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Local EGOP for Continuous Index Learning
Kokot, Alex, Hemmady, Anand, Thiyageswaran, Vydhourie, Meila, Marina
We introduce the setting of continuous index learning, in which a function of many variables varies only along a small number of directions at each point. For efficient estimation, it is beneficial for a learning algorithm to adapt, near each point $x$, to the subspace that captures the local variability of the function $f$. We pose this task as kernel adaptation along a manifold with noise, and introduce Local EGOP learning, a recursive algorithm that utilizes the Expected Gradient Outer Product (EGOP) quadratic form as both a metric and inverse-covariance of our target distribution. We prove that Local EGOP learning adapts to the regularity of the function of interest, showing that under a supervised noisy manifold hypothesis, intrinsic dimensional learning rates are achieved for arbitrarily high-dimensional noise. Empirically, we compare our algorithm to the feature learning capabilities of deep learning. Additionally, we demonstrate improved regression quality compared to two-layer neural networks in the continuous single-index setting.
A Targeted Learning Framework for Estimating Restricted Mean Survival Time Difference using Pseudo-observations
A targeted learning (TL) framework is developed to estimate the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) for a clinical trial with time-to-event outcomes. The approach starts by defining the target estimand as the RMST difference between investigational and control treatments. Next, an efficient estimation method is introduced: a targeted minimum loss estimator (TMLE) utilizing pseudo-observations. Moreover, a version of the copy reference (CR) approach is developed to perform a sensitivity analysis for right-censoring. The proposed TL framework is demonstrated using a real data application.
Predicting Parkinson's Disease Progression Using Statistical and Neural Mixed Effects Models: Comparative Study on Longitudinal Biomarkers
Tong, Ran, Wang, Lanruo, Wang, Tong, Yan, Wei
Predicting Parkinson's Disease (PD) progression is crucial, and voice biomarkers offer a non-invasive method for tracking symptom severity (UPDRS scores) through telemonitoring. Analyzing this longitudinal data is challenging due to within-subject correlations and complex, nonlinear patient-specific progression patterns. This study benchmarks LMMs against two advanced hybrid approaches: the Generalized Neural Network Mixed Model (GNMM) (Mandel 2021), which embeds a neural network within a GLMM structure, and the Neural Mixed Effects (NME) model (Wortwein 2023), allowing nonlinear subject-specific parameters throughout the network. Using the Oxford Parkinson's telemonitoring voice dataset, we evaluate these models' performance in predicting Total UPDRS to offer practical guidance for PD research and clinical applications.
OpenAI is launching age prediction for ChatGPT accounts
Bungie's Marathon arrives on March 5 How to claim Verizon's $20 outage credit Similar verification tools have led to high-profile errors recently for other platforms. OpenAI is the latest company to hop on the bandwagon of gating access by users' age. The AI business is beginning a global rollout of an age prediction tool to determine whether or not a user is a minor. "The model looks at a combination of behavioral and account-level signals, including how long an account has existed, typical times of day when someone is active, usage patterns over time,and a user's stated age," the company's announcement states. If an individual is incorrectly characterized by ChatGPT as underage, they will need to submit a selfie to correct the mistake through the Persona age verification platform.
Spat deepens between Elon Musk and Ryanair's O'Leary
Elon Musk has suggested he could buy Ryanair and called for its chief executive to be fired amid a deepening spat between the pair. The budget airline on Tuesday branded the Tesla chief executive an idiot, and used the extraordinary row to promote its January sale. Musk and Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary have been trading insults over the past week after O'Leary rejected the idea of using Musk's Starlink technology to provide wi-fi on flights. The two are among the world's most outspoken business chiefs, with Musk the world's richest man with an estimated net worth of $769bn (£573bn), and O'Leary running Europe's busiest airline. A statement on Ryanair's X account on Tuesday evening said: Perhaps Musk needs a break?? Ryanair is launching a Great Idiots seat sale especially for Elon and any other idiots on'X'.
'Veronika' Is the First Cow Known to Use a Tool
'Veronika' Is the First Cow Known to Use a Tool This is the first recorded instance of a bovine using tools from her environment to relieve an itch--leaving scientists astonished. Justice for cartoonist Gary Larson: A team of scientists has observed, for the first time, a cow using a tool in a flexible manner. The ingenuity of "Veronika," as the animal is called, shows that cattle possess enough intelligence to manipulate elements of their environment and solve challenges they would otherwise be unable to overcome. Veronika is a pet cow in Austria. Nor was she trained to do tricks; on the contrary, for the past 10 years she has developed the ability to find branches in the grass, choose one, hold it with her mouth, and scratch herself with it to relieve skin irritation. Until now, only chimpanzees had convincingly demonstrated the ability to employ tools to improve their living conditions.
Scottish distillery wants to bottle whisky in aluminum, not glass
Stirling Distillery has two years to figure it out. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Scotland's smallest whisky distillery also hopes to be one of the most innovative in time for its first batch's debut. But with only around two years until Sterling Distillery's inaugural liquor matures, it remains to be seen if the company can ditch traditional glass bottles for a material associated more with cheap beer than fine whisky--aluminum. Any serious distillery uses glass bottles for the good stuff.
The Hiring Market Is Truly Terrible Right Now. Job Seekers Are Starting to Do Something Unthinkable to Get Hired.
The Industry I Offered to Take Less Money to Get Hired. In a rough hiring market, a growing number of younger, female job seekers have begun "lowballing" their salary expectations. I know this because I did it myself. If it feels impossible to get hired in today's job market, it's because it is. Greenhouse, a hiring software firm, estimates that when someone applies for a job, they now have a 0.4 percent chance of being hired--meaning you have a better chance of getting into Harvard than securing employment.
Dinosaur bones found underneath parking lot in Dinosaur, Colorado
They're the first fossils found near Dinosaur National Monument in over 100 years. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. For a place named Dinosaur, it's been a while since the small Colorado town revealed any fossils . But after a 101 year lull in discoveries, work was paused on a new parking lot near Dinosaur National Monument, after construction crews uncovered a section of unexpected sandstone. Park staff and paleontologists soon examined the find, and identified sauropod bones most likely belonging to --a massive, long-necked dinosaur from the Late Jurassic period .