Random Forests (RF) are among the most powerful and widely used predictive models for centralized tabular data, yet few methods exist to adapt them to the federated learning setting. Unlike most federated learning approaches, the piecewise-constant nature of RF prevents exact gradient-based optimization. As a result, existing federated RF implementations rely on unprincipled heuristics: for instance, aggregating decision trees trained independently on clients fails to optimize the global impurity criterion, even under simple distribution shifts. We propose FedForest, a new federated RF algorithm for horizontally partitioned data that naturally accommodates diverse forms of client data heterogeneity, from covariate shift to more complex outcome shift mechanisms. We prove that our splitting procedure, based on aggregating carefully chosen client statistics, closely approximates the split selected by a centralized algorithm. Moreover, FedForest allows splits on client indicators, enabling a non-parametric form of personalization that is absent from prior federated random forest methods. Empirically, we demonstrate that the resulting federated forests closely match centralized performance across heterogeneous benchmarks while remaining communication-efficient.

Many ideas in modern control and reinforcement learning treat decision-making as inference: start from a baseline distribution and update it when a signal arrives. We ask when this can be made literal rather than metaphorical. We study the special case where a KL-regularized soft update is exactly a Bayesian posterior inside a single fixed probabilistic model, so the update variable is a genuine channel through which information is transmitted. In this regime, behavioral change is driven only by evidence carried by that channel: the update must be explainable as an evidence reweighing of the baseline. This yields a sharp identification result: posterior updates determine the relative, context-dependent incentive signal that shifts behavior, but they do not uniquely determine absolute rewards, which remain ambiguous up to context-specific baselines. Requiring one reusable continuation value across different update directions adds a further coherence constraint linking the reward descriptions associated with different conditioning orders.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

Masked diffusion models have emerged as a powerful framework for text and multimodal generation. However, their sampling procedure updates multiple tokens simultaneously and treats generated tokens as immutable, which may lead to error accumulation when early mistakes cannot be revised. In this work, we revisit existing self-correction methods and identify limitations stemming from additional training requirements or reliance on misaligned likelihood estimates. We propose a training-free self-correction framework that exploits the inductive biases of pre-trained masked diffusion models. Without modifying model parameters or introducing auxiliary evaluators, our method significantly improves generation quality on text-to-image generation and multimodal understanding tasks with reduced sampling steps. Moreover, the proposed framework generalizes across different masked diffusion architectures, highlighting its robustness and practical applicability. Code can be found in https://github.com/huge123/FreeCorrection.

Score-based diffusion models are a recently developed framework for posterior sampling in Bayesian inverse problems with a state-of-the-art performance for severely ill-posed problems by leveraging a powerful prior distribution learned from empirical data. Despite generating significant interest especially in the machine-learning community, a thorough study of realistic inverse problems in the presence of modelling error and utilization of physical measurement data is still outstanding. In this work, the framework of unconditional representation for the conditional score function (UCoS) is evaluated for linearized difference imaging in diffuse optical tomography (DOT). DOT uses boundary measurements of near-infrared light to estimate the spatial distribution of absorption and scattering parameters in biological tissues. The problem is highly ill-posed and thus sensitive to noise and modelling errors. We introduce a novel regularization approach that prevents overfitting of the score function by constructing a mixed score composed of a learned and a model-based component. Validation of this approach is done using both simulated and experimental measurement data. The experiments demonstrate that a data-driven prior distribution results in posterior samples with low variance, compared to classical model-based estimation, and centred around the ground truth, even in the context of a highly ill-posed problem and in the presence of modelling errors.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation $σ^2 \mapsto κ(σ^2)$, explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: \textit{anisotropy} across eigenmodes, \textit{inhomogeneity} across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Clustering functional data in the presence of phase variation is challenging, as temporal misalignment can obscure intrinsic shape differences and degrade clustering performance. Most existing approaches treat registration and clustering as separate tasks or rely on restrictive parametric assumptions. We present \textbf{NeuralFLoC}, a fully unsupervised, end-to-end deep learning framework for joint functional registration and clustering based on Neural ODE-driven diffeomorphic flows and spectral clustering. The proposed model learns smooth, invertible warping functions and cluster-specific templates simultaneously, effectively disentangling phase and amplitude variation. We establish universal approximation guarantees and asymptotic consistency for the proposed framework. Experiments on functional benchmarks show state-of-the-art performance in both registration and clustering, with robustness to missing data, irregular sampling, and noise, while maintaining scalability. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/NeuralFLoC-FEC8.

We propose an orthogonal approximate message passing (OAMP) algorithm for signal estimation in the rectangular spiked matrix model with general rotationally invariant (RI) noise. We establish a rigorous state evolution that exactly characterizes the high-dimensional dynamics of the algorithm. Building on this framework, we derive an optimal variant of OAMP that minimizes the predicted mean-squared error at each iteration. For the special case of i.i.d. Gaussian noise, the fixed point of the proposed OAMP algorithm coincides with that of the standard AMP algorithm. For general RI noise models, we conjecture that the optimal OAMP algorithm is statistically optimal within a broad class of iterative methods, and achieves Bayes-optimal performance in certain regimes.

Graph generative modelling has become an essential task due to the wide range of applications in chemistry, biology, social networks, and knowledge representation. In this work, we propose a novel framework for generating graphs by adapting the Generator Matching (arXiv:2410.20587) paradigm to graph-structured data. We leverage the graph Laplacian and its associated heat kernel to define a continous-time diffusion on each graph. The Laplacian serves as the infinitesimal generator of this diffusion, and its heat kernel provides a family of conditional perturbations of the initial graph. A neural network is trained to match this generator by minimising a Bregman divergence between the true generator and a learnable surrogate. Once trained, the surrogate generator is used to simulate a time-reversed diffusion process to sample new graph structures. Our framework unifies and generalises existing diffusion-based graph generative models, injecting domain-specific inductive bias via the Laplacian, while retaining the flexibility of neural approximators. Experimental studies demonstrate that our approach captures structural properties of real and synthetic graphs effectively.

Machine unlearning, the ability to erase the effect of specific training samples without retraining from scratch, is critical for privacy, regulation, and efficiency. However, most progress in unlearning has been empirical, with little theoretical understanding of when and why unlearning works. We tackle this gap by framing unlearning through the lens of asymptotic linear stability to capture the interaction between optimization dynamics and data geometry. The key quantity in our analysis is data coherence which is the cross sample alignment of loss surface directions near the optimum. We decompose coherence along three axes: within the retain set, within the forget set, and between them, and prove tight stability thresholds that separate convergence from divergence. To further link data properties to forgettability, we study a two layer ReLU CNN under a signal plus noise model and show that stronger memorization makes forgetting easier: when the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is lower, cross sample alignment is weaker, reducing coherence and making unlearning easier; conversely, high SNR, highly aligned models resist unlearning. For empirical verification, we show that Hessian tests and CNN heatmaps align closely with the predicted boundary, mapping the stability frontier of gradient based unlearning as a function of batching, mixing, and data/model alignment. Our analysis is grounded in random matrix theory tools and provides the first principled account of the trade offs between memorization, coherence, and unlearning.