are similar to those of corresponding procedures in particle methods: (1) the performance of sampling can degrade if the effective sample size of a weighted sample is small; (2) resampling improves the sampling performance by increasing the effective sample size. We first demonstrate these theoretical findings by synthetic experiments. Then we show the effectiveness of the proposed filter by artificial and real data experiments, which include vision-based mobile robot localization.

The objectives of this technical report is to provide additional results on the generalized conditional gradient methods introduced by Bredies et al. [BLM05]. Indeed , when the objective function is smooth, we provide a novel certificate of optimality and we show that the algorithm has a linear convergence rate. Applications of this algorithm are also discussed.

We propose a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithm for scalable inference in mixed-membership stochastic blockmodels (MMSB). Our algorithm is based on the stochastic gradient Riemannian Langevin sampler and achieves both faster speed and higher accuracy at every iteration than the current state-of-the-art algorithm based on stochastic variational inference. In addition we develop an approximation that can handle models that entertain a very large number of communities. The experimental results show that SG-MCMC strictly dominates competing algorithms in all cases.

Inventory control with unknown demand distribution is considered, with emphasis placed on the case involving discrete nonperishable items. We focus on an adaptive policy which in every period uses, as much as possible, the optimal newsvendor ordering quantity for the empirical distribution learned up to that period. The policy is assessed using the regret criterion, which measures the price paid for ambiguity on demand distribution over $T$ periods. When there are guarantees on the latter's separation from the critical newsvendor parameter $\beta=b/(h+b)$, a constant upper bound on regret can be found. Without any prior information on the demand distribution, we show that the regret does not grow faster than the rate $T^{1/2+\epsilon}$ for any $\epsilon>0$. In view of a known lower bound, this is almost the best one could hope for. Simulation studies involving this along with other policies are also conducted.

In Deep Learning, a well-known approach for training a Deep Neural Network starts by training a generative Deep Belief Network model, typically using Contrastive Divergence (CD), then fine-tuning the weights using backpropagation or other discriminative techniques. However, the generative training can be time-consuming due to the slow mixing of Gibbs sampling. We investigated an alternative approach that estimates model expectations of Restricted Boltzmann Machines using samples from a D-Wave quantum annealing machine. We tested this method on a coarse-grained version of the MNIST data set. In our tests we found that the quantum sampling-based training approach achieves comparable or better accuracy with significantly fewer iterations of generative training than conventional CD-based training. Further investigation is needed to determine whether similar improvements can be achieved for other data sets, and to what extent these improvements can be attributed to quantum effects.

The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of future evaluations. Our novel algorithm, glasses, permits the consideration of dozens of evaluations into the future. This is done by approximating the ideal look-ahead loss function, which is expensive to evaluate, by a cheaper alternative in which the future steps of the algorithm are simulated beforehand. An Expectation Propagation algorithm is used to compute the expected value of the loss. We show that the far-horizon planning thus enabled leads to substantive performance gains in empirical tests.

We propose a novel method for multiple clustering that assumes a co-clustering structure (partitions in both rows and columns of the data matrix) in each view. The new method is applicable to high-dimensional data. It is based on a nonparametric Bayesian approach in which the number of views and the number of feature-/subject clusters are inferred in a data-driven manner. We simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block. This makes our method applicable to datasets consisting of both numerical and categorical variables, which biomedical data typically do. Clustering solutions are based on variational inference with mean field approximation. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.