This paper, which is Part 1 of a two-part paper series, considers a simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, in which such a learned summary statistic serves as an empirical-likelihood with ameliorative effects in the Bayesian setting, when the exact likelihood function associated with the observation data and the simulation model is difficult to obtain in a closed form or computationally intractable. In particular, a transformation technique which leverages the Cressie-Read discrepancy criterion under moment restrictions is used for summarizing the learned statistics between the observation data and the simulation outputs, while preserving the statistical power of the inference. Here, such a transformation of data-to-learned summary statistics also allows the simulation outputs to be conditioned on the observation data, so that the inference task can be performed over certain sample sets of the observation data that are considered as an empirical relevance or believed to be particular importance. Moreover, the simulation-based inference framework discussed in this paper can be extended further, and thus handling weakly dependent observation data. Finally, we remark that such an inference framework is suitable for implementation in distributed computing, i.e., computational tasks involving both the data-to-learned summary statistics and the Bayesian inferencing problem can be posed as a unified distributed inference problem that will exploit distributed optimization and MCMC algorithms for supporting large datasets associated with complex simulation models.

We introduce the Thresholding Monte Carlo Tree Search problem, in which, given a tree $\mathcal{T}$ and a threshold $θ$, a player must answer whether the root node value of $\mathcal{T}$ is at least $θ$ or not. In the given tree, `MAX' or `MIN' is labeled on each internal node, and the value of a `MAX'-labeled (`MIN'-labeled) internal node is the maximum (minimum) of its child values. The value of a leaf node is the mean reward of an unknown distribution, from which the player can sample rewards. For this problem, we develop a $δ$-correct sequential sampling algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop strategy that has asymptotically optimal sample complexity. We show that a ratio-based modification of the D-Tracking arm-pulling strategy leads to a substantial improvement in empirical sample complexity, as well as reducing the per-round computational cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of arms.

Graph attention networks (GATs) are widely used and often appear robust to noise in node covariates and edges, yet rigorous statistical guarantees demonstrating a provable advantage of GATs over non-attention graph neural networks~(GNNs) are scarce. We partially address this gap for node regression with graph-based errors-in-variables models under simultaneous covariate and edge corruption: responses are generated from latent node-level covariates, but only noise-perturbed versions of the latent covariates are observed; and the sample graph is a random geometric graph created from the node covariates but contaminated by independent Erdős--Rényi edges. We propose and analyze a carefully designed, task-specific GAT that constructs denoised proxy features for regression. We prove that regressing the response variables on the proxies achieves lower error asymptotically in (a) estimating the regression coefficient compared to the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator on the noisy node covariates, and (b) predicting the response for an unlabelled node compared to a vanilla graph convolutional network~(GCN) -- under mild growth conditions. Our analysis leverages high-dimensional geometric tail bounds and concentration for neighbourhood counts and sample covariances. We verify our theoretical findings through experiments on synthetically generated data. We also perform experiments on real-world graphs and demonstrate the effectiveness of the attention mechanism in several node regression tasks.

We introduce \textit{OneFlowSBI}, a unified framework for simulation-based inference that learns a single flow-matching generative model over the joint distribution of parameters and observations. Leveraging a query-aware masking distribution during training, the same model supports multiple inference tasks, including posterior sampling, likelihood estimation, and arbitrary conditional distributions, without task-specific retraining. We evaluate \textit{OneFlowSBI} on ten benchmark inference problems and two high-dimensional real-world inverse problems across multiple simulation budgets. \textit{OneFlowSBI} is shown to deliver competitive performance against state-of-the-art generalized inference solvers and specialized posterior estimators, while enabling efficient sampling with few ODE integration steps and remaining robust under noisy and partially observed data.

Model comparison and calibrated uncertainty quantification often require integrating over parameters, but scalable inference can be challenging for complex, multimodal targets. Nested Sampling is a robust alternative to standard MCMC, yet its typically sequential structure and hard constraints make efficient accelerator implementations difficult. This paper introduces Nested Slice Sampling (NSS), a GPU-friendly, vectorized formulation of Nested Sampling that uses Hit-and-Run Slice Sampling for constrained updates. A tuning analysis yields a simple near-optimal rule for setting the slice width, improving high-dimensional behavior and making per-step compute more predictable for parallel execution. Experiments on challenging synthetic targets, high dimensional Bayesian inference, and Gaussian process hyperparameter marginalization show that NSS maintains accurate evidence estimates and high-quality posterior samples, and is particularly robust on difficult multimodal problems where current state-of-the-art methods such as tempered SMC baselines can struggle. An open-source implementation is released to facilitate adoption and reproducibility.

Large-scale AI evaluation increasingly relies on aggregating binary judgments from $K$ annotators, including LLMs used as judges. Most classical methods, e.g., Dawid-Skene or (weighted) majority voting, assume annotators are conditionally independent given the true label $Y\in\{0,1\}$, an assumption often violated by LLM judges due to shared data, architectures, prompts, and failure modes. Ignoring such dependencies can yield miscalibrated posteriors and even confidently incorrect predictions. We study label aggregation through a hierarchy of dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors. For class-dependent Ising models, the Bayes log-odds is generally quadratic in votes; for class-independent couplings, it reduces to a linear weighted vote with correlation-adjusted parameters. We present finite-$K$ examples showing that methods based on conditional independence can flip the Bayes label despite matching per-annotator marginals. We prove separation results demonstrating that these methods remain strictly suboptimal as the number of judges grows, incurring nonvanishing excess risk under latent factors. Finally, we evaluate the proposed method on three real-world datasets, demonstrating improved performance over the classical baselines.

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $β>0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers and must be re-run for each new dataset and each $β$ value. We give the first fully amortized variational approximation to the tempered posterior family $p_β(θ\mid x) \propto π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)^β$ by training a single $(x,β)$-conditioned neural posterior estimator $q_ϕ(θ\mid x,β)$ that enables sampling in a single forward pass, without simulator calls or inference-time MCMC. We introduce two complementary training routes: (i) synthesize off-manifold samples $(θ,x) \sim π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)^β$ and (ii) reweight a fixed base dataset $π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)$ using self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS). We show that the SNIS-weighted objective provides a consistent forward-KL fit to the tempered posterior with finite weight variance. Across four standard simulation-based inference (SBI) benchmarks, including the chaotic Lorenz-96 system, our $β$-amortized estimator achieves competitive posterior approximations in standard two-sample metrics, matching non-amortized MCMC-based power-posterior samplers over a wide range of temperatures.

We introduce the Value-at-Risk Constrained Policy Optimization algorithm (VaR-CPO), a sample efficient and conservative method designed to optimize Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraints directly. Empirically, we demonstrate that VaR-CPO is capable of safe exploration, achieving zero constraint violations during training in feasible environments, a critical property that baseline methods fail to uphold. To overcome the inherent non-differentiability of the VaR constraint, we employ the one-sided Chebyshev inequality to obtain a tractable surrogate based on the first two moments of the cost return. Additionally, by extending the trust-region framework of the Constrained Policy Optimization (CPO) method, we provide rigorous worst-case bounds for both policy improvement and constraint violation during the training process.

Can a diffusion model trained on bedrooms recover human faces? Diffusion models are widely used as priors for inverse problems, but standard approaches usually assume a high-fidelity model trained on data that closely match the unknown signal. In practice, one often must use a mismatched or low-fidelity diffusion prior. Surprisingly, these weak priors often perform nearly as well as full-strength, in-domain baselines. We study when and why inverse solvers are robust to weak diffusion priors. Through extensive experiments, we find that weak priors succeed when measurements are highly informative (e.g., many observed pixels), and we identify regimes where they fail. Our theory, based on Bayesian consistency, gives conditions under which high-dimensional measurements make the posterior concentrate near the true signal. These results provide a principled justification on when weak diffusion priors can be used reliably.

Discrete flow models (DFMs) have been proposed to learn the data distribution on a finite state space, offering a flexible framework as an alternative to discrete diffusion models. A line of recent work has studied samplers for discrete diffusion models, such as tau-leaping and Euler solver. However, these samplers require a large number of iterations to control discretization error, since the transition rates are frozen in time and evaluated at the initial state within each time interval. Moreover, theoretical results for these samplers often require boundedness conditions of the transition rate or they focus on a specific type of source distributions. To address those limitations, we establish non-asymptotic discretization error bounds for those samplers without any restriction on transition rates and source distributions, under the framework of discrete flow models. Furthermore, by analyzing a one-step lower bound of the Euler sampler, we propose two corrected samplers: \textit{time-corrected sampler} and \textit{location-corrected sampler}, which can reduce the discretization error of tau-leaping and Euler solver with almost no additional computational cost. We rigorously show that the location-corrected sampler has a lower iteration complexity than existing parallel samplers. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method by demonstrating improved generation quality and reduced inference time on both simulation and text-to-image generation tasks. Code can be found in https://github.com/WanZhengyan/Corrected-Samplers-for-Discrete-Flow-Models.