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Leveraging Asynchronous Cross-border Market Data for Improved Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting in European Markets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate short-term electricity price forecasting is crucial for strategically scheduling demand and generation bids in day-ahead markets. While data-driven techniques have shown considerable prowess in achieving high forecast accuracy in recent years, they rely heavily on the quality of input covariates. In this paper, we investigate whether asynchronously published prices as a result of differing gate closure times (GCTs) in some bidding zones can improve forecasting accuracy in other markets with later GCTs. Using a state-of-the-art ensemble of models, we show significant improvements of 22% and 9% in forecast accuracy in the Belgian (BE) and Swedish bidding zones (SE3) respectively, when including price data from interconnected markets with earlier GCT (Germany-Luxembourg, Austria, and Switzerland). This improvement holds for both general as well as extreme market conditions. Our analysis also yields further important insights: frequent model recalibration is necessary for maximum accuracy but comes at substantial additional computational costs, and using data from more markets does not always lead to better performance - a fact we delve deeper into with interpretability analysis of the forecast models. Overall, these findings provide valuable guidance for market participants and decision-makers aiming to optimize bidding strategies within increasingly interconnected and volatile European energy markets.


Robust and Modular Multi-Limb Synchronization in Motion Stack for Space Robots with Trajectory Clamping via Hypersphere

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modular robotics holds immense potential for space exploration, where reliability, repairability, and reusability are critical for cost-effective missions. Coordination between heterogeneous units is paramount for precision tasks -- whether in manipulation, legged locomotion, or multi-robot interaction. Such modular systems introduce challenges far exceeding those in monolithic robot architectures. This study presents a robust method for synchronizing the trajectories of multiple heterogeneous actuators, adapting dynamically to system variations with minimal system knowledge. This design makes it inherently robot-agnostic, thus highly suited for modularity. To ensure smooth trajectory adherence, the multidimensional state is constrained within a hypersphere representing the allowable deviation. The distance metric can be adapted hence, depending on the task and system under control, deformation of the constraint region is possible. This approach is compatible with a wide range of robotic platforms and serves as a core interface for Motion-Stack, our new open-source universal framework for limb coordination (available at https://github.com/2lian/Motion-Stack ). The method is validated by synchronizing the end-effectors of six highly heterogeneous robotic limbs, evaluating both trajectory adherence and recovery from significant external disturbances.


Data-driven Insights for Informed Decision-Making: Applying LSTM Networks for Robust Electricity Forecasting in Libya

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate electricity forecasting is crucial for grid stability and energy planning, especially in Benghazi, Libya, where frequent load shedding, generation deficits, and infrastructure limitations persist. This study proposes a data-driven approach to forecast electricity load, generation, and deficits for 2025 using historical data from 2019 (a year marked by instability) and 2023 (a more stable year). Multiple time series models were applied, including ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, dynamic regression ARIMA, exponential smoothing, extreme gradient boosting, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. The dataset was enhanced through missing value imputation, outlier smoothing, and log transformation. Performance was assessed using mean squared error, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. LSTM outperformed all other models, showing strong capabilities in modeling non-stationary and seasonal patterns. A key contribution of this work is an optimized LSTM framework that integrates exogenous factors such as temperature and humidity, offering robust performance in forecasting multiple electricity indicators. These results provide practical insights for policymakers and grid operators to enable proactive load management and resource planning in data-scarce, volatile regions.


Dual-Objective Reinforcement Learning with Novel Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Formulations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hard constraints in reinforcement learning (RL) often degrade policy performance. Lagrangian methods offer a way to blend objectives with constraints, but require intricate reward engineering and parameter tuning. In this work, we extend recent advances that connect Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) equations with RL to propose two novel value functions for dual-objective satisfaction. Namely, we address: 1) the Reach-Always-Avoid (RAA) problem -- of achieving distinct reward and penalty thresholds -- and 2) the Reach-Reach (RR) problem -- of achieving thresholds of two distinct rewards. In contrast with temporal logic approaches, which typically involve representing an automaton, we derive explicit, tractable Bellman forms in this context via decomposition. Specifically, we prove that the RAA and RR problems may be rewritten as compositions of previously studied HJ-RL problems. We leverage our analysis to propose a variation of Proximal Policy Optimization (DOHJ-PPO), and demonstrate that it produces distinct behaviors from previous approaches, outcompeting a number of baselines in success, safety and speed across a range of tasks for safe-arrival and multi-target achievement.


NeuroPhysNet: A FitzHugh-Nagumo-Based Physics-Informed Neural Network Framework for Electroencephalograph (EEG) Analysis and Motor Imagery Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electroencephalography (EEG) is extensively employed in medical diagnostics and brain-computer interface (BCI) applications due to its non-invasive nature and high temporal resolution. However, EEG analysis faces significant challenges, including noise, nonstationarity, and inter-subject variability, which hinder its clinical utility. Traditional neural networks often lack integration with biophysical knowledge, limiting their interpretability, robustness, and potential for medical translation. To address these limitations, this study introduces NeuroPhysNet, a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) framework tailored for EEG signal analysis and motor imagery classification in medical contexts. NeuroPhysNet incorporates the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, embedding neurodynamical principles to constrain predictions and enhance model robustness. Evaluated on the BCIC-IV-2a dataset, the framework achieved superior accuracy and generalization compared to conventional methods, especially in data-limited and cross-subject scenarios, which are common in clinical settings. By effectively integrating biophysical insights with data-driven techniques, NeuroPhysNet not only advances BCI applications but also holds significant promise for enhancing the precision and reliability of clinical diagnostics, such as motor disorder assessments and neurorehabilitation planning.


Path Channels and Plan Extension Kernels: a Mechanistic Description of Planning in a Sokoban RNN

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We partially reverse-engineer a convolutional recurrent neural network (RNN) trained with model-free reinforcement learning to play the box-pushing game Sokoban. We find that the RNN stores future moves (plans) as activations in particular channels of the hidden state, which we call path channels. A high activation in a particular location means that, when a box is in that location, it will get pushed in the channel's assigned direction. We examine the convolutional kernels between path channels and find that they encode the change in position resulting from each possible action, thus representing part of a learned transition model. The RNN constructs plans by starting at the boxes and goals. These kernels extend activations in path channels forwards from boxes and backwards from the goal. Negative values are placed in channels at obstacles. This causes the extension kernels to propagate the negative value in reverse, thus pruning the last few steps and letting an alternative plan emerge; a form of backtracking. Our work shows that, a precise understanding of the plan representation allows us to directly understand the bidirectional planning-like algorithm learned by model-free training in more familiar terms.


Athena: Enhancing Multimodal Reasoning with Data-efficient Process Reward Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present Athena-PRM, a multimodal process reward model (PRM) designed to evaluate the reward score for each step in solving complex reasoning problems. Developing high-performance PRMs typically demands significant time and financial investment, primarily due to the necessity for step-level annotations of reasoning steps. Conventional automated labeling methods, such as Monte Carlo estimation, often produce noisy labels and incur substantial computational costs. To efficiently generate high-quality process-labeled data, we propose leveraging prediction consistency between weak and strong completers as a criterion for identifying reliable process labels. Remarkably, Athena-PRM demonstrates outstanding effectiveness across various scenarios and benchmarks with just 5,000 samples. Furthermore, we also develop two effective strategies to improve the performance of PRMs: ORM initialization and up-sampling for negative data. We validate our approach in three specific scenarios: verification for test time scaling, direct evaluation of reasoning step correctness, and reward ranked fine-tuning. Our Athena-PRM consistently achieves superior performance across multiple benchmarks and scenarios. Notably, when using Qwen2.5-VL-7B as the policy model, Athena-PRM enhances performance by 10.2 points on WeMath and 7.1 points on MathVista for test time scaling. Furthermore, Athena-PRM sets the state-of-the-art (SoTA) results in VisualProcessBench and outperforms the previous SoTA by 3.9 F1-score, showcasing its robust capability to accurately assess the correctness of the reasoning step. Additionally, utilizing Athena-PRM as the reward model, we develop Athena-7B with reward ranked fine-tuning and outperforms baseline with a significant margin on five benchmarks.


SoftStep: Learning Sparse Similarity Powers Deep Neighbor-Based Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neighbor-based methods are a natural alternative to linear prediction for tabular data when relationships between inputs and targets exhibit complexity such as nonlinearity, periodicity, or heteroscedasticity. Yet in deep learning on unstructured data, nonparametric neighbor-based approaches are rarely implemented in lieu of simple linear heads. This is primarily due to the ability of systems equipped with linear regression heads to co-learn internal representations along with the linear head's parameters. To unlock the full potential of neighbor-based methods in neural networks we introduce SoftStep, a parametric module that learns sparse instance-wise similarity measures directly from data. When integrated with existing neighbor-based methods, SoftStep enables regression models that consistently outperform linear heads across diverse architectures, domains, and training scenarios. We focus on regression tasks, where we show theoretically that neighbor-based prediction with a mean squared error objective constitutes a metric learning algorithm that induces well-structured embedding spaces. We then demonstrate analytically and empirically that this representational structure translates into superior performance when combined with the sparse, instance-wise similarity measures introduced by SoftStep. Beyond regression, SoftStep is a general method for learning instance-wise similarity in deep neural networks, with broad applicability to attention mechanisms, metric learning, representational alignment, and related paradigms.


QA-LIGN: Aligning LLMs through Constitutionally Decomposed QA

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Alignment of large language models (LLMs) with principles like helpfulness, honesty, and harmlessness typically relies on scalar rewards that obscure which objectives drive the training signal. We introduce QA-LIGN, which decomposes monolithic rewards into interpretable principle-specific evaluations through structured natural language programs. Models learn through a draft, critique, and revise pipeline, where symbolic evaluation against the rubrics provides transparent feedback for both initial and revised responses during GRPO training. Applied to uncensored Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, QA-LIGN reduces attack success rates by up to 68.7% while maintaining a 0.67% false refusal rate, achieving Pareto optimal safety-helpfulness performance and outperforming both DPO and GRPO with state-of-the-art reward models given equivalent training. These results demonstrate that making reward signals interpretable and modular improves alignment effectiveness, suggesting transparency enhances LLM safety.


Large language models can learn and generalize steganographic chain-of-thought under process supervision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning not only enhances large language model performance but also provides critical insights into decision-making processes, marking it as a useful tool for monitoring model intent and planning. However, recent works have shown that banning the mention of a specific example of reward hacking causes obfuscation of the undesired reasoning traces but the persistence of the undesired behavior, threatening the reliability of CoT monitoring. We provide an extension to these results with regard to the ability of models to learn a specific type of obfuscated reasoning: steganography. First, we show that penalizing the use of specific strings within load-bearing reasoning traces causes models to substitute alternative strings. Crucially, this does not alter the underlying method by which the model performs the task, demonstrating that the model can learn to steganographically encode its reasoning.We further demonstrate that models can generalize an encoding scheme. When the penalized strings belong to an overarching class, the model learns not only to substitute strings seen in training, but also develops a general encoding scheme for all members of the class which it can apply to held-out testing strings.