The recent wave of AI and automation has been argued to differ from previous General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), in that it may lead to rapid change in occupations' underlying task requirements and persistent technological unemployment. In this paper, we apply a novel methodology of dynamic task shares to a large dataset of online job postings to explore how exactly occupational task demands have changed over the past decade of AI innovation, especially across high, mid and low wage occupations. Notably, big data and AI have risen significantly among high wage occupations since 2012 and 2016, respectively. We built an ARIMA model to predict future occupational task demands and showcase several relevant examples in Healthcare, Administration, and IT. Such task demands predictions across occupations will play a pivotal role in retraining the workforce of the future.

Recent years have been tainted by market practices that continuously expose us, as consumers, to new risks and threats. We have become accustomed, and sometimes even resigned, to businesses monitoring our activities, examining our data, and even meddling with our choices. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often depicted as a weapon in the hands of businesses and blamed for allowing this to happen. In this paper, we envision a paradigm shift, where AI technologies are brought to the side of consumers and their organizations, with the aim of building an efficient and effective counter-power. AI-powered tools can support a massive-scale automated analysis of textual and audiovisual data, as well as code, for the benefit of consumers and their organizations. This in turn can lead to a better oversight of business activities, help consumers exercise their rights, and enable the civil society to mitigate information overload. We discuss the societal, political, and technological challenges that stand before that vision.  This article is part of the special track on AI and Society.

Optimal asset allocation is a key topic in modern finance theory. To realize the optimal asset allocation on investor's risk aversion, various portfolio construction methods have been proposed. Recently, the applications of machine learning are rapidly growing in the area of finance. In this article, we propose the Student's $t$-process latent variable model (TPLVM) to describe non-Gaussian fluctuations of financial timeseries by lower dimensional latent variables. Subsequently, we apply the TPLVM to minimum-variance portfolio as an alternative of existing nonlinear factor models. To test the performance of the proposed portfolio, we construct minimum-variance portfolios of global stock market indices based on the TPLVM or Gaussian process latent variable model. By comparing these portfolios, we confirm the proposed portfolio outperforms that of the existing Gaussian process latent variable model.

We propose a new method for clustering multivariate time-series data based on Dynamic Linear Models. Whereas usual time-series clustering methods obtain static membership parameters, our proposal allows each time-series to dynamically change their cluster memberships over time. In this context, a mixture model is assumed for the time series and a flexible Dirichlet evolution for mixture weights allows for smooth membership changes over time. Posterior estimates and predictions can be obtained through Gibbs sampling, but a more efficient method for obtaining point estimates is presented, based on Stochastic Expectation-Maximization and Gradient Descent. Finally, two applications illustrate the usefulness of our proposed model to model both univariate and multivariate time-series: World Bank indicators for the renewable energy consumption of EU nations and the famous Gapminder dataset containing life-expectancy and GDP per capita for various countries.

Pre-trained models such as BERT are widely used in NLP tasks and are fine-tuned to improve the performance of various NLP tasks consistently. Nevertheless, the fine-tuned BERT model trained on our protocol corpus still has a weak performance on the Entity Linking (EL) task. In this paper, we propose a model that joints a fine-tuned language model with an RFC Domain Model. Firstly, we design a Protocol Knowledge Base as the guideline for protocol EL. Secondly, we propose a novel model, PEL-BERT, to link named entities in protocols to categories in Protocol Knowledge Base. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive study on the performance of pre-trained language models on descriptive texts and abstract concepts. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in EL on our annotated dataset, outperforming all the baselines.

Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of diffusion through the social network? Using graph kernels to extract complex topological information from Twitter cascade structures, we train accurate predictive models that are blind to language, user identities, and time, demonstrating for the first time that such "sanitized" diffusion patterns are highly informative of veracity. Our results indicate that, with proper aggregation, the collective sharing pattern of the crowd may reveal powerful signals of rumor truth or falsehood, even in the early stages of propagation.

Measuring sentence similarity is a classic topic in natural language processing. Light-weighted similarities are still of particular practical significance even when deep learning models have succeeded in many other tasks. Some light-weighted similarities with more theoretical insights have been demonstrated to be even stronger than supervised deep learning approaches. However, the successful light-weighted models such as Word Mover's Distance [Kusner et al., 2015] or Smooth Inverse Frequency [Arora et al., 2017] failed to detect the difference from the structure of sentences, i.e. order of words. To address this issue, we present Recursive Optimal Transport (ROT) framework to incorporate the structural information with the classic OT. Moreover, we further develop Recursive Optimal Similarity (ROTS) for sentences with the valuable semantic insights from the connections between cosine similarity of weighted average of word vectors and optimal transport. ROTS is structural-aware and with low time complexity compared to optimal transport. Our experiments over 20 sentence textural similarity (STS) datasets show the clear advantage of ROTS over all weakly supervised approaches. Detailed ablation study demonstrate the effectiveness of ROT and the semantic insights.

We study unsupervised multilingual alignment, the problem of finding word-to-word translations between multiple languages without using any parallel data. One popular strategy is to reduce multilingual alignment to the much simplified bilingual setting, by picking one of the input languages as the pivot language that we transit through. However, it is well-known that transiting through a poorly chosen pivot language (such as English) may severely degrade the translation quality, since the assumed transitive relations among all pairs of languages may not be enforced in the training process. Instead of going through a rather arbitrarily chosen pivot language, we propose to use the Wasserstein barycenter as a more informative ''mean'' language: it encapsulates information from all languages and minimizes all pairwise transportation costs. We evaluate our method on standard benchmarks and demonstrate state-of-the-art performances.

Much of machine learning relies on the use of large amounts of data to train models to make predictions. When this data comes from multiple sources, for example when evaluation of data against a machine learning model is offered as a service, there can be privacy issues and legal concerns over the sharing of data. Fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) allows data to be computed on whilst encrypted, which can provide a solution to the problem of data privacy. However, FHE is both slow and restrictive, so existing algorithms must be manipu - lated to make them work efficiently under the FHE paradigm. Some commonly used machine learning algorithms, such as Gaussian process regression, are poorly suited to FHE and cannot be manipulated to work both efficiently and accurately. In this paper, we show that a modular approach, which applies FHE to only the sensitive steps of a workflow that need protection, allows one party to make predictions on the ir data using a Gaussian process regression model built from an - other party's data, without either party gaining access to t he other's data, in a way which is both accurate and efficient. This construction is, to our knowledge, the first example of an effectively encrypted Gaussian process.

This paper introduces the Indian Chefs Process (ICP), a Bayesian nonparametric prior on the joint space of infinite directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and orders that generalizes Indian Buffet Processes. As our construction shows, the proposed distribution relies on a latent Beta Process controlling both the orders and outgoing connection probabilities of the nodes, and yields a probability distribution on sparse infinite graphs. The main advantage of the ICP over previously proposed Bayesian nonparametric priors for DAG structures is its greater flexibility. To the best of our knowledge, the ICP is the first Bayesian nonparametric model supporting every possible DAG. We demonstrate the usefulness of the ICP on learning the structure of deep generative sigmoid networks as well as convolutional neural networks.