Solving large scale Optimal Transport (OT) in machine learning typically relies on sampling measures to obtain a tractable discrete problem. While the discrete solver's accuracy is controllable, the rate of convergence of the discretization error is governed by the intrinsic dimension of our data. Therefore, the true bottleneck is the knowledge and control of the sampling error. In this work, we tackle this issue by introducing novel estimators for both sampling error and intrinsic dimension. The key finding is a simple, tuning-free estimator of $\text{OT}_c(ρ, \hatρ)$ that utilizes the semi-dual OT functional and, remarkably, requires no OT solver. Furthermore, we derive a fast intrinsic dimension estimator from the multi-scale decay of our sampling error estimator. This framework unlocks significant computational and statistical advantages in practice, enabling us to (i) quantify the convergence rate of the discretization error, (ii) calibrate the entropic regularization of Sinkhorn divergences to the data's intrinsic geometry, and (iii) introduce a novel, intrinsic-dimension-based Richardson extrapolation estimator that strongly debiases Wasserstein distance estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our geometry-aware pipeline effectively mitigates the discretization error bottleneck while maintaining computational efficiency.

Root-cause analysis in controlled time dependent systems poses a major challenge in applications. Especially energy systems are difficult to handle as they exhibit instantaneous as well as delayed effects and if equipped with storage, do have a memory. In this paper we adapt the causal root-cause analysis method of Budhathoki et al. [2022] to general time-dependent systems, as it can be regarded as a strictly causal definition of the term "root-cause". Particularly, we discuss two truncation approaches to handle the infinite dependency graphs present in time-dependent systems. While one leaves the causal mechanisms intact, the other approximates the mechanisms at the start nodes. The effectiveness of the different approaches is benchmarked using a challenging data generation process inspired by a problem in factory energy management: the avoidance of peaks in the power consumption. We show that given enough lags our extension is able to localize the root-causes in the feature and time domain. Further the effect of mechanism approximation is discussed.

Kolmogorov--Arnold Networks (KANs) have recently emerged as a structured alternative to standard MLPs, yet a principled theory for their training dynamics, generalization, and privacy properties remains limited. In this paper, we analyze gradient descent (GD) for training two-layer KANs and derive general bounds that characterize their training dynamics, generalization, and utility under differential privacy (DP). As a concrete instantiation, we specialize our analysis to logistic loss under an NTK-separable assumption, where we show that polylogarithmic network width suffices for GD to achieve an optimization rate of order $1/T$ and a generalization rate of order $1/n$, with $T$ denoting the number of GD iterations and $n$ the sample size. In the private setting, we characterize the noise required for $(ε,δ)$-DP and obtain a utility bound of order $\sqrt{d}/(nε)$ (with $d$ the input dimension), matching the classical lower bound for general convex Lipschitz problems. Our results imply that polylogarithmic width is not only sufficient but also necessary under differential privacy, revealing a qualitative gap between non-private (sufficiency only) and private (necessity also emerges) training regimes. Experiments further illustrate how these theoretical insights can guide practical choices, including network width selection and early stopping.

The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In this paper, we introduce the targeted synthetic control (TSC) method, a new two-stage estimator that directly estimates the counterfactual outcome. Specifically, our TSC method (1) yields a targeted debiasing estimator, in the sense that the targeted updating refines the initial weights to produce more stable weights; and (2) ensures that the final counterfactual estimation is a convex combination of observed control outcomes to enable direct interpretation of the synthetic control weights. TSC is flexible and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. Methodologically, TSC starts from an initial set of synthetic-control weights via a one-dimensional targeted update through the weight-tilting submodel, which calibrates the weights to reduce bias of weights estimation arising from pre-treatment fit. Furthermore, TSC avoids key shortcomings of existing methods (e.g., the augmented SCM), which can produce unbounded counterfactual estimates. Across extensive synthetic and real-world experiments, TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.

Pre-trained models have become indispensable for efficiently building models across a broad spectrum of downstream tasks. The advantages of pre-trained models have been highlighted by empirical studies on scaling laws, which demonstrate that larger pre-trained models can significantly reduce the sample complexity of downstream learning. However, existing theoretical investigations of pre-trained models lack the capability to explain this phenomenon. In this paper, we provide a theoretical investigation by introducing a novel framework, caulking, inspired by parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods such as adapter-based fine-tuning, low-rank adaptation, and partial fine-tuning. Our analysis establishes that improved pre-trained models provably decrease the sample complexity of downstream tasks, thereby offering theoretical justification for the empirically observed scaling laws relating pre-trained model size to downstream performance, a relationship not covered by existing results.

We propose Partition Trees, a tree-based framework for conditional density estimation over general outcome spaces, supporting both continuous and categorical variables within a unified formulation. Our approach models conditional distributions as piecewise-constant densities on data adaptive partitions and learns trees by directly minimizing conditional negative log-likelihood. This yields a scalable, nonparametric alternative to existing probabilistic trees that does not make parametric assumptions about the target distribution. We further introduce Partition Forests, an ensemble extension obtained by averaging conditional densities. Empirically, we demonstrate improved probabilistic prediction over CART-style trees and competitive or superior performance compared to state-of-the-art probabilistic tree methods and Random Forests, along with robustness to redundant features and heteroscedastic noise.

We present GROOVE, a semi-supervised multi-modal representation learning approach for high-content perturbation data where samples across modalities are weakly paired through shared perturbation labels but lack direct correspondence. Our primary contribution is GroupCLIP, a novel group-level contrastive loss that bridges the gap between CLIP for paired cross-modal data and SupCon for uni-modal supervised contrastive learning, addressing a fundamental gap in contrastive learning for weakly-paired settings. We integrate GroupCLIP with an on-the-fly backtranslating autoencoder framework to encourage cross-modally entangled representations while maintaining group-level coherence within a shared latent space. Critically, we introduce a comprehensive combinatorial evaluation framework that systematically assesses representation learners across multiple optimal transport aligners, addressing key limitations in existing evaluation strategies. This framework includes novel simulations that systematically vary shared versus modality-specific perturbation effects enabling principled assessment of method robustness. Our combinatorial benchmarking reveals that there is not yet an aligner that uniformly dominates across settings or modality pairs. Across simulations and two real single-cell genetic perturbation datasets, GROOVE performs on par with or outperforms existing approaches for downstream cross-modal matching and imputation tasks. Our ablation studies demonstrate that GroupCLIP is the key component driving performance gains. These results highlight the importance of leveraging group-level constraints for effective multi-modal representation learning in scenarios where only weak pairing is available.

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President Donald Trump told NBC's Tom Llamas that the Iranian regime should be "very worried" at the moment amid high tensions between the two countries.

An National Highway Traffic Safety Administration investigation is examining Waymo after one of its self-driving cars struck a child in Santa Monica, California.