Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have gained significant attention in recent years, with particularly impressive applications highlighted in computer vision. In this work, we present a Mixture Density Conditional Generative Adversarial Model (MD-CGAN), where the generator is a Gaussian mixture model, with a focus on time series forecasting. Compared to examples in vision, there have been more limited applications of GAN models to time series. We show that our model is capable of estimating a probabilistic posterior distribution over forecasts and that, in comparison to a set of benchmark methods, the MD-CGAN model performs well, particularly in situations where noise is a significant in the time series. Further, by using a Gaussian mixture model that allows for a flexible number of mixture coefficients, the MD-CGAN offers posterior distributions that are non-Gaussian.

We present a deep generative model of question-answer (QA) pairs for machine reading comprehension. We introduce two independent latent random variables into our model in order to diversify answers and questions separately. We also study the effect of explicitly controlling the KL term in the variational lower bound in order to avoid the "posterior collapse" issue, where the model ignores latent variables and generates QA pairs that are almost the same. Our experiments on SQuAD v1.1 showed that variational methods can aid QA pair modeling capacity, and that the controlled KL term can significantly improve diversity while generating high-quality questions and answers comparable to those of the existing systems.

Dexterous manipulation has been a long-standing challenge in robotics. Recently, modern model-free RL has demonstrated impressive results on a number of problems. However, complex domains like dexterous manipulation remain a challenge for RL due to the poor sample complexity. To address this, current approaches employ expert demonstrations in the form of state-action pairs, which are difficult to obtain for real-world settings such as learning from videos. In this work, we move toward a more realistic setting and explore state-only imitation learning. To tackle this setting, we train an inverse dynamics model and use it to predict actions for state-only demonstrations. The inverse dynamics model and the policy are trained jointly. Our method performs on par with state-action approaches and considerably outperforms RL alone. By not relying on expert actions, we are able to learn from demonstrations with different dynamics, morphologies, and objects.

In this paper we introduce the first reinforcement learning (RL) based robotic navigation method which utilizes ultrasound (US) images as an input. Our approach combines state-of-the-art RL techniques, specifically deep Q-networks (DQN) with memory buffers and a binary classifier for deciding when to terminate the task. Our method is trained and evaluated on an in-house collected data-set of 34 volunteers and when compared to pure RL and supervised learning (SL) techniques, it performs substantially better, which highlights the suitability of RL navigation for US-guided procedures. When testing our proposed model, we obtained a 82.91% chance of navigating correctly to the sacrum from 165 different starting positions on 5 different unseen simulated environments.

The imbalanced data classification is one of the most crucial tasks facing modern data analysis. Especially when combined with other difficulty factors, such as the presence of noise, overlapping class distributions, and small disjuncts, data imbalance can significantly impact the classification performance. Furthermore, some of the data difficulty factors are known to affect the performance of the existing oversampling strategies, in particular SMOTE and its derivatives. This effect is especially pronounced in the multi-class setting, in which the mutual imbalance relationships between the classes complicate even further. Despite that, most of the contemporary research in the area of data imbalance focuses on the binary classification problems, while their more difficult multi-class counterparts are relatively unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel oversampling technique, a Multi-Class Combined Cleaning and Resampling (MC-CCR) algorithm. The proposed method utilizes an energy-based approach to modeling the regions suitable for oversampling, less affected by small disjuncts and outliers than SMOTE. It combines it with a simultaneous cleaning operation, the aim of which is to reduce the effect of overlapping class distributions on the performance of the learning algorithms. Finally, by incorporating a dedicated strategy of handling the multi-class problems, MC-CCR is less affected by the loss of information about the inter-class relationships than the traditional multi-class decomposition strategies. Based on the results of experimental research carried out for many multi-class imbalanced benchmark datasets, the high robust of the proposed approach to noise was shown, as well as its high quality compared to the state-of-art methods.

The global expansion of maritime activities and the development of the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have driven the advances in maritime monitoring systems in the last decade. Monitoring vessel behavior is fundamental to safeguard maritime operations, protecting other vessels sailing the ocean and the marine fauna and flora. Given the enormous volume of vessel data continually being generated, real-time analysis of vessel behaviors is only possible because of decision support systems provided with event and anomaly detection methods. However, current works on vessel event detection are ad-hoc methods able to handle only a single or a few predefined types of vessel behavior. Most of the existing approaches do not learn from the data and require the definition of queries and rules for describing each behavior. In this paper, we discuss challenges and opportunities in classical machine learning and deep learning for vessel event and anomaly detection. We hope to motivate the research of novel methods and tools, since addressing these challenges is an essential step towards actual intelligent maritime monitoring systems.

Machine learning algorithms, however effective, are known to be vulnerable in adversarial scenarios where a malicious user may inject manipulated instances. In this work we focus on evasion attacks, where a model is trained in a safe environment and exposed to attacks at test time. The attacker aims at finding a minimal perturbation of a test instance that changes the model outcome. We propose a model-agnostic strategy that builds a robust ensemble by training its basic models on feature-based partitions of the given dataset. Our algorithm guarantees that the majority of the models in the ensemble cannot be affected by the attacker. We experimented the proposed strategy on decision tree ensembles, and we also propose an approximate certification method for tree ensembles that efficiently assess the minimal accuracy of a forest on a given dataset avoiding the costly computation of evasion attacks. Experimental evaluation on publicly available datasets shows that proposed strategy outperforms state-of-the-art adversarial learning algorithms against evasion attacks.

We present for the first time an asymptotic convergence analysis of two time-scale stochastic approximation driven by "controlled" Markov noise. In particular, the faster and slower recursions have non-additive controlled Markov noise components in addition to martingale difference noise. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of our framework by relating it to limiting differential inclusions in both time scales that are defined in terms of the ergodic occupation measures associated with the controlled Markov processes. Using a special case of our results, we present a solution to the off-policy convergence problem for temporal-difference learning with linear function approximation. We compile several aspects of the dynamics of stochastic approximation algorithms with Markov iterate-dependent noise when the iterates are not known to be stable beforehand. We achieve the same by extending the lock-in probability (i.e. the probability of convergence to a specific attractor of the limiting o.d.e. given that the iterates are in its domain of attraction after a sufficiently large number of iterations (say) n_0) framework to such recursions. We use these results to prove almost sure convergence of the iterates to the specified attractor when the iterates satisfy an "asymptotic tightness" condition. This, in turn, is shown to be useful in analyzing the tracking ability of general "adaptive" algorithms. Finally, we obtain the first informative error bounds on function approximation for the policy evaluation algorithm proposed by Basu et al. when the aim is to find the risk-sensitive cost represented using exponential utility. We show that this happens due to the absence of difference term in the earlier bound which is always present in all our bounds when the state space is large.

Learning the latent network structure from large scale multivariate point process data is an important task in a wide range of scientific and business applications. For instance, we might wish to estimate the neuronal functional connectivity network based on spiking times recorded from a collection of neurons. To characterize the complex processes underlying the observed data, we propose a new and flexible class of nonstationary Hawkes processes that allow both excitatory and inhibitory effects. We estimate the latent network structure using an efficient sparse least squares estimation approach. Using a thinning representation, we establish concentration inequalities for the first and second order statistics of the proposed Hawkes process. Such theoretical results enable us to establish the non-asymptotic error bound and the selection consistency of the estimated parameters. Furthermore, we describe a penalized least squares based statistic for testing if the background intensity is constant in time. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method through simulation studies and an application to a neuron spike train data set.

Diagnosing problems in Internet-scale services remains particularly difficult and costly for both content providers and ISPs. Because the Internet is decentralized, the cause of such problems might lie anywhere between an end-user's device and the service datacenters. Further, the set of possible problems and causes is not known in advance, making it impossible in practice to train a classifier with all combinations of problems, causes and locations. In this paper, we explore how different machine learning techniques can be used for Internet-scale root cause analysis using measurements taken from end-user devices. We show how to build generic models that (i) are agnostic to the underlying network topology, (ii) do not require to define the full set of possible causes during training, and (iii) can be quickly adapted to diagnose new services. Our solution, DiagNet, adapts concepts from image processing research to handle network and system metrics. We evaluate DiagNet with a multi-cloud deployment of online services with injected faults and emulated clients with automated browsers. We demonstrate promising root cause analysis capabilities, with a recall of 73.9% including causes only being introduced at inference time.