Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models are typically learned via fixed truncations of the infinite state space or local Monte Carlo proposals that make small changes to the state space. We develop an inference algorithm for the sticky hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model that scales to big datasets by processing a few sequences at a time yet allows rapid adaptation of the state space cardinality. Unlike previous point-estimate methods, our novel variational bound penalizes redundant or irrelevant states and thus enables optimization of the state space. Our birth proposals use observed data statistics to create useful new states that escape local optima. Merge and delete proposals remove ineffective states to yield simpler models with more affordable future computations. Experiments on speaker diarization, motion capture, and epigenetic chromatin datasets discover models that are more compact, more interpretable, and better aligned to ground truth segmentations than competitors. We have released an open-source Python implementation which can parallelize local inference steps across sequences.

Low rank matrix completion plays a fundamental role in collaborative filtering applications, the key idea being that the variables lie in a smaller subspace than the ambient space. Often, additional information about the variables is known, and it is reasonable to assume that incorporating this information will lead to better predictions. We tackle the problem of matrix completion when pairwise relationships among variables are known, via a graph. We formulate and derive a highly efficient, conjugate gradient based alternating minimization scheme that solves optimizations with over 55 million observations up to 2 orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art (stochastic) gradient-descent based methods. On the theoretical front, we show that such methods generalize weighted nuclear norm formulations, and derive statistical consistency guarantees. We validate our results on both real and synthetic datasets.

The iteration complexity of the block-coordinate descent (BCD) type algorithm has been under extensive investigation. It was recently shown that for convex problems the classical cyclic BCGD (block coordinate gradient descent) achieves an O(1/r) complexity (r is the number of passes of all blocks). However, such bounds are at least linearly depend on $K$ (the number of variable blocks), and are at least $K$ times worse than those of the gradient descent (GD) and proximal gradient (PG) methods.In this paper, we close such theoretical performance gap between cyclic BCD and GD/PG. First we show that for a family of quadratic nonsmooth problems, the complexity bounds for cyclic Block Coordinate Proximal Gradient (BCPG), a popular variant of BCD, can match those of the GD/PG in terms of dependency on $K$ (up to a \log^2(K) factor). Second, we establish an improved complexity bound for Coordinate Gradient Descent (CGD) for general convex problems which can match that of GD in certain scenarios. Our bounds are sharper than the known bounds as they are always at least $K$ times worse than GD. {Our analyses do not depend on the update order of block variables inside each cycle, thus our results also apply to BCD methods with random permutation (random sampling without replacement, another popular variant).

We study the restless bandit associated with an extremely simple scalar Kalman filter model in discrete time. Under certain assumptions, we prove that the problem is {\it indexable} in the sense that the {\it Whittle index} is a non-decreasing function of the relevant belief state. In spite of the long history of this problem, this appears to be the first such proof. We use results about {\it Schur-convexity} and {\it mechanical words}, which are particularbinary strings intimately related to {\it palindromes}.

We study the restless bandit problem where arms are associated with stationary $\varphi$-mixing processes and where rewards are therefore dependent: the question that arises from this setting is that of carefully recovering some independence by `ignoring' the values of some rewards. As we shall see, the bandit problem we tackle requires us to address the exploration/exploitation/independence trade-off, which we do by considering the idea of a {\em waiting arm} in the new Remix-UCB algorithm, a generalization of Improved-UCB for the problem at hand, that we introduce. We provide a regret analysis for this bandit strategy; two noticeable features of Remix-UCB are that i) it reduces to the regular Improved-UCB when the $\varphi$-mixing coefficients are all $0$, i.e. when the i.i.d scenario is recovered, and ii) when $\varphi(n)=O(n^{-\alpha})$, it is able to ensure a controlled regret of order $\Ot\left( \Delta_*^{(\alpha- 2)/\alpha} \log^{1/\alpha} T\right),$ where $\Delta_*$ encodes the distance between the best arm and the best suboptimal arm, even in the case when $\alpha<1$, i.e. the case when the $\varphi$-mixing coefficients {\em are not} summable.

Knowledge tracing, where a machine models the knowledge of a student as they interact with coursework, is an established and significantly unsolved problem in computer supported education.In this paper we explore the benefit of using recurrent neural networks to model student learning.This family of models have important advantages over current state of the art methods in that they do not require the explicit encoding of human domain knowledge,and have a far more flexible functional form which can capture substantially more complex student interactions.We show that these neural networks outperform the current state of the art in prediction on real student data,while allowing straightforward interpretation and discovery of structure in the curriculum.These results suggest a promising new line of research for knowledge tracing.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a ubiquitous algorithm for a variety of machine learning problems. Researchers and industry have developed several techniques to optimize SGD's runtime performance, including asynchronous execution and reduced precision. Our main result is a martingale-based analysis that enables us to capture the rich noise models that may arise from such techniques. Specifically, we useour new analysis in three ways: (1) we derive convergence rates for the convex case (Hogwild) with relaxed assumptions on the sparsity of the problem; (2) we analyze asynchronous SGD algorithms for non-convex matrix problems including matrix completion; and (3) we design and analyze an asynchronous SGD algorithm, called Buckwild, that uses lower-precision arithmetic. We show experimentally that our algorithms run efficiently for a variety of problems on modern hardware.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can be shifted across 2D images or 3D videos to segment them. They have a fixed input size and typically perceive only small local contexts of the pixels to be classified as foreground or background. In contrast, Multi-Dimensional Recurrent NNs (MD-RNNs) can perceive the entire spatio-temporal context of each pixel in a few sweeps through all pixels, especially when the RNN is a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Despite these theoretical advantages, however, unlike CNNs, previous MD-LSTM variants were hard to parallelise on GPUs. Here we re-arrange the traditional cuboid order of computations in MD-LSTM in pyramidal fashion. The resulting PyraMiD-LSTM is easy to parallelise, especially for 3D data such as stacks of brain slice images. PyraMiD-LSTM achieved best known pixel-wise brain image segmentation results on MRBrainS13 (and competitive results on EM-ISBI12).

We consider a sequential learning problem with Gaussian payoffs and side information: after selecting an action $i$, the learner receives information about the payoff of every action $j$ in the form of Gaussian observations whose mean is the same as the mean payoff, but the variance depends on the pair $(i,j)$ (and may be infinite). The setup allows a more refined information transfer from one action to another than previous partial monitoring setups, including the recently introduced graph-structured feedback case. For the first time in the literature, we provide non-asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds on the regret of any algorithm, which recover existing asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds and finite-time minimax lower bounds available in the literature. We also provide algorithms that achieve the problem-dependent lower bound (up to some universal constant factor) or the minimax lower bounds (up to logarithmic factors).

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{mix}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from a single finite-length sample path from the Markov chain, and does not require the knowledge of any parameters of the chain. This stands in contrast to previous approaches, which either only provide point estimates, or require a reset mechanism, or additional prior knowledge. The interval is constructed around the relaxation time $t_{relax}$, which is strongly related to the mixing time, and the width of the interval converges to zero roughly at a $\sqrt{n}$ rate, where $n$ is the length of the sample path. Upper and lower bounds are given on the number of samples required to achieve constant-factor multiplicative accuracy. The lower bounds indicate that, unless further restrictions are placed on the chain, no procedure can achieve this accuracy level before seeing each state at least $\Omega(t_{relax})$ times on the average. Finally, future directions of research are identified.