Green security — protection of forests, fish and wildlife — is a critical problem in environmental sustainability. We focus on the problem  of  optimizing the defense of forests againstillegal logging, where often we are faced with the challenge of teaming up many different groups,  from national police to forest guards to NGOs, each with differing capabilities and costs. This paper introduces a new, yet fundamental problem: SimultaneousOptimization of Resource Teams and Tactics (SORT).  SORT contrasts with most previous game-theoretic research for green security — in particular based onsecurity games — that has solely focused on optimizing patrolling tactics, without consideration of team formation or coordination.  We develop new models and scalable algorithms to apply SORT towards illegal logging in large forest areas. We evaluate our methods on a variety of synthetic examples, as well as a real-world case study using data from our on-going collaboration in Madagascar .

Sensor selection has become an active topic aimed at energy saving, information overload prevention, and communication cost planning in sensor networks. In many real applications, often the sensors' observation regions have overlaps and thus the sensor network is inherently redundant. Therefore it is important to select proper sensors to avoid data redundancy. This paper focuses on how to incrementally select a subset of sensors in a streaming scenario to minimize information redundancy, and meanwhile meet the power consumption constraint. We propose to perform sensor selection in a multi-variate interpolation framework, such that the data sampled by the selected sensors can well predict those of the inactive sensors. Importantly, we incorporate sensors' spatial information as two regularizers, which leads to significantly better prediction performance. We also define a statistical variable to store sufficient information for incremental learning, and introduce a forgetting factor to track sensor streams' evolvement. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Moreover, our method is over 10 times faster than the state-of-the-art sensor selection algorithm.

With rapid population growth and urbanization, emergency services in various cities around the world worry that the current transportation infrastructure is no longer adequate for large-scale evacuations. This paper considers how to mitigate this issue through infrastructure upgrades, such as the additions of lanes to road segments and the raising of bridges and roads. The paper proposes a MIP model for deciding the most effective infrastructure upgrades as well as a Benders decomposition approach where the master problem jointly plans the upgrades and evacuation routes and the subproblem schedules the evacuation itself. Experimental results demonstrate the practicability of the approach on a real case study, filling a significant need for emergencies services.

We address the problem of robust decision making for stochastic network design. Our work is motivated by spatial conservation planning where the goal is to take management decisions within a fixed budget to maximize the expected spread of a population of species over a network of land parcels. Most previous work for this problem assumes that accurate estimates of different network parameters (edge activation probabilities, habitat suitability scores) are available, which is an unrealistic assumption. To address this shortcoming, we assume that network parameters are only partially known, specified via interval bounds. We then develop a decision making approach that computes the solution with minimax regret. We provide new theoretical results regarding the structure of the minmax regret solution which help develop a computationally efficient approach. Empirically, we show that previous approaches that work on point estimates of network parameters result in high regret on several standard benchmarks, while our approach provides significantly more robust solutions.

We present a new perspective on the classical shortest path routing (SPR) problem in graphs. We show that the SPR problem can be recast to that of probabilistic inference in a mixture of simple Bayesian networks. Maximizing the likelihood in this mixture becomes equivalent to solving the SPR problem. We develop the well known Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the SPR problem that maximizes the likelihood, and show that it does not get stuck in a locally optimal solution. Using the same probabilistic framework, we then address an NP-Hard network design problem where the goal is to repair a network of roads post some disaster within a fixed budget such that the connectivity between a set of nodes is optimized. We show that our likelihood maximization approach using the EM algorithm scales well for this problem taking the form of message-passing among nodes of the graph, and provides significantly better quality solutions than a standard mixed-integer programming solver.

The Hierarchical Graph-Coupled Hidden Markov Model (hGCHMM) is a useful tool for tracking and predicting the spread of contagious diseases, such as influenza, by leveraging social contact data collected from individual wearable devices. However, the existing inference algorithms depend on the assumption that the infection rates are small in probability, typically close to 0. The purpose of this paper is to build a unified learning framework for latent infection state estimation for the hGCHMM, regardless of the infection rate and transition function. We derive our algorithm based on a dynamic auto-encoding variational inference scheme, thus potentially generalizing the hGCHMM to models other than those that work on highly contagious diseases. We experimentally compare our approach with previous Gibbs EM algorithms and standard variational method mean-field inference, on both semi-synthetic data and app collected epidemiological and social records.

Statistical modeling of local precipitation involves understanding local, regional and global factors informative of precipitation variability in a region. Modern machine learning methods for feature selection can potentially be explored for identifying statistically significant features from pool of potential predictors of precipitation. In this work, we consider sparse regression, which simultaneously performs feature selection and regression, followed by random permutation tests for selecting dominant factors. We consider average winter precipitation over Great Lakes Region in order to identify its dominant influencing factors.Experiments show that global climate indices, computed at different temporal lags, offer predictive information for winter precipitation. Further, among the dominant factors identified using randomized permutation tests, multiple climate indices indicate the influence of geopotential height patterns on winter precipitation.Using composite analysis, we illustrate that certain patterns are indeed typical in high and low precipitation years, and offer plausible scientific reasons for variations in precipitation.Thus, feature selection methods can be useful in identifying influential climate processes and variables, and thereby provide useful hypotheses over physical mechanisms affecting local precipitation.

Transportation and mobility are central to sustainable urban development, where multiagent-based route guidance is widely applied. Traditional multiagent-based route guidance always seeks LET (least expected travel time) paths. However, drivers usually have specific expectations, i.e., tight or loose deadlines, which may not be all met by LET paths. We thus adopt and extend the probability tail model that aims to maximize the probability of reaching destinations before deadlines. Specifically, we propose a decentralized multiagent approach, where infrastructure agents locally collect intentions of concerned vehicle agents and formulate route guidance as a route assignment problem, to guarantee their arrival on time. Experimental results on real road networks justify its ability to increase the chance of arrival on time.

In electricity markets, the choice of the right pricing regime is crucial for the utilities because the price they charge to their consumers, in anticipation of their demand in real-time, is a key determinant of their profits and ultimately their survival in competitive energy markets. Among the existing pricing regimes, in this paper, we consider ex-ante dynamic pricing schemes as (i) they help to address the peak demand problem (a crucial problem in smart grids), and (ii) they are transparent and fair to consumers as the cost of electricity can be calculated before the actual consumption. In particular, we propose an axiomatic framework that establishes the conceptual underpinnings of the class of ex-ante dynamic pricing schemes. We first propose five key axioms that reflect the criteria that are vital for energy utilities and their relationship with consumers. We then prove an impossibility theorem to show that there is no pricing regime that satisfies all the five axioms simultaneously. We also study multiple cost functions arising from various pricing regimes to examine the subset of axioms that they satisfy. We believe that our proposed framework in this paper is first of its kind to evaluate the class of ex-ante dynamic pricing schemes in a manner that can be operationalised by energy utilities.

Understanding speed and travel-time dynamics in response to various city related events is an important and challenging problem. Sensor data (numerical) containing average speed of vehicles passing through a road link can be interpreted in terms of traffic related incident reports from city authorities and social media data (textual), providing a complementary understanding of traffic dynamics. State-of-the-art research is focused on either analyzing sensor observations or citizen observations; we seek to exploit both in a synergistic manner. We demonstrate the role of domain knowledge in capturing the non-linearity of speed and travel-time dynamics by segmenting speed and travel-time observations into simpler components amenable to description using linear models such as Linear Dynamical System (LDS). Specifically, we propose Restricted Switching Linear Dynamical System (RSLDS) to model normal speed and travel time dynamics and thereby characterize anomalous dynamics. We utilize the city traffic events extracted from text to explain anomalous dynamics. We present a large scale evaluation of the proposed approach on a real-world traffic and twitter dataset collected over a year with promising results.