Affective states have a critical role in driving performance and safety. They can degrade driver situation awareness and negatively impact cognitive processes, severely diminishing road safety. Therefore, detecting and assessing drivers' affective states is crucial in order to help improve the driving experience, and increase safety, comfort and well-being. Recent advances in affective computing have enabled the detection of such states. This may lead to empathic automotive user interfaces that account for the driver's emotional state and influence the driver in order to improve safety. In this work, we propose a multiview multi-task machine learning method for the detection of driver's affective states using physiological signals. The proposed approach is able to account for inter-drive variability in physiological responses while enabling interpretability of the learned models, a factor that is especially important in systems deployed in the real world. We evaluate the models on three different datasets containing real-world driving experiences. Our results indicate that accounting for drive-specific differences significantly improves model performance.

Ages in ocean sediment cores are often inferred using either benthic ${\delta}^{18}{\rm{O}}$ or planktonic ${}^{14}{\rm{C}}$ of foraminiferal calcite. Existing probabilistic dating methods infer ages in two distinct approaches: ages are either inferred directly using radionuclides, e.g. Bacon [Blaauw and Christen (2011)]; or indirectly based on the alignment of records, e.g. HMM-Match [Lin et al. (2014)]. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm for integrating these two approaches by constructing Dual Proxy Gaussian Process (DPGP) stacks, which represent a probabilistic model of benthic ${\delta}^{18}{\rm{O}}$ change (and its timing) based on a set of cores. While a previous stack construction algorithm, HMM-Match, uses a discrete age inference model based on Hidden Markov models (HMMs) [Durbin et al. (1998)] and requires a number of records enough to sufficiently cover all its ages, DPGP stacks with time-varying variances are constructed with continuous ages obtained by particle smoothing [Doucet et al. (2001); Klaas et al. (2006)] and Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [Peters (2008)] algorithms, and can be derived from a small number of records by applying the Gaussian process regression [Rasmussen and Williams (2005)]. As an example of the stacking method, we construct a local stack from 6 cores in the deep northeastern Atlantic Ocean and compare it to a deterministically constructed ${\delta}^{18}{\rm{O}}$ stack of 58 cores from the deep North Atlantic [Lisiecki and Stern (2016)]. We also provide two examples of how dual proxy alignment ages can be inferred by aligning additional cores to the stack.

A latent function decomposition method is proposed for forecasting the capacity of lithium-ion battery cells. The method uses the Multi-Output Gaussian Process, a generative machine learning framework for multi-task and transfer learning. The MCGP decomposes the available capacity trends from multiple battery cells into latent functions. The latent functions are then convolved over kernel smoothers to reconstruct and/or forecast capacity trends of the battery cells. Besides the high prediction accuracy the proposed method possesses, it provides uncertainty information for the predictions and captures nontrivial cross-correlations between capacity trends of different battery cells. These two merits make the proposed MCGP a very reliable and practical solution for applications that use battery cell packs. The MCGP is derived and compared to benchmark methods on an experimental lithium-ion battery cells data. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Although the methods of bagging and random forests are some of the most widely used prediction methods, relatively little is known about their algorithmic convergence. In particular, there are not many theoretical guarantees for deciding when an ensemble is "large enough" --- so that its accuracy is close to that of an ideal infinite ensemble. Due to the fact that bagging and random forests are randomized algorithms, the choice of ensemble size is closely related to the notion of "algorithmic variance" (i.e. the variance of prediction error due only to the training algorithm). In the present work, we propose a bootstrap method to estimate this variance for bagging, random forests, and related methods in the context of classification. To be specific, suppose the training dataset is fixed, and let the random variable $Err_t$ denote the prediction error of a randomized ensemble of size $t$. Working under a "first-order model" for randomized ensembles, we prove that the centered law of $Err_t$ can be consistently approximated via the proposed method as $t\to\infty$. Meanwhile, the computational cost of the method is quite modest, by virtue of an extrapolation technique. As a consequence, the method offers a practical guideline for deciding when the algorithmic fluctuations of $Err_t$ are negligible.

Quantile regression is a tool for learning conditional distributions. In this paper we study quantile regression in the setting where a protected attribute is unavailable when fitting the model. This can lead to "unfair'' quantile estimators for which the effective quantiles are very different for the subpopulations defined by the protected attribute. We propose a procedure for adjusting the estimator on a heldout sample where the protected attribute is available. The main result of the paper is an empirical process analysis showing that the adjustment leads to a fair estimator for which the target quantiles are brought into balance, in a statistical sense that we call $\sqrt{n}$-fairness. We illustrate the ideas and adjustment procedure on a dataset of 200,000 live births, where the objective is to characterize the dependence of the birth weights of the babies on demographic attributes of the birth mother; the protected attribute is the mother's race.

Mode decomposition is a prototypical pattern recognition problem that can be addressed from the (a priori distinct) perspectives of numerical approximation, statistical inference and deep learning. Could its analysis through these combined perspectives be used as a Rosetta stone for deciphering mechanisms at play in deep learning? Motivated by this question we introduce programmable and interpretable regression networks for pattern recognition and address mode decomposition as a prototypical problem. The programming of these networks is achieved by assembling elementary modules decomposing and recomposing kernels and data. These elementary steps are repeated across levels of abstraction and interpreted from the equivalent perspectives of optimal recovery, game theory and Gaussian process regression (GPR). The prototypical mode/kernel decomposition module produces an optimal approximation $(w_1,w_2,\cdots,w_m)$ of an element $(v_1,v_2,\ldots,v_m)$ of a product of Hilbert subspaces of a common Hilbert space from the observation of the sum $v:=v_1+\cdots+v_m$. The prototypical mode/kernel recomposition module performs partial sums of the recovered modes $w_i$ based on the alignment between each recovered mode $w_i$ and the data $v$. We illustrate the proposed framework by programming regression networks approximating the modes $v_i= a_i(t)y_i\big(\theta_i(t)\big)$ of a (possibly noisy) signal $\sum_i v_i$ when the amplitudes $a_i$, instantaneous phases $\theta_i$ and periodic waveforms $y_i$ may all be unknown and show near machine precision recovery under regularity and separation assumptions on the instantaneous amplitudes $a_i$ and frequencies $\dot{\theta}_i$. The structure of some of these networks share intriguing similarities with convolutional neural networks while being interpretable, programmable and amenable to theoretical analysis.

Multimorbidity, or the presence of several medical conditions in the same individual, have been increasing in the population both in absolute and relative terms. However, multimorbidity remains poorly understood, and the evidence from existing research to describe its burden, determinants and consequences have been limited. Many of these studies are often cross-sectional and do not explicitly account for multimorbidity patterns' evolution over time. Some studies were based on small datasets, used arbitrary or narrow age range, or lacked appropriate clinical validations. In this study, we applied Non-negative Matrix Factorisation (NMF) in a novel way to one of the largest electronic health records (EHR) databases in the world (with 4 million patients), for simultaneously modelling disease clusters and their role in one's multimorbidity over time. Furthermore, we demonstrated how the temporal characteristics that our model associates with each disease cluster can help mine disease trajectories/networks and generate new hypotheses for the formation of multimorbidity clusters as a function of time/ageing. Our results suggest that our method's ability to learn the underlying dynamics of diseases can provide the field with a novel data-driven / exploratory way of learning the patterns of multimorbidity and their interactions over time.

There have been many examples of clustering multivariate (i.e., two-way) data using finite mixture models (see, e.g., reviews by Fraley and Raftery, 2002; Bouveyron and Brunet-Saumard, 2014; McNicholas, 2016b). More recently, there have been some notable examples of clustering threeway data using finite mixtures of matrix-variate distributions (e.g., Viroli, 2011; Anderlucci et al., 2015; Gallaugher and McNicholas, 2018a). This work on clustering three-way data is timely in the sense that the variety of data that require clustering continues to increase. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that this need ends with three-way data. An approach for clustering multi-way data is introduced based on a finite mixture of multidimensional arrays. While some might refer to such structures as'tensors', and so write about clustering tensor-variate data, we prefer the nomenclature multidimensional array to avoid confusion with the term'tensor' as used in engineering and physics, e.g., tensor fields.

Autoencoder-based geometric shaping is proposed that includes optimizing bit mappings. Up to 0.2 bits/QAM symbol gain in GMI is achieved for a variety of data rates and in the presence of transceiver impairments. The gains can be harvested with standard binary FEC at no cost w.r.t.

Most known regret bounds for reinforcement learning are either episodic or assume an environment without traps. We derive a regret bound without making either assumption, by allowing the algorithm to occasionally delegate an action to an external advisor. We thus arrive at a setting of active one-shot model-based reinforcement learning that we call DRL (delegative reinforcement learning.) The algorithm we construct in order to demonstrate the regret bound is a variant of Posterior Sampling Reinforcement Learning supplemented by a subroutine that decides which actions should be delegated. The algorithm is not anytime, since the parameters must be adjusted according to the target time discount. Currently, our analysis is limited to Markov decision processes with finite numbers of hypotheses, states and actions.