Observed associations in a database may be due in whole or part to variations in unrecorded (latent) variables. Identifying such variables and their causal relationships with one another is a principal goal in many scientific and practical domains. Previous work shows that, given a partition of observed variables such that members of a class share only a single latent common cause, standard search algorithms for causal Bayes nets can infer structural relations between latent variables. We introduce an algorithm for discovering such partitions when they exist. Uniquely among available procedures, the algorithm is (asymptotically) correct under standard assumptions in causal Bayes net search algorithms, requires no prior knowledge of the number of latent variables, and does not depend on the mathematical form of the relationships among the latent variables. We evaluate the algorithm on a variety of simulated data sets.

The problem of finding a reduced dimensionality representation of categorical variables while preserving their most relevant characteristics is fundamental for the analysis of complex data. Specifically, given a co-occurrence matrix of two variables, one often seeks a compact representation of one variable which preserves information about the other variable. We have recently introduced ``Sufficient Dimensionality Reduction' [GT-2003], a method that extracts continuous reduced dimensional features whose measurements (i.e., expectation values) capture maximal mutual information among the variables. However, such measurements often capture information that is irrelevant for a given task. Widely known examples are illumination conditions, which are irrelevant as features for face recognition, writing style which is irrelevant as a feature for content classification, and intonation which is irrelevant as a feature for speech recognition. Such irrelevance cannot be deduced apriori, since it depends on the details of the task, and is thus inherently ill defined in the purely unsupervised case. Separating relevant from irrelevant features can be achieved using additional side data that contains such irrelevant structures. This approach was taken in [CT-2002], extending the information bottleneck method, which uses clustering to compress the data. Here we use this side-information framework to identify features whose measurements are maximally informative for the original data set, but carry as little information as possible on a side data set. In statistical terms this can be understood as extracting statistics which are maximally sufficient for the original dataset, while simultaneously maximally ancillary for the side dataset. We formulate this tradeoff as a constrained optimization problem and characterize its solutions. We then derive a gradient descent algorithm for this problem, which is based on the Generalized Iterative Scaling method for finding maximum entropy distributions. The method is demonstrated on synthetic data, as well as on real face recognition datasets, and is shown to outperform standard methods such as oriented PCA.

The mean field methods, which entail approximating intractable probability distributions variationally with distributions from a tractable family, enjoy high efficiency, guaranteed convergence, and provide lower bounds on the true likelihood. But due to requirement for model-specific derivation of the optimization equations and unclear inference quality in various models, it is not widely used as a generic approximate inference algorithm. In this paper, we discuss a generalized mean field theory on variational approximation to a broad class of intractable distributions using a rich set of tractable distributions via constrained optimization over distribution spaces. We present a class of generalized mean field (GMF) algorithms for approximate inference in complex exponential family models, which entails limiting the optimization over the class of cluster-factorizable distributions. GMF is a generic method requiring no model-specific derivations. It factors a complex model into a set of disjoint variable clusters, and uses a set of canonical fix-point equations to iteratively update the cluster distributions, and converge to locally optimal cluster marginals that preserve the original dependency structure within each cluster, hence, fully decomposed the overall inference problem. We empirically analyzed the effect of different tractable family (clusters of different granularity) on inference quality, and compared GMF with BP on several canonical models. Possible extension to higher-order MF approximation is also discussed.

We consider the problem of adaptive stratified sampling for Monte Carlo integration of a differentiable function given a finite number of evaluations to the function. We construct a sampling scheme that samples more often in regions where the function oscillates more, while allocating the samples such that they are well spread on the domain (this notion shares similitude with low discrepancy). We prove that the estimate returned by the algorithm is almost similarly accurate as the estimate that an optimal oracle strategy (that would know the variations of the function everywhere) would return, and provide a finite-sample analysis.

Many practitioners who use the EM algorithm complain that it is sometimes slow. When does this happen, and what can be done about it? In this paper, we study the general class of bound optimization algorithms - including Expectation-Maximization, Iterative Scaling and CCCP - and their relationship to direct optimization algorithms such as gradient-based methods for parameter learning. We derive a general relationship between the updates performed by bound optimization methods and those of gradient and second-order methods and identify analytic conditions under which bound optimization algorithms exhibit quasi-Newton behavior, and conditions under which they possess poor, first-order convergence. Based on this analysis, we consider several specific algorithms, interpret and analyze their convergence properties and provide some recipes for preprocessing input to these algorithms to yield faster convergence behavior. We report empirical results supporting our analysis and showing that simple data preprocessing can result in dramatically improved performance of bound optimizers in practice.

Here we propose a novel model family with the objective of learning to disentangle the factors of variation in data. Our approach is based on the spike-and-slab restricted Boltzmann machine which we generalize to include higher-order interactions among multiple latent variables. Seen from a generative perspective, the multiplicative interactions emulates the entangling of factors of variation. Inference in the model can be seen as disentangling these generative factors. Unlike previous attempts at disentangling latent factors, the proposed model is trained using no supervised information regarding the latent factors. We apply our model to the task of facial expression classification.

We describe a probabilistic (generative) view of affinity matrices along with inference algorithms for a subclass of problems associated with data clustering. This probabilistic view is helpful in understanding different models and algorithms that are based on affinity functions OF the data. IN particular, we show how(greedy) inference FOR a specific probabilistic model IS equivalent TO the spectral clustering algorithm.It also provides a framework FOR developing new algorithms AND extended models. AS one CASE, we present new generative data clustering models that allow us TO infer the underlying distance measure suitable for the clustering problem at hand. These models seem to perform well in a larger class of problems for which other clustering algorithms (including spectral clustering) usually fail. Experimental evaluation was performed in a variety point data sets, showing excellent performance.

Collaborative filtering (CF) allows the preferences of multiple users to be pooled to make recommendations regarding unseen products. We consider in this paper the problem of online and interactive CF: given the current ratings associated with a user, what queries (new ratings) would most improve the quality of the recommendations made? We cast this terms of expected value of information (EVOI); but the online computational cost of computing optimal queries is prohibitive. We show how offline prototyping and computation of bounds on EVOI can be used to dramatically reduce the required online computation. The framework we develop is general, but we focus on derivations and empirical study in the specific case of the multiple-cause vector quantization model.

Group elevator scheduling is an NP-hard sequential decision-making problem with unbounded state spaces and substantial uncertainty. Decision-theoretic reasoning plays a surprisingly limited role in fielded systems. A new opportunity for probabilistic methods has opened with the recent discovery of a tractable solution for the expected waiting times of all passengers in the building, marginalized over all possible passenger itineraries. Though commercially competitive, this solution does not contemplate future passengers. Yet in up-peak traffic, the effects of future passengers arriving at the lobby and entering elevator cars can dominate all waiting times. We develop a probabilistic model of how these arrivals affect the behavior of elevator cars at the lobby, and demonstrate how this model can be used to very significantly reduce the average waiting time of all passengers.

We present the language {m P}{cal C}+ for probabilistic reasoning about actions, which is a generalization of the action language {cal C}+ that allows to deal with probabilistic as well as nondeterministic effects of actions. We define a formal semantics of {m P}{cal C}+ in terms of probabilistic transitions between sets of states. Using a concept of a history and its belief state, we then show how several important problems in reasoning about actions can be concisely formulated in our formalism.