Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-searchbased tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in peoples online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. There are some minor differences between this preprint and the published paper. Big data sets are constantly generated nowadays as the activities of millions of users are collected from internet-based services. Numerous studies have suggested great potential of these big data sets to detect/manage epidemic outbreaks (influenza [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], Ebola [7], dengue [8]), predict changes in stock prices [9, 10] and housing prices [11], etc. In 2009, Google Flu Trends (GFT), a digital disease detection system that uses the volume of selected Google search terms to estimate current influenza-like illnesses (ILI) activity, was identified by many as a good example of how big data would transform traditional statistical predictive analysis [12].

The use of brain images as markers for diseases or behavioral differences is challenged by the small effects size and the ensuing lack of power, an issue that has incited researchers to rely more systematically on large cohorts. Coupled with resolution increases, this leads to very large datasets. A striking example in the case of brain imaging is that of the Human Connectome Project: 20 Terabytes of data and growing. The resulting data deluge poses severe challenges regarding the tractability of some processing steps (discriminant analysis, multivariate models) due to the memory demands posed by these data. In this work, we revisit dimension reduction approaches, such as random projections, with the aim of replacing costly function evaluations by cheaper ones while decreasing the memory requirements. Specifically, we investigate the use of alternate schemes, based on fast clustering, that are well suited for signals exhibiting a strong spatial structure, such as anatomical and functional brain images. Our contribution is twofold: i) we propose a linear-time clustering scheme that bypasses the percolation issues inherent in these algorithms and thus provides compressions nearly as good as traditional quadratic-complexity variance-minimizing clustering schemes, ii) we show that cluster-based compression can have the virtuous effect of removing high-frequency noise, actually improving subsequent estimations steps. As a consequence, the proposed approach yields very accurate models on several large-scale problems yet with impressive gains in computational efficiency, making it possible to analyze large datasets.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distribution: a bad proposal can lead to arbitrarily inaccurate estimates of the target distribution. This paper presents a new method for automatically adapting the proposal using an approximation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the proposal distribution. The method is very flexible, applicable to any parameterized proposal distribution and it supports online and batch variants. We use the new framework to adapt powerful proposal distributions with rich parameterizations based upon neural networks leading to Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (NASMC). Experiments indicate that NASMC significantly improves inference in a non-linear state space model outperforming adaptive proposal methods including the Extended Kalman and Unscented Particle Filters. Experiments also indicate that improved inference translates into improved parameter learning when NASMC is used as a subroutine of Particle Marginal Metropolis Hastings. Finally we show that NASMC is able to train a latent variable recurrent neural network (LV-RNN) achieving results that compete with the state-of-the-art for polymorphic music modelling. NASMC can be seen as bridging the gap between adaptive SMC methods and the recent work in scalable, black-box variational inference.

We propose mS2GD: a method incorporating a mini-batching scheme for improving the theoretical complexity and practical performance of semi-stochastic gradient descent (S2GD). We consider the problem of minimizing a strongly convex function represented as the sum of an average of a large number of smooth convex functions, and a simple nonsmooth convex regularizer. Our method first performs a deterministic step (computation of the gradient of the objective function at the starting point), followed by a large number of stochastic steps. The process is repeated a few times with the last iterate becoming the new starting point. The novelty of our method is in introduction of mini-batching into the computation of stochastic steps. In each step, instead of choosing a single function, we sample $b$ functions, compute their gradients, and compute the direction based on this. We analyze the complexity of the method and show that it benefits from two speedup effects. First, we prove that as long as $b$ is below a certain threshold, we can reach any predefined accuracy with less overall work than without mini-batching. Second, our mini-batching scheme admits a simple parallel implementation, and hence is suitable for further acceleration by parallelization.

Contextual policy search allows adapting robotic movement primitives to different situations. For instance, a locomotion primitive might be adapted to different terrain inclinations or desired walking speeds. Such an adaptation is often achievable by modifying a small number of hyperparameters. However, learning, when performed on real robotic systems, is typically restricted to a small number of trials. Bayesian optimization has recently been proposed as a sample-efficient means for contextual policy search that is well suited under these conditions. In this work, we extend entropy search, a variant of Bayesian optimization, such that it can be used for active contextual policy search where the agent selects those tasks during training in which it expects to learn the most. Empirical results in simulation suggest that this allows learning successful behavior with less trials.

Numerous applications in data mining and machine learning require recovering a matrix of minimal rank. Robust principal component analysis (RPCA) is a general framework for handling this kind of problems. Nuclear norm based convex surrogate of the rank function in RPCA is widely investigated. Under certain assumptions, it can recover the underlying true low rank matrix with high probability. However, those assumptions may not hold in real-world applications. Since the nuclear norm approximates the rank by adding all singular values together, which is essentially a $\ell_1$-norm of the singular values, the resulting approximation error is not trivial and thus the resulting matrix estimator can be significantly biased. To seek a closer approximation and to alleviate the above-mentioned limitations of the nuclear norm, we propose a nonconvex rank approximation. This approximation to the matrix rank is tighter than the nuclear norm. To solve the associated nonconvex minimization problem, we develop an efficient augmented Lagrange multiplier based optimization algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms in both accuracy and efficiency.

Rapid development of mobile devices has led to an explosive growth of user-generated images and videos, which creates a demand for computational understanding of visual media content. In addition to recognition of objective content, such as objects and scenes, an important dimension of video content analysis is the understanding of emotional or affective content, i.e. estimating the emotional impact of the video on a viewer. Emotional content can strongly resonate with viewers and plays a crucial role in the videowatching experience. Some successes have been achieved with the use of deep-learning architectures trained for text at both sentence-and document-level [40] or image sentiment analysis [8]. However, the ability to understand emotions from video, to a large extent, remains an unsolved problem. Analysis of emotional content in video has many realworld applications. Video recommendation services can benefit from matching user interests with the emotions of video content and prediction of interestingness [20], [21], [36], leading to improved user satisfaction. Better understanding of video emotions may enable advertising that is consistent with the main video's mood and help avoid social inappropriateness such as placing a funny advertisement alongside a funeral video. Video summarization [68] and coding [60] can also benefit from understanding emotions, since an accurate summary should keep the emotional content conveyed by the original video.

Causal terminology is often introduced in the interpretation of encoding and decoding models trained on neuroimaging data. In this article, we investigate which causal statements are warranted and which ones are not supported by empirical evidence. We argue that the distinction between encoding and decoding models is not sufficient for this purpose: relevant features in encoding and decoding models carry a different meaning in stimulus- and in response-based experimental paradigms. We show that only encoding models in the stimulus-based setting support unambiguous causal interpretations. By combining encoding and decoding models trained on the same data, however, we obtain insights into causal relations beyond those that are implied by each individual model type. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our theoretical findings on EEG data recorded during a visuo-motor learning task.

We introduce normalized nonnegative models (NNM) for explorative data analysis. NNMs are partial convexifications of models from probability theory. We demonstrate their value at the example of item recommendation. We show that NNM-based recommender systems satisfy three criteria that all recommender systems should ideally satisfy: high predictive power, computational tractability, and expressive representations of users and items. Expressive user and item representations are important in practice to succinctly summarize the pool of customers and the pool of items. In NNMs, user representations are expressive because each user's preference can be regarded as normalized mixture of preferences of stereotypical users. The interpretability of item and user representations allow us to arrange properties of items (e.g., genres of movies or topics of documents) or users (e.g., personality traits) hierarchically.

We study parameter estimation and asymptotic inference for sparse nonlinear regression. More specifically, we assume the data are given by $y = f( x^\top \beta^* ) + \epsilon$, where $f$ is nonlinear. To recover $\beta^*$, we propose an $\ell_1$-regularized least-squares estimator. Unlike classical linear regression, the corresponding optimization problem is nonconvex because of the nonlinearity of $f$. In spite of the nonconvexity, we prove that under mild conditions, every stationary point of the objective enjoys an optimal statistical rate of convergence. In addition, we provide an efficient algorithm that provably converges to a stationary point. We also access the uncertainty of the obtained estimator. Specifically, based on any stationary point of the objective, we construct valid hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for the low dimensional components of the high-dimensional parameter $\beta^*$. Detailed numerical results are provided to back up our theory.