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Universal Approximation Theorems
The universal approximation theorem established the density of specific families of neural networks in the space of continuous functions and in certain Bochner spaces, defined between any two Euclidean spaces. We extend and refine this result by proving that there exist dense neural network architectures on a larger class of function spaces and that these architectures may be written down using only a small number of functions. We prove that upon appropriately randomly selecting the neural networks architecture's activation function we may still obtain a dense set of neural networks, with positive probability. This result is used to overcome the difficulty of appropriately selecting an activation function in more exotic architectures. Conversely, we show that given any neural network architecture on a set of continuous functions between two T0 topological spaces, there exists a unique finest topology on that set of functions which makes the neural network architecture into a universal approximator. Several examples are considered throughout the paper.
A Machine Learning Model for Long-Term Power Generation Forecasting at Bidding Zone Level
Moschella, Michela, Tucci, Mauro, Crisostomi, Emanuele, Betti, Alessandro
--The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and more recently many statistical or machine learning algorithms, and data-driven methods in general, are becoming subject of intense research. While generally the power research community focuses on power forecasting at the level of single plants, in a short future horizon of time, in this time we are interested in aggregated macro-area power generation (i.e., in a territory of size greater than 100000 km Real data are used to validate the proposed forecasting methodology on a test set of several months. A. Motivations As the penetration level of Renewable Energy (RE) sources is growing worldwide to meet ever tightening sustainability goals [1], the intermittent and uncertain nature of RE is posing increasing challenges to efficiently manage a power grid, eventually endangering its own stability. In this context, the availability of accurate forecasts of power generation from RE may mitigate the impact of the increasing penetration level and improve the operation of power systems [2].
Peer Loss Functions: Learning from Noisy Labels without Knowing Noise Rates
Learning with noisy labels is a common problem in supervised learning. Existing approaches require practitioners to specify \emph{noise rates}, i.e., a set of parameters controlling the severity of label noises in the problem. In this work, we introduce a technique to learn from noisy labels that does not require a priori specification of the noise rates. In particular, we introduce a new family of loss functions that we name as \emph{peer loss} functions. Our approach then uses a standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework with peer loss functions. Peer loss functions associate each training sample with a certain form of "peer" samples, which evaluate a classifier' predictions jointly. We show that, under mild conditions, performing ERM with peer loss functions on the noisy dataset leads to the optimal or a near optimal classifier as if performing ERM over the clean training data, which we do not have access to. To our best knowledge, this is the first result on "learning with noisy labels without knowing noise rates" with theoretical guarantees. We pair our results with an extensive set of experiments, where we compare with state-of-the-art techniques of learning with noisy labels. Our results show that peer loss functions based method consistently outperforms the baseline benchmarks. Peer loss provides a way to simplify model development when facing potentially noisy training labels, and can be promoted as a robust candidate loss function in such situations.
Random forest model identifies serve strength as a key predictor of tennis match outcome
Gao, Zijian, Kowalczyk, Amanda
Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as well as the growth of machine learning methods for use in sports analytics. Of particular interest to bettors and betting companies alike is potential use of sports records to predict tennis match outcomes prior to match start. We compiled, cleaned, and used the largest database of tennis match information to date to predict match outcome using fairly simple machine learning methods. Using such methods allows for rapid fit and prediction times to readily incorporate new data and make real-time predictions. We were able to predict match outcomes with upwards of 80% accuracy, much greater than predictions using betting odds alone, and identify serve strength as a key predictor of match outcome. By combining prediction accuracies from three models, we were able to nearly recreate a probability distribution based on average betting odds from betting companies, which indicates that betting companies are using similar information to assign odds to matches. These results demonstrate the capability of relatively simple machine learning models to quite accurately predict tennis match outcomes.
Deep learning for Chemometric and non-translational data
Larsen, Jacob Søgaard, Clemmensen, Line
We propose a novel method to train deep convolutional neural networks which learn from multiple data sets of varying input sizes through weight sharing. This is an advantage in chemometrics where individual measurements represent exact chemical compounds and thus signals cannot be translated or resized without disturbing their interpretation. Our approach show superior performance compared to transfer learning when a medium sized and a small data set are trained together. While we observe a small improvement compared to individual training when two medium sized data sets are trained together, in particular through a reduction in the variance.
Sim-to-Real Transfer of Robot Learning with Variable Length Inputs
Dasagi, Vibhavari, Lee, Robert, Mou, Serena, Bruce, Jake, Sünderhauf, Niko, Leitner, Jürgen
Current end-to-end deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches require jointly learning perception, decision-making and low-level control from very sparse reward signals and high-dimensional inputs, with little capability of incorporating prior knowledge. This results in prohibitively long training times for use on real-world robotic tasks. Existing algorithms capable of extracting task-level representations from high-dimensional inputs, e.g. object detection, often produce outputs of varying lengths, restricting their use in RL methods due to the need for neural networks to have fixed length inputs. In this work, we propose a framework that combines deep sets encoding, which allows for variable-length abstract representations, with modular RL that utilizes these representations, decoupling high-level decision making from low-level control. We successfully demonstrate our approach on the robot manipulation task of object sorting, showing that this method can learn effective policies within mere minutes of highly simplified simulation. The learned policies can be directly deployed on a robot without further training, and generalize to variations of the task unseen during training.
Knowledge-based Biomedical Data Science 2019
Callahan, Tiffany J., Pielke-Lombardo, Harrison, Tripodi, Ignacio J., Hunter, Lawrence E.
Knowledge-based biomedical data science (KBDS) involves the design and implementation of computer systems that act as if they knew about biomedicine. Such systems depend on formally represented knowledge in computer systems, often in the form of knowledge graphs. Here we survey the progress in the last year in systems that use formally represented knowledge to address data science problems in both clinical and biological domains, as well as on approaches for creating knowledge graphs. Major themes include the relationships between knowledge graphs and machine learning, the use of natural language processing, and the expansion of knowledge-based approaches to novel domains, such as Chinese Traditional Medicine and biodiversity.
Alternating Recurrent Dialog Model with Large-scale Pre-trained Language Models
Wu, Qingyang, Zhang, Yichi, Li, Yu, Yu, Zhou
Existing dialog system models require extensive human annotations and are difficult to generalize to different tasks. The recent success of large pre-trained language models such as BERT and GPT -2 (Devlin et al., 2019; Radford et al., 2019) have suggested the effectiveness of incorporating language priors in downstream NLP tasks. However, how much pre-trained language models can help dialog response generation is still under exploration. In this paper, we propose a simple, general, and effective framework: Alternating Recurrent Dialog Model (ARDM). ARDM models each speaker separately and takes advantage of the large pre-trained language model. It requires no supervision from human annotations such as belief states or dialog acts to achieve effective conversations. ARDM outperforms or is on par with state-of-the-art methods on two popular task-oriented dialog datasets: CamRest676 and MultiWOZ. Moreover, we can generalize ARDM to more challenging, non-collaborative tasks such as persuasion. In persuasion tasks, ARDM is capable of generating humanlike responses to persuade people to donate to a charity. It has been a longstanding ambition for artificial intelligence researchers to create an intelligent conversational agent that can generate humanlike responses. Recently data-driven dialog models are more and more popular. However, most current state-of-the-art approaches still rely heavily on extensive annotations such as belief states and dialog acts (Lei et al., 2018). However, dialog content can vary considerably in different dialog tasks. Having a different intent or dialog act annotation scheme for each task is costly. For some tasks, it is even impossible, such as open-domain social chat. Thus, it is difficult to utilize these methods on challenging dialog tasks, such as persuasion and negotiation, where dialog states and acts are difficult to annotate.
Model-based Reinforcement Learning for Predictions and Control for Limit Order Books
Wei, Haoran, Wang, Yuanbo, Mangu, Lidia, Decker, Keith
We build a profitable electronic trading agent with Reinforcement Learning that places buy and sell orders in the stock market. An environment model is built only with historical observational data, and the RL agent learns the trading policy by interacting with the environment model instead of with the real-market to minimize the risk and potential monetary loss. Trained in unsupervised and self-supervised fashion, our environment model learned a temporal and causal representation of the market in latent space through deep neural networks. We demonstrate that the trading policy trained entirely within the environment model can be transferred back into the real market and maintain its profitability. We believe that this environment model can serve as a robust simulator that predicts market movement as well as trade impact for further studies.
Multiple-objective Reinforcement Learning for Inverse Design and Identification
Wei, Haoran, Olarte, Mariefel, Goh, Garrett B.
The aim of the inverse chemical design is to develop new molecules with given optimized molecular properties or objectives. Recently, generative deep learning (DL) networks are considered as the state-of-the-art in inverse chemical design and have achieved early success in generating molecular structures with desired properties in the pharmaceutical and material chemistry fields. However, satisfying a large number (larger than 10 objectives) of molecular objectives is a limitation of current generative models. To improve the model's ability to handle a large number of molecule design objectives, we developed a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based generative framework to optimize chemical molecule generation. Our use of Curriculum Learning (CL) to fine-tune the pre-trained generative network allowed the model to satisfy up to 21 objectives and increase the generative network's robustness. The experiments show that the proposed multiple-objective RL-based generative model can correctly identify unknown molecules with an 83 to 100 percent success rate, compared to the baseline approach of 0 percent. Additionally, this proposed generative model is not limited to just chemistry research challenges; we anticipate that problems that utilize RL with multiple-objectives will benefit from this framework.