Autonomous vehicles must be comprehensively evaluated before deployed in cities and highways. Current evaluation procedures lack the abilities of weakness-aiming and evolving, thus they could hardly generate adversarial environments for autonomous vehicles, leading to insufficient challenges. To overcome the shortage of static evaluation methods, this paper proposes a novel method to generate adversarial environments with deep reinforcement learning, and to cluster them with a nonparametric Bayesian method. As a representative task of autonomous driving, lane-change is used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. First, two lane-change models are separately developed by a rule-based method and a learning-based method, waiting for evaluation and comparison. Next, adversarial environments are generated by training surrounding interactive vehicles with deep reinforcement learning for local optimal ensembles. Then, a nonparametric Bayesian approach is utilized to cluster the adversarial policies of the interactive vehicles. Finally, the adversarial environment patterns are illustrated and the performances of two lane-change models are evaluated and compared. The simulation results indicate that both models perform significantly worse in adversarial environments than in naturalistic environments, with plenty of weaknesses successfully extracted in a few tests.

Computer vision algorithms, e.g. for face recognition, favour groups of individuals that are better represented in the training data. This happens because of the generalization that classifiers have to make. It is simpler to fit the majority groups as this fit is more important to overall error. We propose to create a balanced training dataset, consisting of the original dataset plus new data points in which the group memberships are intervened, minorities become majorities and vice versa. We show that current generative adversarial networks are a powerful tool for learning these data points, called contrastive examples. We experiment with the equalized odds bias measure on tabular data as well as image data (CelebA and Diversity in Faces datasets). Contrastive examples allow us to expose correlations between group membership and other seemingly neutral features. Whenever a causal graph is available, we can put those contrastive examples in the perspective of counterfactuals.

In this paper, a regression algorithm based on Green's function theory is proposed and implemented. We first survey Green's function for the Dirichlet boundary value problem of 2nd order linear ordinary differential equation, which is a reproducing kernel of a suitable Hilbert space. We next consider a covariance matrix composed of the normalized Green's function, which is regarded as aprobability density function. By supporting Bayesian approach, the covariance matrix gives predictive distribution, which has the predictive mean $\mu$ and the confidence interval [$\mu$-2s, $\mu$+2s], where s stands for a standard deviation.

In the past twenty years there has been an explosion of the use of graphical models to represent the relationship between a vector of random variables and perform distributed inference which takes advantage of the underlying graphical representations. Bayesian networks (BNs) (Darwiche 2009; Fenton and Neil 2012) are nowadays the most used graphical models, with applications to a wide array of domains and implementation in various software: for instance, the R packages bnlearn by Scutari (2010) and gRain by Højsgaard (2012), among others. However, BNs can only represent symmetric conditional independences which in practical applications may not be fully justified. For this reason, a variety of models that can take into account the asymmetric nature of real-world data have been proposed; for example, context-specific BNs (Boutilier, Friedman, Goldszmidt, and Koller 1996), labeled directed acyclic graphs (Pensar, Nyman, Koski, and Corander 2015) and probabilistic decision graphs (Jaeger, Nielsen, and Silander 2006). Unlike most of its competitors, the chain event graph (CEG) (Collazo, Görgen, and Smith 2018; Smith and Anderson 2008; Riccomagno and Smith 2004, 2009) can capture all (context-specific) conditional independences in a unique graph, obtained by a coalescence over the vertices of an appropriately constructed probability tree, called staged tree.

This article reviews bias-correction models for measurement error of exposure variables in the field of nutritional epidemiology. Measurement error usually attenuates estimated slope towards zero. Due to the influence of measurement error, inference of parameter estimate is conservative and confidence interval of the slope parameter is too narrow. Bias-correction in estimators and confidence intervals are of primary interest. We review the following bias-correction models: regression calibration methods, likelihood based models, missing data models, simulation based methods, nonparametric models and sampling based procedures.

Despite the remarkable performance and generalization levels of deep learning models in a wide range of artificial intelligence tasks, it has been demonstrated that these models can be easily fooled by the addition of imperceptible but malicious perturbations to natural inputs. These altered inputs are known in the literature as adversarial examples. In this paper we propose a novel probabilistic framework to generalize and extend adversarial attacks in order to produce a desired probability distribution for the classes when we apply the attack method to a large number of inputs. This novel attack strategy provides the attacker with greater control over the target model, and increases the complexity of detecting that the model is being attacked. We introduce three different strategies to efficiently generate such attacks, and illustrate our approach extending DeepFool, a state-of-the-art attack algorithm to generate adversarial examples. We also experimentally validate our approach for the spoken command classification task, an exemplary machine learning problem in the audio domain. Our results demonstrate that we can closely approximate any probability distribution for the classes while maintaining a high fooling rate and by injecting imperceptible perturbations to the inputs.

Many important real-world applications involve time-series data with skewed distribution. Compared to conventional imbalance learning problems, the classification of imbalanced time-series data is more challenging due to high dimensionality and high inter-variable correlation. This paper proposes a structure preserving Oversampling method to combat the High-dimensional Imbalanced Time-series classification (OHIT). OHIT first leverages a density-ratio based shared nearest neighbor clustering algorithm to capture the modes of minority class in high-dimensional space. It then for each mode applies the shrinkage technique of large-dimensional covariance matrix to obtain accurate and reliable covariance structure. Finally, OHIT generates the structure-preserving synthetic samples based on multivariate Gaussian distribution by using the estimated covariance matrices. Experimental results on several publicly available time-series datasets (including unimodal and multi-modal) demonstrate the superiority of OHIT against the state-of-the-art oversampling algorithms in terms of F-value, G-mean, and AUC.

We propose a first-order stochastic optimization algorithm incorporating adaptive regularization applicable to machine learning problems in deep learning framework. The adaptive regularization is imposed by stochastic process in determining batch size for each model parameter at each optimization iteration. The stochastic batch size is determined by the update probability of each parameter following a distribution of gradient norms in consideration of their local and global properties in the neural network architecture where the range of gradient norms may vary within and across layers. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm using an image classification task based on conventional network models applied to commonly used benchmark datasets. The quantitative evaluation indicates that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art optimization algorithms in generalization while providing less sensitivity to the selection of batch size which often plays a critical role in optimization, thus achieving more robustness to the selection of regularity.

We study the sequential batch learning problem in linear contextual bandits with finite action sets, where the decision maker is constrained to split incoming individuals into (at most) a fixed number of batches and can only observe outcomes for the individuals within a batch at the batch's end. Compared to both standard online contextual bandits learning or offline policy learning in contexutal bandits, this sequential batch learning problem provides a finer-grained formulation of many personalized sequential decision making problems in practical applications, including medical treatment in clinical trials, product recommendation in e-commerce and adaptive experiment design in crowdsourcing. We study two settings of the problem: one where the contexts are arbitrarily generated and the other where the contexts are \textit{iid} drawn from some distribution. In each setting, we establish a regret lower bound and provide an algorithm, whose regret upper bound nearly matches the lower bound. As an important insight revealed therefrom, in the former setting, we show that the number of batches required to achieve the fully online performance is polynomial in the time horizon, while for the latter setting, a pure-exploitation algorithm with a judicious batch partition scheme achieves the fully online performance even when the number of batches is less than logarithmic in the time horizon. Together, our results provide a near-complete characterization of sequential decision making in linear contextual bandits when batch constraints are present.

We study the problem of learning from aggregate observations where supervision signals are given to sets of instances instead of individual instances, while the goal is still to predict labels of unseen individuals. A well-known example is multiple instance learning (MIL). In this paper, we extend MIL beyond binary classification to other problems such as multiclass classification and regression. We present a probabilistic framework that is applicable to a variety of aggregate observations, e.g., pairwise similarity for classification and mean/difference/rank observation for regression. We propose a simple yet effective method based on the maximum likelihood principle, which can be simply implemented for various differentiable models such as deep neural networks and gradient boosting machines. Experiments on three novel problem settings -- classification via triplet comparison and regression via mean/rank observation indicate the effectiveness of the proposed method.