Deciding effective and timely preventive measures against complex social problems affecting relatively low income geographies is a difficult challenge. There is a strong need to adopt intelligent automation based solutions with low cost imprints to tackle these problems at larger scales. Starting with the hypothesis that analytical modelling and analysis of social phenomena with high accuracy is in general inherently hard, in this paper we propose design framework to enable data-driven machine learning based adaptive solution approach towards enabling more effective preventive measures. We use survey data collected from a socio-economically backward region of India about adolescent girls to illustrate the design approach.

We introduce the Mondrian kernel, a fast random feature approximation to the Laplace kernel. It is suitable for both batch and online learning, and admits a fast kernel-width-selection procedure as the random features can be re-used efficiently for all kernel widths. The features are constructed by sampling trees via a Mondrian process [Roy and Teh, 2009], and we highlight the connection to Mondrian forests [Lakshminarayanan et al., 2014], where trees are also sampled via a Mondrian process, but fit independently. This link provides a new insight into the relationship between kernel methods and random forests.

The difficulty of multi-class classification generally increases with the number of classes. Using data from a subset of the classes, can we predict how well a classifier will scale with an increased number of classes? Under the assumption that the classes are sampled exchangeably, and under the assumption that the classifier is generative (e.g. QDA or Naive Bayes), we show that the expected accuracy when the classifier is trained on $k$ classes is the $k-1$st moment of a \emph{conditional accuracy distribution}, which can be estimated from data. This provides the theoretical foundation for performance extrapolation based on pseudolikelihood, unbiased estimation, and high-dimensional asymptotics. We investigate the robustness of our methods to non-generative classifiers in simulations and one optical character recognition example.

Migration crisis, climate change or tax havens: Global challenges need global solutions. But agreeing on a joint approach is difficult without a common ground for discussion. Public spheres are highly segmented because news are mainly produced and received on a national level. Gain- ing a global view on international debates about important issues is hindered by the enormous quantity of news and by language barriers. Media analysis usually focuses only on qualitative re- search. In this position statement, we argue that it is imperative to pool methods from machine learning, journalism studies and statistics to help bridging the segmented data of the international public sphere, using the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) as a case study.

Recently, mobile operators in many developing economies have launched "Mobile Money" platforms that deliver basic financial services over the mobile phone network. While many believe that these services can improve the lives of the poor, a consistent difficulty has been identifying individuals most likely to benefit from access to the new technology. Here, we combine terabyte-scale data from three different mobile phone operators from Ghana, Pakistan, and Zambia, to better understand the behavioral determinants of mobile money adoption. Our supervised learning models provide insight into the best predictors of adoption in three very distinct cultures. We find that models fit on one population fail to generalize to another, and in general are highly context-dependent. These findings highlight the need for a nuanced approach to understanding the role and potential of financial services for the poor.

With the rapid growth of crowdsourcing platforms it has become easy and relatively inexpensive to collect a dataset labeled by multiple annotators in a short time. However due to the lack of control over the quality of the annotators, some abnormal annotators may be affected by position bias which can potentially degrade the quality of the final consensus labels. In this paper we introduce a statistical framework to model and detect annotator's position bias in order to control the false discovery rate (FDR) without a prior knowledge on the amount of biased annotators - the expected fraction of false discoveries among all discoveries being not too high, in order to assure that most of the discoveries are indeed true and replicable. The key technical development relies on some new knockoff filters adapted to our problem and new algorithms based on the Inverse Scale Space dynamics whose discretization is potentially suitable for large scale crowdsourcing data analysis. Our studies are supported by experiments with both simulated examples and real-world data. The proposed framework provides us a useful tool for quantitatively studying annotator's abnormal behavior in crowdsourcing data arising from machine learning, sociology, computer vision, multimedia, etc.

A major challenge for building statistical models in the big data era is that the available data volume may exceed the computational capability. A common approach to solve this problem is to employ a subsampled dataset that can be handled by the available computational resources. In this paper, we propose a general subsampling scheme for large-scale multi-class logistic regression, and examine the variance of the resulting estimator. We show that asymptotically, the proposed method always achieves a smaller variance than that of the uniform random sampling. Moreover, when the classes are conditional imbalanced, significant improvement over uniform sampling can be achieved. Empirical performance of the proposed method is compared to other methods on both simulated and real-world datasets, and these results match and confirm our theoretical analysis.

L. Schwaller · S. Robin Abstract We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout time. We demonstrate that it is possible to perform exact Bayesian inference whenever one considers a simple class of undirected graphs called spanning trees as possible structures. We are then able to integrate on the graph and segmentation spaces at the same time by combining classical dynamic programming with algebraic results pertaining to spanning trees. In particular, we show that quantities such as posterior distributions for change-points or posterior edge probabilities over time can efficiently be obtained. We illustrate our results on both synthetic and experimental data arising from biology and neuroscience. Keywords change-point detection, exact Bayesian inference, graphical model, multivariate time-series, spanning tree 1 Introduction We are interested in time-series data where several variables are observed throughout time. An assumption often made in multivariate settings is that there exists an underlying network describing the dependences between the different variables. When modelling time-series data, one is faced with a choice: shall this network be considered stationary or not? Taking the example of genomic data, it might for instance be un-L. This network might slowly evolve, or undergo abrupt changes leading to the initialisation of new morphological development stages in the organism of interest. Here, we focus our interest on the second scenario. The inference of the dependence structure ruling a multivariate time-series was first performed under the assumption that this structure was stationary ( e.g.

In this paper, we propose a general collaborative sparse representation framework for multi-sensor classification, which takes into account the correlations as well as complementary information between heterogeneous sensors simultaneously while considering joint sparsity within each sensor's observations. We also robustify our models to deal with the presence of sparse noise and low-rank interference signals. Specifically, we demonstrate that incorporating the noise or interference signal as a low-rank component in our models is essential in a multi-sensor classification problem when multiple co-located sources/sensors simultaneously record the same physical event. We further extend our frameworks to kernelized models which rely on sparsely representing a test sample in terms of all the training samples in a feature space induced by a kernel function. A fast and efficient algorithm based on alternative direction method is proposed where its convergence to an optimal solution is guaranteed. Extensive experiments are conducted on several real multi-sensor data sets and results are compared with the conventional classifiers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Artificial neural networks are powerful models, which have been widely applied into many aspects of machine translation, such as language modeling and translation modeling. Though notable improvements have been made in these areas, the reordering problem still remains a challenge in statistical machine translations. In this paper, we present a novel neural reordering model that directly models word pairs and their alignment. Further by utilizing LSTM recurrent neural networks, much longer context could be learned for reordering prediction. Experimental results on NIST OpenMT12 Arabic-English and Chinese-English 1000-best rescoring task show that our LSTM neural reordering feature is robust, and achieves significant improvements over various baseline systems. 1 Introduction In statistical machine translation, the language model, translation model, and reordering model are the three most important components.