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Anomaly Detection in High-Dimensional Bank Account Balances via Robust Methods
Maddanu, Federico, Proietti, Tommaso, Crupi, Riccardo
Detecting point anomalies in bank account balances is essential for financial institutions, as it enables the identification of potential fraud, operational issues, or other irregularities. Robust statistics is useful for flagging outliers and for providing estimates of the data distribution parameters that are not affected by contaminated observations. However, such a strategy is often less efficient and computationally expensive under high dimensional setting. In this paper, we propose and evaluate empirically several robust approaches that may be computationally efficient in medium and high dimensional datasets, with high breakdown points and low computational time. Our application deals with around 2.6 million daily records of anonymous users' bank account balances.
"As Eastern Powers, I will veto." : An Investigation of Nation-level Bias of Large Language Models in International Relations
Choi, Jonghyeon, Choi, Yeonjun, Kim, Hyun-chul, Jang, Beakcheol
This paper systematically examines nation-level biases exhibited by Large Language Models (LLMs) within the domain of International Relations (IR). Leveraging historical records from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), we developed a bias evaluation framework comprising three distinct tests to explore nation-level bias in various LLMs, with a particular focus on the five permanent members of the UNSC. Experimental results show that, even with the general bias patterns across models (e.g., favorable biases toward the western nations, and unfavorable biases toward Russia), these still vary based on the LLM. Notably, even within the same LLM, the direction and magnitude of bias for a nation change depending on the evaluation context. This observation suggests that LLM biases are fundamentally multidimensional, varying across models and tasks. We also observe that models with stronger reasoning abilities show reduced bias and better performance. Building on this finding, we introduce a debiasing framework that improves LLMs' factual reasoning combining Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Reflexion-based self-reflection techniques. Experiments show it effectively reduces nation-level bias, and improves performance, particularly in GPT-4o-mini and LLama-3.3-70B. Our findings emphasize the need to assess nation-level bias alongside performance when applying LLMs in the IR domain.
Tractable Weighted First-Order Model Counting with Bounded Treewidth Binary Evidence
Kลฏla, Vรกclav, Kuang, Qipeng, Wang, Yuyi, Wang, Yuanhong, Kuลพelka, Ondลej
The Weighted First-Order Model Counting Problem (WFOMC) asks to compute the weighted sum of models of a given first-order logic sentence over a given domain. Conditioning WFOMC on evidence -- fixing the truth values of a set of ground literals -- has been shown impossible in time polynomial in the domain size (unless $\mathsf{\#P \subseteq FP}$) even for fragments of logic that are otherwise tractable for WFOMC without evidence. In this work, we address the barrier by restricting the binary evidence to the case where the underlying Gaifman graph has bounded treewidth. We present a polynomial-time algorithm in the domain size for computing WFOMC for the two-variable fragments $\text{FO}^2$ and $\text{C}^2$ conditioned on such binary evidence. Furthermore, we show the applicability of our algorithm in combinatorial problems by solving the stable seating arrangement problem on bounded-treewidth graphs of bounded degree, which was an open problem. We also conducted experiments to show the scalability of our algorithm compared to the existing model counting solvers.
Conformal Prediction for Multi-Source Detection on a Network
Jian, Xingchao, Zhang, Purui, Tian, Lan, Ji, Feng, Liang, Wenfei, Tay, Wee Peng, Wen, Bihan, Krahmer, Felix
Detecting the origin of information or infection spread in networks is a fundamental challenge with applications in misinformation tracking, epidemiology, and beyond. We study the multi-source detection problem: given snapshot observations of node infection status on a graph, estimate the set of source nodes that initiated the propagation. Existing methods either lack statistical guarantees or are limited to specific diffusion models and assumptions. We propose a novel conformal prediction framework that provides statistically valid recall guarantees for source set detection, independent of the underlying diffusion process or data distribution. Our approach introduces principled score functions to quantify the alignment between predicted probabilities and true sources, and leverages a calibration set to construct prediction sets with user-specified recall and coverage levels. The method is applicable to both single- and multi-source scenarios, supports general network diffusion dynamics, and is computationally efficient for large graphs. Empirical results demonstrate that our method achieves rigorous coverage with competitive accuracy, outperforming existing baselines in both reliability and scalability.The code is available online.
SpeechJudge: Towards Human-Level Judgment for Speech Naturalness
Zhang, Xueyao, Wang, Chaoren, Liao, Huan, Li, Ziniu, Wang, Yuancheng, Wang, Li, Jia, Dongya, Chen, Yuanzhe, Li, Xiulin, Chen, Zhuo, Wu, Zhizheng
Aligning large generative models with human feedback is a critical challenge. In speech synthesis, this is particularly pronounced due to the lack of a large-scale human preference dataset, which hinders the development of models that truly align with human perception. To address this, we introduce SpeechJudge, a comprehensive suite comprising a dataset, a benchmark, and a reward model centered on naturalness--one of the most fundamental subjective metrics for speech synthesis. First, we present SpeechJudge-Data, a large-scale human feedback corpus of 99K speech pairs. The dataset is constructed using a diverse set of advanced zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) models across diverse speech styles and multiple languages, with human annotations for both intelligibility and naturalness preference. From this, we establish SpeechJudge-Eval, a challenging benchmark for speech naturalness judgment. Our evaluation reveals that existing metrics and AudioLLMs struggle with this task; the leading model, Gemini-2.5-Flash, achieves less than 70% agreement with human judgment, highlighting a significant gap for improvement. To bridge this gap, we develop SpeechJudge-GRM, a generative reward model (GRM) based on Qwen2.5-Omni-7B. It is trained on SpeechJudge-Data via a two-stage post-training process: Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) with Chain-of-Thought rationales followed by Reinforcement Learning (RL) with GRPO on challenging cases. On the SpeechJudge-Eval benchmark, the proposed SpeechJudge-GRM demonstrates superior performance, achieving 77.2% accuracy (and 79.4% after inference-time scaling @10) compared to a classic Bradley-Terry reward model (72.7%). Furthermore, SpeechJudge-GRM can be also employed as a reward function during the post-training of speech generation models to facilitate their alignment with human preferences.
DeepPersona: A Generative Engine for Scaling Deep Synthetic Personas
Wang, Zhen, Zhou, Yufan, Luo, Zhongyan, Ye, Lyumanshan, Wood, Adam, Yao, Man, Mansour, Saab, Pan, Luoshang
Simulating human profiles by instilling personas into large language models (LLMs) is rapidly transforming research in agentic behavioral simulation, LLM personalization, and human-AI alignment. However, most existing synthetic personas remain shallow and simplistic, capturing minimal attributes and failing to reflect the rich complexity and diversity of real human identities. We introduce DEEPPERSONA, a scalable generative engine for synthesizing narrative-complete synthetic personas through a two-stage, taxonomy-guided method. First, we algorithmically construct the largest-ever human-attribute taxonomy, comprising over hundreds of hierarchically organized attributes, by mining thousands of real user-ChatGPT conversations. Second, we progressively sample attributes from this taxonomy, conditionally generating coherent and realistic personas that average hundreds of structured attributes and roughly 1 MB of narrative text, two orders of magnitude deeper than prior works. Intrinsic evaluations confirm significant improvements in attribute diversity (32 percent higher coverage) and profile uniqueness (44 percent greater) compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Extrinsically, our personas enhance GPT-4.1-mini's personalized question answering accuracy by 11.6 percent on average across ten metrics and substantially narrow (by 31.7 percent) the gap between simulated LLM citizens and authentic human responses in social surveys. Our generated national citizens reduced the performance gap on the Big Five personality test by 17 percent relative to LLM-simulated citizens. DEEPPERSONA thus provides a rigorous, scalable, and privacy-free platform for high-fidelity human simulation and personalized AI research.
Improving Region Representation Learning from Urban Imagery with Noisy Long-Caption Supervision
Zhang, Yimei, Shen, Guojiang, Ning, Kaili, Ren, Tongwei, Qiu, Xuebo, Wang, Mengmeng, Kong, Xiangjie
Region representation learning plays a pivotal role in urban computing by extracting meaningful features from unlabeled urban data. Analogous to how perceived facial age reflects an individual's health, the visual appearance of a city serves as its "portrait", encapsulating latent socio-economic and environmental characteristics. Recent studies have explored leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to incorporate textual knowledge into imagery-based urban region representation learning. However, two major challenges remain: i) difficulty in aligning fine-grained visual features with long captions, and ii) suboptimal knowledge incorporation due to noise in LLM-generated captions. To address these issues, we propose a novel pre-training framework called UrbanLN that improves Urban region representation learning through Long-text awareness and Noise suppression. Specifically, we introduce an information-preserved stretching interpolation strategy that aligns long captions with fine-grained visual semantics in complex urban scenes. To effectively mine knowledge from LLM-generated captions and filter out noise, we propose a dual-level optimization strategy. At the data level, a multi-model collaboration pipeline automatically generates diverse and reliable captions without human intervention. At the model level, we employ a momentum-based self-distillation mechanism to generate stable pseudo-targets, facilitating robust cross-modal learning under noisy conditions. Extensive experiments across four real-world cities and various downstream tasks demonstrate the superior performance of our UrbanLN.
SAD-Flower: Flow Matching for Safe, Admissible, and Dynamically Consistent Planning
Huang, Tzu-Yuan, Lederer, Armin, Wu, Dai-Jie, Dai, Xiaobing, Zhang, Sihua, Sosnowski, Stefan, Sun, Shao-Hua, Hirche, Sandra
Flow matching (FM) has shown promising results in data-driven planning. However, it inherently lacks formal guarantees for ensuring state and action constraints, whose satisfaction is a fundamental and crucial requirement for the safety and admissibility of planned trajectories on various systems. Moreover, existing FM planners do not ensure the dynamical consistency, which potentially renders trajectories inexecutable. We address these shortcomings by proposing SAD-Flower, a novel framework for generating Safe, Admissible, and Dynamically consistent trajectories. Our approach relies on an augmentation of the flow with a virtual control input. Thereby, principled guidance can be derived using techniques from nonlinear control theory, providing formal guarantees for state constraints, action constraints, and dynamic consistency. Crucially, SAD-Flower operates without retraining, enabling test-time satisfaction of unseen constraints. Through extensive experiments across several tasks, we demonstrate that SAD-Flower outperforms various generative-model-based baselines in ensuring constraint satisfaction.
Evaluating Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Trade-offs Between Graph Neural Networks and Foundation Models
Gupta, Ragini, Raina, Naman, Chen, Bo, Chen, Li, Danilov, Claudiu, Eckhardt, Josh, Bernard, Keyshla, Nahrstedt, Klara
Modern IoT deployments for environmental sensing produce high volume spatiotemporal data to support downstream tasks such as forecasting, typically powered by machine learning models. While existing filtering and strategic deployment techniques optimize collected data volume at the edge, they overlook how variations in sampling frequencies and spatial coverage affect downstream model performance. In many forecasting models, incorporating data from additional sensors denoise predictions by providing broader spatial contexts. This interplay between sampling frequency, spatial coverage and different forecasting model architectures remain underexplored. This work presents a systematic study of forecasting models - classical models (VAR), neural networks (GRU, Transformer), spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs), and time series foundation models (TSFMs: Chronos Moirai, TimesFM) under varying spatial sensor nodes density and sampling intervals using real-world temperature data in a wireless sensor network. Our results show that STGNNs are effective when sensor deployments are sparse and sampling rate is moderate, leveraging spatial correlations via encoded graph structure to compensate for limited coverage. In contrast, TSFMs perform competitively at high frequencies but degrade when spatial coverage from neighboring sensors is reduced. Crucially, the multivariate TSFM Moirai outperforms all models by natively learning cross-sensor dependencies. These findings offer actionable insights for building efficient forecasting pipelines in spatio-temporal systems. All code for model configurations, training, dataset, and logs are open-sourced for reproducibility: https://github.com/UIUC-MONET-Projects/Benchmarking-Spatiotemporal-Forecast-Models
Addressing divergent representations from causal interventions on neural networks
Grant, Satchel, Han, Simon Jerome, Tartaglini, Alexa R., Potts, Christopher
A common approach to mechanistic interpretability is to causally manipulate model representations via targeted interventions in order to understand what those representations encode. Here we ask whether such interventions create out-of-distribution (divergent) representations, and whether this raises concerns about how faithful their resulting explanations are to the target model in its natural state. First, we demonstrate theoretically and empirically that common causal intervention techniques often do shift internal representations away from the natural distribution of the target model. Then, we provide a theoretical analysis of two cases of such divergences: "harmless" divergences that occur in the behavioral null-space of the layer(s) of interest, and "pernicious" divergences that activate hidden network pathways and cause dormant behavioral changes. Finally, in an effort to mitigate the pernicious cases, we apply and modify the Counterfactual Latent (CL) loss from Grant (2025) allowing representations from causal interventions to remain closer to the natural distribution, reducing the likelihood of harmful divergences while preserving the interpretive power of the interventions. Together, these results highlight a path towards more reliable interpretability methods.