We introduce a method for long-distance maritime route planning in polar regions, taking into account complex changing environmental conditions. The method allows the construction of optimised routes, describing the three main stages of the process: discrete modelling of the environmental conditions using a non-uniform mesh, the construction of mesh-optimal paths, and path smoothing. In order to account for different vehicle properties we construct a series of data driven functions that can be applied to the environmental mesh to determine the speed limitations and fuel requirements for a given vessel and mesh cell, representing these quantities graphically and geospatially. In describing our results, we demonstrate an example use case for route planning for the polar research ship the RRS Sir David Attenborough (SDA), accounting for ice-performance characteristics and validating the spatial-temporal route construction in the region of the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. We demonstrate the versatility of this route construction method by demonstrating that routes change depending on the seasonal sea ice variability, differences in the route-planning objective functions used, and the presence of other environmental conditions such as currents. To demonstrate the generality of our approach, we present examples in the Arctic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. The techniques outlined in this manuscript are generic and can therefore be applied to vessels with different characteristics. Our approach can have considerable utility beyond just a single vessel planning procedure, and we outline how this workflow is applicable to a wider community, e.g. commercial and passenger shipping.

Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier is'holding on by its fingernails', experts say, after discovering that it has retreated twice as fast as previously thought over the past 200 years. The West Antarctica glacier – which is about the size of Florida – has been an important consideration for scientists trying to make predictions about global sea level rise. The potential impact of its retreat is huge because a total loss of Thwaites and its surrounding icy basins could raise global sea levels by up to 10 feet. That is why it is widely nicknamed the'Doomsday Glacier.' For the first time, scientists mapped in high-resolution a critical area of the seafloor in front of Thwaites that gives them a window into how fast the glacier has retreated and moved in the past.

Methods of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) are used in geoscientific applications to gain insights into the decision-making strategy of Neural Networks (NNs) highlighting which features in the input contribute the most to a NN prediction. Here, we discuss our lesson learned that the task of attributing a prediction to the input does not have a single solution. Instead, the attribution results and their interpretation depend greatly on the considered baseline (sometimes referred to as reference point) that the XAI method utilizes; a fact that has been overlooked so far in the literature. This baseline can be chosen by the user or it is set by construction in the method s algorithm, often without the user being aware of that choice. We highlight that different baselines can lead to different insights for different science questions and, thus, should be chosen accordingly. To illustrate the impact of the baseline, we use a large ensemble of historical and future climate simulations forced with the SSP3-7.0 scenario and train a fully connected NN to predict the ensemble- and global-mean temperature (i.e., the forced global warming signal) given an annual temperature map from an individual ensemble member. We then use various XAI methods and different baselines to attribute the network predictions to the input. We show that attributions differ substantially when considering different baselines, as they correspond to answering different science questions. We conclude by discussing some important implications and considerations about the use of baselines in XAI research.

In terms of the operation of microgrids, optimal scheduling is a vital issue that must be taken into account. In this regard, this paper proposes an effective framework for optimal scheduling of renewable microgrids considering energy storage devices, wind turbines, micro turbines. Due to the nonlinearity and complexity of operation problems in microgrids, it is vital to use an accurate and robust optimization technique to efficiently solve this problem. To this end, in the proposed framework, the teacher learning-based optimization is utilized to efficiently solve the scheduling problem in the system. Moreover, a deep learning model based on bidirectional long short-term memory is proposed to address the short-term wind power forecasting problem. The feasibility and performance of the proposed framework as well as the effect of wind power forecasting on the operation efficiency are examined using IEEE 33-bus test system. Also, the Australian Wool north wind site data is utilized as a real-world dataset to evaluate the performance of the forecasting model. Results show the effective and efficient performance of the proposed framework in the optimal scheduling of microgrids.

Direct localization (DLOC) methods, which use the observed data to localize a source at an unknown position in a one-step procedure, generally outperform their indirect two-step counterparts (e.g., using time-difference of arrivals). However, underwater acoustic DLOC methods require prior knowledge of the environment, and are computationally costly, hence slow. We propose, what is to the best of our knowledge, the first data-driven DLOC method. Inspired by classical and contemporary optimal model-based DLOC solutions, and leveraging the capabilities of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), we devise a holistic CNN-based solution. Our method includes a specifically-tailored input structure, architecture, loss function, and a progressive training procedure, which are of independent interest in the broader context of machine learning. We demonstrate that our method outperforms attractive alternatives, and asymptotically matches the performance of an oracle optimal model-based solution.

The trustworthiness of neural networks is often challenged because they lack the ability to express uncertainty and explain their skill. This can be problematic given the increasing use of neural networks in high stakes decision-making such as in climate change applications. We address both issues by successfully implementing a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), where parameters are distributions rather than deterministic, and applying novel implementations of explainable AI (XAI) techniques. The uncertainty analysis from the BNN provides a comprehensive overview of the prediction more suited to practitioners' needs than predictions from a classical neural network. Using a BNN means we can calculate the entropy (i.e. uncertainty) of the predictions and determine if the probability of an outcome is statistically significant. To enhance trustworthiness, we also spatially apply the two XAI techniques of Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values. These XAI methods reveal the extent to which the BNN is suitable and/or trustworthy. Using two techniques gives a more holistic view of BNN skill and its uncertainty, as LRP considers neural network parameters, whereas SHAP considers changes to outputs. We verify these techniques using comparison with intuition from physical theory. The differences in explanation identify potential areas where new physical theory guided studies are needed.

In late 1914, explorer Ernest Shackleton and 27 crewmen sailed into the icy waters around Antarctica. Their state-of-the-art ship Endurance stretched 144 feet, with three towering masts, its hull ultra-reinforced to resist crumpling in the floating ice. The crew's plan was to hike across the frozen continent, but the sea had other ideas. Endurance got stuck off the coast and was slowly crushed by the floating ice, forcing the men into one of the most famous feats of survival in history. They endured for over a year, scurrying across ice floes to hunt penguins and seals, before reaching an uninhabited island.

The diversity of El Ni\~no events is commonly described by two distinct flavors, the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types. While the remote impacts, i.e. teleconnections, of EP and CP events have been studied for different regions individually, a global picture of their teleconnection patterns is still lacking. Here, we use Forman-Ricci curvature applied on climate networks constructed from 2-meter air temperature data to distinguish regional links from teleconnections. Our results confirm that teleconnection patterns are strongly influenced by the El Ni\~no type. EP events have primarily tropical teleconnections whereas CP events involve tropical-extratropical connections, particularly in the Pacific. Moreover, the central Pacific region does not have many teleconnections, even during CP events. It is mainly the eastern Pacific that mediates the remote influences for both El Ni\~no types.

Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from rescaling low-resolution climate models. We propose a statistical approach, called NN-GPR, using Gaussian process regression (GPR) with an infinitely wide deep neural network based covariance function. NN-GPR requires no assumptions about the relationships between models, no interpolation to a common grid, no stationarity assumptions, and automatically downscales as part of its prediction algorithm. Model experiments show that NN-GPR can be highly skillful at surface temperature and precipitation forecasting by preserving geospatial signals at multiple scales and capturing inter-annual variability. Our projections particularly show improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification skill in regions of high variability, which allows us to cheaply assess tail behavior at a 0.44$^\circ$/50 km spatial resolution without a regional climate model (RCM). Evaluations on reanalysis data and SSP245 forced climate models show that NN-GPR produces similar, overall climatologies to the model ensemble while better capturing fine scale spatial patterns. Finally, we compare NN-GPR's regional predictions against two RCMs and show that NN-GPR can rival the performance of RCMs using only global model data as input.

The world's southernmost ocean, the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica, plays an important role in the global climate because its waters contain large amounts of carbon dioxide. A new international study, in which researchers from the University of Gothenburg participated, has examined the complex processes driving air-sea fluxes of gasses, such as carbon dioxide. The research group is now delivering new findings that shed light on the area's important role in climate change. "We show how the intense storms that often occur in the region increase ocean mixing and bring carbon dioxide-rich waters from the deep to the surface. There has been a lack of knowledge about these complex processes, so the study is an important key to understanding the Southern Ocean's significance for the climate and the global carbon budget," says Sebastiaan Swart, professor of oceanography at the University of Gothenburg and co-author of the study.