Deep fundamental factor models are developed to interpret and capture non-linearity, interaction effects and non-parametric shocks in financial econometrics. Uncertainty quantification provides interpretability with interval estimation, ranking of factor importances and estimation of interaction effects. Estimating factor realizations under either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic error is also available. With no hidden layers we recover a linear factor model and for one or more hidden layers, uncertainty bands for the sensitivity to each input naturally arise from the network weights. To illustrate our methodology, we construct a six-factor model of assets in the S\&P 500 index and generate information ratios that are three times greater than generalized linear regression. We show that the factor importances are materially different from the linear factor model when accounting for non-linearity. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research

Recently, deep neural networks have significant progress and successful application in various fields, but they are found vulnerable to attack instances, e.g., adversarial examples. State-of-art attack methods can generate attack images by adding small perturbation to the source image. These attack images can fool the classifier but have little impact to human. Therefore, such attack instances are difficult to generate by searching the feature space. How to design an effective and robust generating method has become a spotlight. Inspired by adversarial examples, we propose two novel generative models to produce adaptive attack instances directly, in which conditional generative adversarial network is adopted and distinctive strategy is designed for training. Compared with the common method, such as Fast Gradient Sign Method, our models can reduce the generating cost and improve robustness and has about one fifth running time for producing attack instance.

The "double descent" risk curve was proposed by Belkin, Hsu, Ma, and Mandal [Bel 18] to qualitatively describe the out-of-sample prediction performance of several variably-parameterized machine learning models. This risk curve reconciles the classical bias-variance tradeoff with the behavior of predictive models that interpolate training data, as observed for several model families (including neural networks) in a wide variety of applications [BO98; AS17; Spi 18; Bel 18]. In these studies, a predictive model with p parameters is fit to a training sample of size n, and the test risk (i.e., out-of-sample error) is examined as a function of p. When p is below the sample size n, the test risk is governed by the usual bias-variance decomposition. As p is increased towards n, the training risk (i.e., in-sample error) is driven to zero, but the test risk shoots up towards infinity.

We introduce exact macroscopic on-line learning dynamics of two-layer neural networks with ReLU units in the form of a system of differential equations, using techniques borrowed from statistical physics. For the first experiments, numerical solutions reveal similar behavior compared to sigmoidal activation researched in earlier work. In these experiments the theoretical results show good correspondence with simulations. In ove-rrealizable and unrealizable learning scenarios, the learning behavior of ReLU networks shows distinctive characteristics compared to sigmoidal networks.

This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the context of reinforcement learning where it was used to predict a large number of signals at different timescales. In the second half of this report, we apply the algorithms to historical weather data in order to evaluate their suitability to forecast a local weather trend. Our experiments did not identify one clearly preferable method, but rather show that choosing an appropriate algorithm depends on the available side information. For slowly varying signals and a proficient number of training samples, Nexting achieved good results in the studied cases.

As reinforcement learning agents are tasked with solving more challenging and diverse tasks, the ability to incorporate prior knowledge into the learning system and to exploit reusable structure in solution space is likely to become increasingly important. The KL-regularized expected reward objective constitutes one possible tool to this end. It introduces an additional component, a default or prior behavior, which can be learned alongside the policy and as such partially transforms the reinforcement learning problem into one of behavior modelling. In this work we consider the implications of this framework in cases where both the policy and default behavior are augmented with latent variables. We discuss how the resulting hierarchical structures can be used to implement different inductive biases and how their modularity can benefit transfer. Empirically we find that they can lead to faster learning and transfer on a range of continuous control tasks.

This paper proposes an autoregressive (AR) model for sequences of graphs, which generalises traditional AR models. A first novelty consists in formalising the AR model for a very general family of graphs, characterised by a variable topology, and attributes associated with nodes and edges. A graph neural network (GNN) is also proposed to learn the AR function associated with the graph-generating process (GGP), and subsequently predict the next graph in a sequence. The proposed method is compared with four baselines on synthetic GGPs, denoting a significantly better performance on all considered problems.

We propose spatially-adaptive normalization, a simple but effective layer for synthesizing photorealistic images given an input semantic layout. Previous methods directly feed the semantic layout as input to the deep network, which is then processed through stacks of convolution, normalization, and nonlinearity layers. We show that this is suboptimal as the normalization layers tend to ``wash away'' semantic information. To address the issue, we propose using the input layout for modulating the activations in normalization layers through a spatially-adaptive, learned transformation. Experiments on several challenging datasets demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over existing approaches, regarding both visual fidelity and alignment with input layouts. Finally, our model allows user control over both semantic and style as synthesizing images. Code will be available at https://github.com/NVlabs/SPADE .

Exploration in sparse reward reinforcement learning remains a difficult open challenge. Many state-of-the-art methods use intrinsic motivation to complement the sparse extrinsic reward signal, giving the agent more opportunities to receive feedback during exploration. Most commonly, these signals are added as bonus rewards, which results in the mixture policy faithfully conducting neither exploration nor task fulfillment for an extended amount of time. In this paper, we instead learn separate intrinsic and extrinsic task policies and schedule between these different drives to accelerate exploration and stabilize learning. Moreover, we introduce a new type of intrinsic reward denoted as successor feature control (SFC), which is general and not task-specific. It takes into account statistics over complete trajectories and thus differs from previous methods that only use local information to evaluate intrinsic motivation. We evaluate our proposed scheduled intrinsic drive (SID) agent using three different environments with pure visual inputs: VizDoom, DeepMind Lab and OpenAI Gym classic control from pixels. The results show a greatly improved exploration efficiency with SFC and the hierarchical usage of the intrinsic drives. A video of our experimental results can be found at https://youtu.be/4ZHcBo7006Y.

Federated learning obtains a central model on the server by aggregating models trained locally on clients. As a result, federated learning does not require clients to upload their data to the server, thereby preserving the data privacy of the clients. One challenge in federated learning is to reduce the client-server communication since the end devices typically have very limited communication bandwidth. This paper presents an enhanced federated learning technique by proposing a synchronous learning strategy on the clients and a temporally weighted aggregation of the local models on the server. In the asynchronous learning strategy, different layers of the deep neural networks are categorized into shallow and deeps layers and the parameters of the deep layers are updated less frequently than those of the shallow layers. Furthermore, a temporally weighted aggregation strategy is introduced on the server to make use of the previously trained local models, thereby enhancing the accuracy and convergence of the central model. The proposed algorithm is empirically on two datasets with different deep neural networks. Our results demonstrate that the proposed asynchronous federated deep learning outperforms the baseline algorithm both in terms of communication cost and model accuracy.