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Unfolding Temporal Dynamics: Predicting Social Media Popularity Using Multi-scale Temporal Decomposition

AAAI Conferences

Time information plays a crucial role on social media popularity. Existing research on popularity prediction, effective though, ignores temporal information which is highly related to user-item associations and thus often results in limited success. An essential way is to consider all these factors (user, item, and time), which capture the dynamic nature of photo popularity. In this paper, we present a novel approach to factorize the popularity into user-item context and time-sensitive context for exploring the mechanism of dynamic popularity. The user-item context provides a holistic view of popularity, while the time-sensitive context captures the temporal dynamics nature of popularity. Accordingly, we develop two kinds of time-sensitive features, including user activeness variability and photo prevalence variability. To predict photo popularity, we propose a novel framework named Multi-scale Temporal Decomposition (MTD), which decomposes the popularity matrix in latent spaces based on contextual associations. Specifically, the proposed MTD models time-sensitive context on different time scales, which is beneficial to automatically learn temporal patterns. Based on the experiments conducted on a real-world dataset with 1.29M photos from Flickr, our proposed MTD can achieve the prediction accuracy of 79.8% and outperform the best three state-of-the-art methods with a relative improvement of 9.6% on average.


Column-Oriented Datalog Materialization for Large Knowledge Graphs

AAAI Conferences

The evaluation of Datalog rules over large Knowledge Graphs (KGs) is essential for many applications. In this paper, we present a new method of materializing Datalog inferences, which combines a column-based memory layout with novel optimization methods that avoid redundant inferences at runtime. The pro-active caching of certain subqueries further increases efficiency. Our empirical evaluation shows that this approach can often match or even surpass the performance of state-of-the-art systems, especially under restricted resources.


ClaimEval: Integrated and Flexible Framework for Claim Evaluation Using Credibility of Sources

AAAI Conferences

The World Wide Web (WWW) has become a rapidly growing platform consisting of numerous sources which provide supporting or contradictory information about claims (e.g., "Chicken meat is healthy"). In order to decide whether a claim is true or false, one needs to analyze content of different sources of information on the Web, measure credibility of information sources, and aggregate all these information. This is a tedious process and the Web search engines address only part of the overall problem, viz., producing only a list of relevant sources. In this paper, we present ClaimEval, a novel and integrated approach which given a set of claims to validate, extracts a set of pro and con arguments from the Web information sources, and jointly estimates credibility of sources and correctness of claims. ClaimEval uses Probabilistic Soft Logic (PSL), resulting in a flexible and principled framework which makes it easy to state and incorporate different forms of prior-knowledge. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate ClaimEvalโ€™s capability in determining validity of a set of claims, resulting in improved accuracy compared to state-of-the-art baselines.


Capturing Semantic Correlation for Item Recommendation in Tagging Systems

AAAI Conferences

The popularity of tagging systems provides a great opportunity to improve the performance of item recommendation. Although existing approaches use topic modeling to mine the semantic information of items by grouping the tags labelled for items, they overlook an important property that tags link users and items as a bridge. Thus these methods cannot deal with the data sparsity without commonly rated items (DS-WO-CRI) problem, limiting their recommendation performance. Towards solving this challenging problem, we propose a novel tag and rating based collaborative filtering (CF) model for item recommendation, which first uses topic modeling to mine the semantic information of tags for each user and for each item respectively, and then incorporates the semantic information into matrix factorization to factorize rating information and to capture the bridging feature of tags and ratings between users and items.As a result, our model captures the semantic correlation between users and items, and is able to greatly improve recommendation performance, especially in DS-WO-CRI situations.Experiments conducted on two popular real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed model significantly outperforms the conventional CF approach, the state-of-the-art social relation based CF approach, and the state-of-the-art topic modeling based CF approaches in terms of both precision and recall, and it is an effective approach to the DS-WO-CRI problem.


On the Minimum Differentially Resolving Set Problem for Diffusion Source Inference in Networks

AAAI Conferences

In this paper we theoretically study the minimum Differentially Resolving Set (DRS) problem derived from the classical sensor placement optimization problem in network source locating. A DRS of a graph G = ( V, E ) is defined as a subset S โІ V where any two elements in V can be distinguished by their different differential characteristic sets defined on S. The minimum DRS problem aims to find a DRS S in the graph G with minimum total weight ฮฃ vโˆˆS w ( v ). In this paper we establish a group of Integer Linear Programming (ILP) models as the solution. By the weighted set cover theory, we propose an approximation algorithm with the ฮ˜(ln n ) approximability for the minimum DRS problem on general graphs, where n is the graph size.


Predicting ICU Mortality Risk by Grouping Temporal Trends from a Multivariate Panel of Physiologic Measurements

AAAI Conferences

ICU mortality risk prediction may help clinicians take effective interventions to improve patient outcome. Existing machine learning approaches often face challenges in integrating a comprehensive panel of physiologic variables and presenting to clinicians interpretable models. We aim to improve both accuracy and interpretability of prediction models by introducing Subgraph Augmented Non-negative Matrix Factorization (SANMF) on ICU physiologic time series. SANMF converts time series into a graph representation and applies frequent subgraph mining to automatically extract temporal trends. We then apply non-negative matrix factorization to group trends in a way that approximates patient pathophysiologic states. Trend groups are then used as features in training a logistic regression model for mortality risk prediction, and are also ranked according to their contribution to mortality risk. We evaluated SANMF against four empirical models on the task of predicting mortality or survival 30 days after discharge from ICU using the observed physiologic measurements between 12 and 24 hours after admission. SANMF outperforms all comparison models, and in particular, demonstrates an improvement in AUC (0.848 vs. 0.827, p<0.002) compared to a state-of-the-art machine learning method that uses manual feature engineering. Feature analysis was performed to illuminate insights and benefits of subgraph groups in mortality risk prediction.


Inferring Multi-Dimensional Ideal Points for US Supreme Court Justices

AAAI Conferences

In Supreme Court parlance and the political science literature, an ideal point positions a justice in a continuous space and can be interpreted as a quantification of the justice's policy preferences. We present an automated approach to infer such ideal points for justices of the US Supreme Court. This approach combines topic modeling over case opinions with the voting (and endorsing) behavior of justices. Furthermore, given a topic of interest, say the Fourth Amendment, the topic model can be optionally seeded with supervised information to steer the inference of ideal points. Application of this methodology over five years of cases provides interesting perspectives into the leaning of justices on crucial issues, coalitions underlying specific topics, and the role of swing justices in deciding the outcomes of cases.


Ad Auctions and Cascade Model: GSP Inefficiency and Algorithms

AAAI Conferences

The design of the best economic mechanism for Sponsored Search Auctions (SSAs) is a central task in computational mechanism design/game theory. Two open questions concern (i) the adoption of user models more accurate than the currently used one and (ii) the choice between Generalized Second Price auction (GSP) and Vickreyโ€“Clarkโ€“Groves mechanism (VCG). In this paper, we provide some contributions to answer these questions. We study Price of Anarchy (PoA) and Price of Stability (PoS) over social welfare and auctioneerโ€™s revenue of GSP w.r.t. the VCG when the users follow the famous cascade model. Furthermore, we provide exact, randomized, and approximate algorithms, showing that in realโ€“world settings (Yahoo! Webscope A3 dataset, 10 available slots) optimal allocations can be found in less than 1s with up to 1,000 ads, and can be approximated in less than 20ms even with more than 1,000 ads with an average accuracy greater than 99%.


Architectural Mechanisms for Situated Natural Language Understanding in Uncertain and Open Worlds

AAAI Conferences

Chai et al. present a greedy As natural language capable robots and other agents become algorithm which uses a subset of the Givenness Hierarchy more commonplace, the ability for these agents to understand to resolve a wide array of referential expressions, but this truly natural human speech is becoming increasingly approach operates under a closed-world assumption (Chai, important. What is more, these agents must be able to understand Prasov, and Qu 2006). Kollar, Tellex et al. present Generalized truly natural human speech in realistic scenarios, Grounding Graphs, which instantiate probabilistic in which an agent may not have full certainty in its knowledge graphical models based on the structure of incoming NL utterances, of its environment, and in which an agent may not have and use those models to resolve references (Tellex full knowledge of the entities contained in its environment.


Direct Discriminative Bag Mapping for Multi-Instance Learning

AAAI Conferences

Multi-instance learning (MIL) is useful for tackling labeling ambiguity in learning tasks, by allowing a bag of instances to share one label. Recently, bag mapping methods, which transform a bag to a single instance in a new space via instance selection, have drawn significant attentions. To date, most existing works are developed based on the original space, i.e., utilizing all instances for bag mapping, and instance selection is indirectly tied to the MIL objective. As a result, it is hard to guarantee the distinguish capacity of the selected instances in the new bag mapping space for MIL. In this paper, we propose a direct discriminative mapping approach for multi-instance learning (MILDM), which identifies instances to directly distinguish bags in the new mapping space. Experiments and comparisons on real-world learning tasks demonstrate the algorithm performance.